687
FXUS64 KOHX 151742
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Hot and humid conditions continue through the end of the week
  with triple digit heat indices. A Heat Advisory remains in
  effect for most of Middle Tennessee through Wednesday.

- Low rain chances mainly for the Plateau this weekend with higher
  rain chances returning early next week.

- A gradual cooldown is on tap Sunday into early next week, but
  temperatures remain above-normal for the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Heat impacts continue to be the main story through the end of the
week as a very strong area of high pressure dominates the region.
High temperatures this afternoon are forecast to reach into the
upper-90s to near 100 degrees. For BNA, the forecast high
temperature for today is 99 degrees which would break the daily
record of 98 degrees set back in 1927. A 100-degree reading isn`t
out of the question either with latest NBM probabilities giving
about a 50-60% chance of getting there. Much of the same is expected
on Wednesday with temperatures once again reaching into the upper-
90s with triple digit heat indices. With strong subsidence, dry
conditions will prevail with no rain expected

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

This hot and dry pattern is going nowhere through the end of the
week as this high pressure stays overhead through Friday.
Temperatures will stay in the upper-90s through Friday with readings
continuing to flirt with daily records. An extension of the Heat
Advisory may be needed through the end of the week. While some spots
may not technically hit heat advisory criteria, these forecast
temperatures are at least 10 degrees above normal, and this
prolonged heat wave will make for major heat risk. The high finally
shifts west this weekend, and temperatures will fall ever so slowly.
A pattern change looks to finally arrive early next week as an upper-
level trough tracks to the north, sending a cold front south. This
will finally drop temperatures below 90 degrees and reintroduce
medium rain chances to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR weather continues through the TAF period. Winds prevail S to
SW generally 5-10 kts during the afternoon with periodic gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  98  75  98 /   0  10   0   0
Clarksville    75  99  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     67  90  67  90 /   0  10   0  10
Columbia       73  99  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     71  93  70  94 /   0  10   0   0
Jamestown      69  90  69  90 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   72  96  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   74  99  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        76  97  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TNZ005>010-023>033-
056>065-075-077-078-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Sizemore