218
FXUS64 KOHX 220521
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1221 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1219 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

- Near normal temperatures and medium rain chances (40-60%) for
  the weekend. No severe weather is expected.

- Fall-like temperatures are on the way for the work week, with
  highs 10-20 degrees below normal expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Much of the same for Friday, with partly cloudy skies, temperatures
in the upper 80s to low 90s, and low storm chances through the
afternoon. Saturday also looks similar, but with slightly higher
storm chances during the afternoon. Not expecting any severe
storms, with little to no wind shear and poor lapse rates. That
said, there will be decent moisture return Saturday so any storms
that do develop, could produce heavy rain at times. Furthermore,
looking aloft, there will be a good amount of dry air, so we could
see some stronger downdrafts winds with the strongest cells that
develop on Saturday. Any activity that does develop through
Saturday evening will diminish after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Sunday brings the much anticipated cold front with cooler
temperatures and lower dewpoints. Some isolated showers are
possible with frontal passage, mainly over the Cumberland Plateau.
Cooler air arrives Monday and sticks around through next week.
Not seeing a lot of rain chances during the week, with the drier
airmass near the surface. There is some moisture that moves into
the midlevel mid next week, but only expecting some increased
cloud cover Monday into Tuesday. By mid next week, high pressure
builds further east. This will bring our high temperature back
into the mid to upper 80s west of the Plateau by late week. That
said, dewpoints remain in the 50s so conditions will still feel
fairly pleasant out there.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at BNA/MQY/CKV for the
forecast period. Fog is expected to impact CSV/SRB through 13z.
There is a low chance a shower impacts CSV/SRB during the
afternoon/evening hours so a PROB30 group was included. Winds will
generally be out of the N/NE at BNA/MQY/CKV around 4-7 kts. Winds
at CSV/SRB will be variable at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      91  71  90  69 /  10  10  60  20
Clarksville    90  67  91  66 /   0   0  10  10
Crossville     83  66  80  65 /  40  20  80  50
Columbia       91  69  89  67 /  10  10  70  20
Cookeville     86  68  83  67 /  30  20  80  40
Jamestown      85  66  81  65 /  20  10  80  50
Lawrenceburg   89  69  87  66 /  20  10  70  20
Murfreesboro   91  70  88  68 /  20  10  70  30
Waverly        89  68  90  66 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Reagan