441
FXUS64 KOHX 040129
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
829 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 817 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

- Flash Flood Watch continues for a large portion of Middle TN
  through Sunday morning. Any storms could quickly cause an issue
  anywhere in the watch between now and then.

- Tornado Watch has been cancelled, though some storms are
  possible in our northwestern quadrant before midnight. The
  tornado threat is very low in this area, but hail and wind could
  be an issue, still.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Currently in a lull here in Middle TN. All convective products,
including the watch, have been cancelled or ended for the time
being. For the rest of tonight, we should be relatively quiet --
unless you`re in the northwest quadrant of the mid-state. Ongoing
storms in west TN are expected to move into this area between 930
and 10 pm. Heavy rain will be the biggest issue, by far. As
saturated as everybody is after yesterday and today, any storms
could cause additional flooding issues very quickly (many areas
already have active Flash Flood Warnings issued). Hail is a
possibility with some of these storms, but a lower threat. That is
it for now. We`ll be doing the full forecast package here in few
hours and we`ll take a look at tomorrow and especially Saturday
regarding the severe/flooding threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 903 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Latest SPC mesoscale discussion states occasional supercell
structures continue to be observed this morning with convection
moving across middle/northeast TN. With some heating/destabilization
ongoing south of the front that, there will be some potential for
storm intensification with cells that can remain rooted near the
boundary, which may move further north through the day. With
MLCAPE expected to increase through the 500-1000 J/kg along/south
of the front and favorable wind profiles expected to persist
through the day, some threat for all severe hazards could evolve
with time near the boundary, with an isolated hail and damaging
wind threat north of the boundary.

Latest HREF depicts storms training over Middle TN through
tonight then there is decent agreement that a break will develop
late tonight into Friday morning. By 7 AM Friday morning, most
storms look to be limited to North and West over SE KY and W of
the TN River. There is some risk for isolated strong storms to
develop Friday afternoon then activity diminishes through the
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 903 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Come Saturday morning, a more organized line of storms looks to
redevelop and work there way across Middle TN from the NW to the
SE. There will be a severe threat with these storms, with severe
hazards possible. Storms will be slow to push E across the state,
finally moving on out through Sunday afternoon. Flooding will be
an ongoing concern through the first of next week.

A much needed break from storms will set up by Monday with the
next chance for rain on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

MVFR CIGs are likely late tonight into the morning hours. IFR
conditions will be mostly confined to thunderstorms. Thunderstorms
will continue off and on until around midnight for CKV, BNA and
MQY. Beyond that timeframe showers or statiform rain is more
likely. Some thunder may be embedded. Another round of storms is
possible tomorrow afternoon but activity will likely be more
isolated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      62  86  69  84 /  60  40  20  50
Clarksville    57  83  68  79 /  70  70  50  80
Crossville     66  82  64  82 /  20  20   0  10
Columbia       64  86  68  85 /  40  20  10  40
Cookeville     68  83  67  83 /  30  20  10  20
Jamestown      66  83  65  84 /  30  20  10  20
Lawrenceburg   70  85  68  84 /  30  20  10  30
Murfreesboro   63  86  68  85 /  40  20  10  30
Waverly        59  83  68  81 /  70  50  40  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ005>011-023>031-
056>060-062-093.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Hurley
LONG TERM....Hurley
AVIATION.....Hurley