170
FXUS64 KOHX 090353
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1053 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1047 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

- Low shower and storm chances (less than 20 percent) this
  weekend. Chances will increase to medium (40 to 60 percent) by
  next Tuesday and Wednesday. The severe storm risk remains very
  low.

- High temperatures will be above normal over the next week. Heat
  index values will also climb over the next several days,
  reaching into the low-100s next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Quiet night is in store for Middle TN as today`s storms have come to
an end. Skies are clearing and winds are calm. This combined with
today`s rainfall will mean that patchy fog develops overnight.
Highest confidence in patchy fog is along the Plateau where
Crossville is already reporting some reduced visibility. Any fog
that does develop will burn away after sunrise. Overall, a
relatively calm weekend is even in store as broad ridging
develops over the area. This ridging will result in warmer
temperatures as highs each day will be in the mid-80s for the
Plateau and into the low-90s elsewhere. Southerly flow will
persistent though which will pull moisture up into Middle TN. This
moisture will be just enough to keep low (20% or less) rain
chances in the forecast this weekend. But this moisture will also
be enough to make humidity levels rise. Heat index values on
Saturday will push into the mid-90s west of the Plateau, but on
Sunday, heat indices will be approaching triple digits near the
Tennessee River.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

At the start of the new work week, high pressure remains overhead
with southerly flow continuing to advect moisture into the area.
This keeps our highs in the 90s for most, but the high humidity will
keep heat indices near triple digits - particularly across the
western half of Middle TN. This continued moisture advection will
also raise rain chances up to roughly 20-40% Monday. Tuesday and
Wednesday will feature a shortwave moving over the Ohio River
Valley. With this system providing better forcing, this does raise
rain chances up to at least 40-60% with best chances each afternoon
and evening with these dirunally-driven storms. Don`t see much of a
signal for severe weather, but typical thunderstorm hazards of gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain are all on the table.
Temperatures do cool just a couple degrees mid-week with the
passage of this disturbance.

High pressure takes hold of the area again late week which warms
temperatures back up into the mid-90s. Unfortunately, enough low-
level moisture keeps our humidity levels high to result in heat
indices pushing into the low triple digits again. This moisture
will also keep low chances for storms in the forecast through the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at BNA/MQY/CKV for the taf
period. There is a medium chance of fog developing after 06z at
SRB/CSV causing MVFR/IFR vis. Any fog should dissipate by 13z with
VFR conditions for the remainder of the forecast. Winds will
generally be out of the SE at less than 5 kts overnight and
increasing to 4-7 kts after 15z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  92  73  93 /   0  10   0  20
Clarksville    71  92  71  93 /   0  10   0  10
Crossville     64  85  64  86 /  10  10   0  20
Columbia       70  90  69  92 /   0  10   0  20
Cookeville     67  86  67  89 /  10   0   0  20
Jamestown      65  85  66  87 /  10  10   0  20
Lawrenceburg   69  89  69  90 /  10  10   0  20
Murfreesboro   69  91  70  93 /  10  10   0  20
Waverly        70  90  70  92 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Reagan