196
FXUS64 KOHX 221803
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1203 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Colder air in place this afternoon with northerly winds and partial
cloud cover. Temperatures are generally in the 40s. Quite a bit of
stratus still in place to our north and northwest. Models lean
toward bringing this coverage down across our area through at least
the first half of tonight. We could see some partial clearing west
of I-65 after midnight. Thus, Low temps tonight look like 30s for
the area but we could see some near 30F lows in some of our western
counties depending on any clearing. The surface high bringing in the
colder air currently resides in the eastern Dakotas. This feature
will drop quickly south and will be positioned over the mid and deep
south by Saturday morning. Sunshine will return during the day but
another cold night will follow. Wind flow will return to southerly
on Sunday with a zonal upper flow bringing some high level
cloudiness across the area.

For the near term temps, again, we will start out near normal which
feels rather cold! But then, a zonal pattern will be in play with
rising heights and we will again be a good 10 degrees above
normal on Sunday afternoon. Looks like mid 60s for BNA. Otherwise,
I just dont see a freeze yet for BNA. Looks like mid 30s for the
next 2 overnights and then the warmup begins.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

In the extended forecast, a weak frontal system is expected Monday
night with some shower activity. Maybe a quarter of an inch or so.
Following this, a zonal pattern will continue with a warm front
lifting northward on Wednesday. Some upper level energy will work
upon the front as it stalls. Frontogenesis will commence with strong
low level forcing setting up and rain beginning by Wednesday night.
The approaching shortwave in the post frontal sector will allow for
the shower activity to continue into Thanksgiving Day. Rainfall
amounts of 1-2 inches looks possible. Maybe a rumble or two of
thunder for Wednesday night, although it looks like mostly
elevated instability.

Thanksgiving Day and night, we have some colder air wrapping in.
It may be cold enough along the Plateau for a flake or two of snow
on the back side as the precip exits.

For the extended temps, mild on Monday. Then turning cooler through
the period. Look for falling temps into the 40s on Thanksgiving Day.
Maybe...just maybe...the 1st freeze could occur at BNA on Friday
morning the 29th or Saturday morning the 30th. We are certainly
overdue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Cloud deck persists across Middle TN, but everybody has gone VFR
for the time being. This won`t last as MVFR cigs are expected to
return for all terminals after 02Z this evening. CSV might even
see IFR by 06Z. Cats will start to improve 16Z/Sat.

Winds will be westerly, then become northwesterly overnight with
continued breezy conditions. Winds should start to relax before
dawn on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      51  37  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    49  34  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     44  34  51  31 /  10   0   0   0
Columbia       51  32  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     46  35  51  35 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      45  34  50  33 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   51  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   51  33  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        50  34  55  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Unger