561
FXUS64 KOHX 250722
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
122 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

We are much warmer tonight compared to 24 hours ago with
temperatures in the 50s for most of the area. Clouds are moving
into the area ahead of today`s system. A surface low is organizing
over western Illinois with a cold front extending southwestward.
The surface low will move east-northeastward through the day with
the cold front approaching the Tennessee River around 00z this
evening. Showers will spread over the area late this afternoon
through the evening hours. We are mainly expecting showers but an
isolated rumble of thunder cannot be completely ruled out. The
showers will shut off from west to east with the showers clear of
the plateau by daybreak. Behind the front, we will be cooler with
highs in the 50s on Tuesday vs the 60s to near 70 degree highs
we`ll see today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 100 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Temperatures will drop into the 30s Tuesday night. It looks like
BNA will remain above freezing which will clear the way to
obtaining the record for the latest freeze in Nashville. The next
system will arrive Wednesday afternoon as a surface low lifts out
of the Red River Valley toward our area. There are still some
differences in the exact track of the low with the Euro members
continuing to bring the low just north of Middle Tennessee. The
GFS has slightly moved northward compared to earlier runs. The
latest solution has the low tracking overhead Middle Tennessee.
Depending on the track, we may hear some thunder in the south, but
severe weather is not expected. Rain totals have come down
slightly with median values around 0.5-1".

Much colder air will move in behind the system with pretty much
all locations dropping below freezing Thursday night. Highs Friday
and Saturday will be in the 40s and lows will be in the 20s. It
looks like even colder air will arrive at the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1032 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Mid and high level clouds will increase tonight, and by mid-Monday
morning, cigs will lower to MVFR. Rain is then expected to move
into the area from the west after 18Z ahead of an approaching cold
front. This rain is expected to be light, and lightning chances
remain very low. Rain will gradually come to an end from west to
east after 00Z, and winds will become northwesterly behind the
cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  40  54  36 /  30  50   0   0
Clarksville    67  35  51  35 /  60  40   0   0
Crossville     63  38  53  32 /  20  80   0   0
Columbia       69  38  54  33 /  20  50   0   0
Cookeville     65  40  52  34 /  30  80   0   0
Jamestown      65  39  52  32 /  30  80   0   0
Lawrenceburg   68  39  54  33 /  20  60   0   0
Murfreesboro   69  40  54  32 /  20  60   0   0
Waverly        67  35  53  35 /  60  40   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Clements