523
FXUS64 KOHX 181726
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1223 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- Very hot and humid conditions with triple digit heat indices
  continue. A Heat Advisory is in effect through Sunday for most
  of Middle Tennessee.

- Low rain chances mainly for the Plateau this afternoon and again
  this weekend with a low chance for strong thunderstorm winds
  Saturday.

- Temperatures cool mid next week, but still remaining above
  normal, as low to medium rain chances return areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Another day of potentially record-breaking heat as late morning
temperatures are already at 90 degrees in some spots. Ridging is
beginning a slow retreat southwest, but it`s influence will continue
through Monday. Nashville`s high temperature record today is 99
(1953); the forecast high today is 99. If we reach that, today would
make 4 consecutive days of either breaking or tying the high
temperature record. Highs will remain around the same values
through this weekend with warm overnight lows in the low to mid
70s west of the Plateau. There is another very low chance for an
isolated storm this afternoon, but as with similar days, most will
remain dry. As the ridge pulls west, a weak shortwave will be
allowed to ride across the ridge tomorrow, bringing a higher
chance for scattered afternoon thunderstorms mainly for areas
along and east of I-65. Widespread severe weather is not
anticipated, but a few strong to severe wind gusts could occur in
the strongest storms given steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE
values over 1000 J/kg.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

The heat will stick with us through the start of next week. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect through Sunday for heat indicies of 105+.
A trough will move through Tuesday that will allow for better, more
widespread rain and thunderstorm chances to return to the forecast.
The troughing pattern looks to remain in place through the week
with long range guidance hinting at a strong upper low dipping
down over the southeast. Should this happen, we would finally see
a pumpkin spice-esque change in our temperatures. The NBM is also
optimistic with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s by the end of
next week and overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s....Yes,
50s and 60s!! We`ll continue to monitor 500mb long range trends
and keep our fingers crossed that this pattern shift is on the
way.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Mostly VFR conditions expected with light north to northwest
winds. The only exception will be MVFR fog at CSV and VLIFR fog at
SRB again tonight. Improvement to VFR should be quick after
sunrise Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  99  75  99 /  10  10  10   0
Clarksville    72  99  73  99 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     67  91  67  89 /  10  30  10  20
Columbia       72 100  72 100 /  10  10   0   0
Cookeville     70  94  70  93 /  10  20  10  10
Jamestown      68  90  68  89 /  10  30  10  10
Lawrenceburg   71  98  71  97 /  10  20  10  10
Murfreesboro   72 100  73  99 /  10  10  10  10
Waverly        73  98  74  98 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ005>010-023>033-
056>065-075-077-078-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Unger