570
FXUS64 KOHX 020506
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1206 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1201 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

- Low to medium rain chances in the forecast through Thursday. Severe
  weather is not expected.

- Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s for highs through the forecast
  period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Clouds continue to be present after the shower activity died off
tonight. There`s plenty of moisture in the area that will stick
around through mid-week, meaning more rain chances to come. Tuesday
into Wednesday still looks to be the best chance for rain, with the
NBM showing a medium chance of a tenth on an inch (50 - 70%) and a
low to medium (30 - 40%) chance of half an inch. Judging from the
showers today that produced over an inch of rain in some locations,
I would say this is underestimating the moisture available to these
showers and storms. I would not be surprised to see more 1 - 2" plus
accumulations by mid-week.

As for temperatures, won`t be as cool tonight as last night. Only
dipping into the low to mid 60s tonight, with highs on Tuesday in
the mid to upper 70s on the Cumberland Plateau to the mid 80s
further west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Thursday brings another opportunity for low to medium rain chances,
as a cold front makes its way through the area. After that, things
dry out thanks to the drier air behind that front and a secondary
cold front guidance shows coming through Friday night. Temperatures
look to stay in the upper 70s to mid 80s through the work week,
adding to days with below normal temperatures for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Due to rainfall from yesterday, patchy fog has already developed
across portions of southern and eastern Middle TN. This will
result in MVFR to IFR visibilities through about 13Z to 14Z,
mainly impacting CSV and SRB. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will redevelop by late Tuesday morning and into the early
afternoon. Probabilities in impacts to terminals is highest at
BNA, MQY, and CKV, and thus have continued the mention of PROB30
at these sites. Storm coverage will likely taper off between 00Z
and 02Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  64  86  66 /  60  40  20  30
Clarksville    88  61  88  64 /  40  30  10  40
Crossville     75  57  76  60 /  40  40  50  20
Columbia       84  62  86  65 /  60  50  30  20
Cookeville     78  59  79  61 /  50  50  40  30
Jamestown      75  58  78  61 /  40  40  50  20
Lawrenceburg   82  61  84  63 /  60  50  30  20
Murfreesboro   83  61  86  64 /  60  50  30  20
Waverly        86  61  87  63 /  50  40  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Clements