039
FXUS64 KOHX 241707
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1207 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1202 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

- Daily rain and thunderstorm chances continue into mid-week.
  Severe threat is low, but if there are any, the main hazard
  will be strong winds.

- Monitoring flooding potential next work week. Continue to
  monitor the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1109 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

The stationary boundary draped across the mid-south is expected to
remain in place through the weekend. With flow from the Gulf
interacting with the boundary, moisture is forced upward and causing
showers and thunderstorms for the next few days. Showers are
currently moving into our SW areas from western Tennessee, with some
rumbles of thunder in there occasionally. Analyzing current
satellite imagery, it doesn`t appear that a break in the cloud cover
is in store for the area this morning into the afternoon. Therefore,
my concern for severe weather continues to wane with today`s
activity. Most of the stronger activity is closer to the placement
of the stationary boundary in Alabama, but some heavy downpours
could be possible in our counties that border AL. PWATs are already
approaching 75% of sounding climatology this morning, and are only
expected to continue to rise into the work week.

Sunday, we are in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe
weather in our counties that border Alabama, and a marginal (level 1
out of 5) south and west of the Nashville metro. MUCAPE values in
guidance range from 1000 J/kg to around 2500 J/kg in the slight
risk area, so definitely in the range to see some severe storms.
If any were to develop, the main hazard would be strong winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1109 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Over the course of the next week, middle Tennessee will receive
quite a bit of rainfall. PWATs are near 2" in some locations Monday
into Tuesday (period we expect heaviest rainfall), indicating that
heavy rain will be no problem for the current airmass. Probabilities
for greater than 2.5 inches through Thursday are 50-80% with the
higher probabilities being near the AL state line. When you increase
those probabilities to over 4", they go down to 20-40%, with the
highest amounts along I-40 in our western counties. This doesn`t
match with current forecasted QPF amounts, so there`s still some
disagreement on where the heaviest precipitation will fall in middle
Tennessee next week. With those amounts of rainfall though, we are
monitoring the potential for flooding and river flooding issues over
the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Rain showers will continue to stream into the area along with
increasing mid-level clouds. No impacts in cigs/visibilities are
expected at any terminals from this rain. Additional rain showers
will move into the area by late Sunday morning. There is a low
chance that cigs drop to MVFR after 12Z, but confidence was not
high enough to include in this TAF issuance. Otherwise, winds will
stay easterly to southeasterly at less than 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      61  77  59  77 /  50  90  70  60
Clarksville    59  74  58  73 /  50  90  50  50
Crossville     55  71  56  72 /  50  90  80  50
Columbia       61  77  60  77 /  60  90  70  70
Cookeville     58  72  57  73 /  50  90  80  50
Jamestown      53  72  53  72 /  40  80  70  40
Lawrenceburg   61  77  60  77 /  60  90  70  70
Murfreesboro   61  77  60  77 /  60  90  80  60
Waverly        59  74  56  72 /  60  90  60  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Clements