575
FXUS64 KOHX 041124
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
524 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 509 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

- Areas of fog will likely develop again overnight, but confidence
  in widespread dense fog is low.

- Dry through Thursday. Solid warmup with above normal
  temperatures starting tomorrow.

- Next chance of rain/storms Friday afternoon/evening. High chance
  of thunderstorms, with at least a low chance of a few strong
  storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 921 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

A clear and cool night is in the works. Lows in the morning should
dip into the 30s for just about everybody in Middle TN. The
likelihood of fog development is medium to high, but it definitely
won`t be as widespread as we saw last night and likely will be
relegated to areas near bodies of water.

After only seeing highs in the low 60s/upper 50s today, temperatures
are going to rebound nicely tomorrow. With plenty of sun and the
boundary layer (though weak) swung around to the south, afternoon
highs over the next few days are going to be well above normal. In
fact, many will see temperatures climb into the low 70s for the
second half of the work week with lots of sun.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 921 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Our next chance of rain enters the picture Friday. I`ve been talking
the last couple of nights about these storms and I still say this
system is worth watching. Now look, I`m not saying we`re going to
have a big severe weather outbreak, by any means. However,
forecast soundings are nothing to ignore. Mid-level lapse rates
north of 6.5 deg C/Km and one of these typical low-CAPE/high
shear setups, at least strong storms are on the table Friday
afternoon/evening. I`m looking at NBM probs and with 300+ J/Kg of
CAPE at about 70% in our southwest quadrant and paired with 50 kts
of bulk shear along with triple digit helicities? We should have
at least *some* organization. Now, what is this system`s
limitations? The first thing you see is the bulk of the dynamics
are well off to the north with the parent low FAR into Canada.
But, the front itself is sharp and there should still be plenty of
lift thanks to the upper low over the Great Lakes region. We`re
still 4 days out, so there`s plenty of time to hash out any
specifics, but I`m just throwing it out there.

Behind Friday`s frontal passage, there has been some hint at us
getting clipped by another system on Sunday. However, the moisture
seems a bit starved with this one. What I will say is that the air
mass behind Sunday`s upper trough might be the coldest of the fall
so far. Most of our models are showing extended temperatures "much
below normal temperatures". NBM probs of morning lows below freezing
Tuesday morning next week are already 70-80%. For now, get outside
this week and take advantage of some fantastic weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

After lingering patchy MVFR to LIFR fog dissipates by 15Z at CKV
and SRB, expect mostly clear skies through the rest of the TAF
period. Light winds will become southerly 5-10 kts through the 00Z
time frame, then weaken to around 5 kts of less overnight. With
light winds, fog development is not anticipated again tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  48  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    69  48  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     64  44  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       70  45  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     66  46  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      64  45  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   69  45  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   69  46  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        68  47  71  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....05