175
FXUS64 KOHX 200451
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1151 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1145 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

- Low to medium rain/storm chances on Wednesday, with best
  chances south and east during the afternoon. Thunderstorms may
  produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.

- More seasonal temperatures expected through this weekend with
  low rain chances.

- Temperatures below-normal forecast early to mid next week with
  a much drier air mass.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Middle Tennessee is currently situated amidst a positively-tilted
upper-level trough that stretches generally from Texas through
the Great Lakes. A weak surface front is also approaching from the
north and is currently maintaining isolated to scattered showers
and t-storms across Kentucky and Tennessee despite decreased
instability. This activity will persist overnight into the early
morning hours. With afternoon heating, another band of showers and
t-storms should blossom near the front. Rain chances are best for
areas south/southeast today with northerly flow bringing drier
air in across the northern counties. Highs will still be somewhat
hot, but nowhere near the values achieved on Tuesday (we nearly
tied the record at BNA). With continued progression of the front,
more stable, cooler conditions are expected for Thursday with no
mentionable rain chances at this time. We`ll find lows in the
60s, to near 70, Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Fair weather is forecast to persist into this weekend with upper-
level ridging remaining in place across the Southwest and the
trough across the East. We`ll enjoy lower humidity values and
seasonal temperatures each day, and there`s little to no
rain/storm chances for areas west of the Plateau. Ensemble/NBM
guidance continues to paint low chances for the higher terrain,
but there`s low confidence this will pan out. Either way, eyes are
directing toward a more substantial upper-level disturbance
dipping down with the Polar jet on Sunday. This will be
accompanied by a cold front moving through the region by Monday
morning, though it`s not carrying much chance for rain due to
limited pre-frontal moisture. Thus, our first "taste of Fall" is
set to arrive early next week with temperatures well below normal
appearing likely. Lows in 50s are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday
mornings, with highs in the 70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

A line of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain is currently
over KCKV. This line will work east over the next 3 hours and
gradually weaken as it does, there is about a 30% chance that
scattered storms make it to the Nashville area. Mainly VFR
conditions overnight with just a low chance of lingering showers
early in the night. There will also be a low chance of MVFR patchy
fog for KCSV and KSRB between 09 and 13z. Scattered thunderstorms
develop south and east of Nashville after 18z. Light northerly
winds under 5 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      99  76  94  71 /  20  20  30  10
Clarksville    99  73  92  68 /  50  40  10   0
Crossville     90  69  85  65 /  10  10  60  30
Columbia       99  74  93  69 /  10  20  40  20
Cookeville     92  71  88  66 /  10  10  50  20
Jamestown      91  69  85  66 /  10  10  50  30
Lawrenceburg   96  72  92  68 /  10  20  50  30
Murfreesboro   99  74  94  69 /  10  20  40  20
Waverly        99  72  92  67 /  40  40  20   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Mueller