005
FXUS64 KOHX 221127
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
627 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 627 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

- Near normal temperatures and medium rain chances (40-60%) for
  the weekend. No severe weather is expected.

- Fall-like temperatures are on the way for the work week, with
  highs 10-20 degrees below normal expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Much of the same for Friday, with partly cloudy skies, temperatures
in the upper 80s to low 90s, and low storm chances through the
afternoon. Saturday also looks similar, but with slightly higher
storm chances during the afternoon. Not expecting any severe
storms, with little to no wind shear and poor lapse rates. That
said, there will be decent moisture return Saturday so any storms
that do develop, could produce heavy rain at times. Furthermore,
looking aloft, there will be a good amount of dry air, so we could
see some stronger downdrafts winds with the strongest cells that
develop on Saturday. Any activity that does develop through
Saturday evening will diminish after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Sunday brings the much anticipated cold front with cooler
temperatures and lower dewpoints. Some isolated showers are
possible with frontal passage, mainly over the Cumberland Plateau.
Cooler air arrives Monday and sticks around through next week.
Not seeing a lot of rain chances during the week, with the drier
airmass near the surface. There is some moisture that moves into
the midlevel mid next week, but only expecting some increased
cloud cover Monday into Tuesday. By mid next week, high pressure
builds further east. This will bring our high temperature back
into the mid to upper 80s west of the Plateau by late week. That
said, dewpoints remain in the 50s so conditions will still feel
fairly pleasant out there.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR conditions today at TAF sites west of the Cumberland Plateau.
FG is affecting sites SRB and CSV this morning, but should start
to clear out here shortly after sunrise. After that, light winds
and smooth sailing until around 8z when FG presents itself again
in Middle Tennessee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      91  71  91  69 /   0  10  50  20
Clarksville    90  66  91  66 /   0   0  10  10
Crossville     84  66  81  65 /  30  20  70  50
Columbia       90  69  89  67 /  10  10  60  20
Cookeville     86  68  84  67 /  20  10  70  40
Jamestown      86  66  82  65 /  20  10  70  50
Lawrenceburg   89  68  87  66 /  20  20  60  20
Murfreesboro   91  70  89  68 /  10  10  60  30
Waverly        89  66  91  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Holley