366
FXUS64 KOHX 031720
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

- Overall quiet weather for the end of the week into the weekend, with
  warmer temperatures.

- Afternoon heat indices could reach the low 100s during the
  holiday weekend.

- More rain chances practically every day next week, accumulations
  look on the lighter side.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Satellite showing largely clear skies across middle Tennessee this
morning, with some mid to high level clouds along the TN/AL state
line. Sunny skies and warm temperatures will prevail today and
Independence Day, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s across the
area. Not much going on with high pressure overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

As the ridge weakens into the weekend, moisture will return with
southerly flow into the mid-south. This will lead to triple digit
heat indices, though we are expecting them to remain below advisory
criteria. The increase in PWATs to around 1.75" also means that an
isolated shower cannot be ruled out on the weekend. Chances for
showers will increase as we get closer to starting the new work
week, with some of our highest chances for rain Sunday night into
Monday night.

Mid-level troughing will drop south into the week, allowing
disturbances to have more of an effect on middle Tennessee through
the mid-week period. With further moisture advection into the area
and these disturbances traversing across the Ohio Valley, showers
and thunderstorms become increasingly likely through the remainder
of the period. With the usual caveat of precipitation amounts being
higher in thunderstorms, daily accumulations look pretty light right
now each day in the work week. Total accumulations through Thursday
are forecasted to be less than one inch, with a 20 - 40% chance of
accumulations greater than 1". As for temperatures, as the ridge
weakens, temperatures will return to near normal, which is still in
the upper 80s and 90s so the warmth continues.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with just scattered
mid to high level clouds. Light winds will generally be
northerly. Low chance for patchy fog overnight, particularly along
the Plateau, but confidence was not high enough to put in KSRB or
KCSV TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    70  92  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     63  89  66  89 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia       67  93  70  94 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     66  91  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      64  90  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   65  92  70  92 /   0   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   67  94  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
Waverly        69  92  71  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Clements