114
FXUS64 KOHX 121740
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1240 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

- Rain and thunderstorms continue through the weekend, best
  chances are in the afternoon/evening hours.

- Risk of severe weather is low, however, localized heavy rain,
  gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with
  isolated stronger storms.

- Warmth continues into the work week, with 20 - 30% chance of
  heat indices greater than 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1046 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

As of 15z, the radar is quiet across Middle Tennessee. There are
some scattered Cu that have developed along and east of I-65. This
is in response to a weak shortwave that is noted on water vapor
imagery. Behind the wave, PWAT values are notably lower with a
pocket in West Tennessee indicating values of less that 1.5" while
the plateau currently have PWAT values greater than 1.8". Visible
satellite shows a lack of Cu growth over West Tennessee due to
the drier sinking air. Looking at the 12z CAMS, the afternoon
storm activity is pretty suppressed over Middle Tennessee thanks
to this more convectively-hostile air. That doesn`t mean we won`t
see a couple of isolated storms pop up, but I feel like the CAMs
are onto something with the limited activity through the mid
afternoon. The one area we`ll need to watch is the northwest late
in the afternoon and into the evening as storms develop over
northwest AR, eastern MO, and southern IL and push eastward. This
could move into our area after 00z and gradually weaken through
03-04z as it moves east.

A couple additional scattered showers and storms may develop
overnight as deeper moisture advects back into the area. Sunday will
see the potential for diurnal convection mainly after 17z. As far as
the potential for severe storms today and Sunday, outside the
isolated risk for a strong wind gust with storms moving into the
northwest this evening, I don`t see much potential. Rainfall
could be heavy with some of the activity, but storm motions should
be around 20 mph which is progressive enough to prevent a flash
flooding threat. Highs today and Sunday will be in the mid 80s on
the plateau and the upper 80s to lower 90s elsewhere. Afternoon
heat index values will be around 100 degrees west of the plateau
each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1046 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

As we move into the next work week, we`ll keep the diurnal storm
chances. Activity on Monday and Tuesday will be fairly scattered in
nature with Middle Tennessee along the northern periphery of the
upper high. The upper high may weaken some as we get into the mid to
late week period which will increase the diurnal activity. Highs
through the week will remain in the upper 80s to mid 90s with
afternoon heat indicies in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Overnight
lows will be in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

AT BNA, VFR conditions to prevail over the next 24 hours. The lone
exception would be if a thunderstorm is able to move through this
evening. Confidence was not high enough to mention in the TAF at
this time as there should be a decaying broken line of storms
approaching from the northwest. Overall, it currently does not
look like this storm potential will materialize but will be
watching it. A few storms tried to develop nearby around noon, but
the best chances should remain east of the terminal through this
afternoon. Otherwise, expect light southwest winds with some high
clouds rolling in tonight.

VFR conditions to prevail at all TAF sites. Best chances for
storms are at KSRB and KCSV now through late afternoon, though
lightning activity has been lacking so prevailed VCSH due to lack
of current thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorm chances then shift
northwest, and have inserted a PROB30 TS mention at KCKV for a
broken line of storms expected to approach the terminal.
Otherwise, expect light winds and a few mid to high level clouds
moving through overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  93  74  93 /  30  40  10  40
Clarksville    72  90  73  91 /  30  40  20  40
Crossville     67  86  67  88 /  20  40  10  40
Columbia       71  92  71  92 /  20  50  10  40
Cookeville     70  87  69  89 /  30  30  10  40
Jamestown      68  86  68  88 /  20  40  20  40
Lawrenceburg   70  91  71  92 /  20  50  10  40
Murfreesboro   71  92  72  94 /  20  40  10  40
Waverly        70  90  71  91 /  20  50  10  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Husted