549
FXUS64 KOHX 160538
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1238 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Very hot and humid conditions with triple digit heat indices will
  continue. A Heat Advisory has been extended through Saturday
  for most of Middle Tennessee.

- Slight cooldown early next week, but overall temperatures will stay
  above normal for the foreseeable future.

- Low rain chances mainly for the Plateau this weekend. Low rain chances
  area-wide early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Dangerous heat is the main concern this week, especially during
the afternoon hours. A powerful 6000+ meter 500 mb ridge over the
region will keep conditions hot and humid with no meaningful rain
potential.

BNA reached a record-setting 100 degrees Tuesday and there is no
reason to doubt it will happen again Wednesday as the ridge
intensifies directly overhead. Record high temperatures are in
jeopardy each day this week.

The high pressure will decrease slightly as the center of the
ridge retreats to our southwest late week, but Heat Risk levels
will remain in the Major to Extreme category (level 3 to 4 out of
4).

A stray shower cannot be completely ruled out, but certainly
no meaningful rainfall will occur this week. Look for worsening
drought conditions and very crunchy lawns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

As the ridge weakens slightly, diurnal convection chances will
increase this weekend. This means rain chances mostly less than 30
percent, and mostly for the Plateau. Mostly low rain chances will
develop area-wide early next week as a front oozes southward
toward our area. Unfortunately, it is not looking like much rain.
Also, even if the heat does back off, temperatures are expected to
stay on the hot side of normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period with quiet weather. Light
southerly winds up to 5 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville     100  75  99  75 /  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    99  74 100  73 /   0   0   0  10
Crossville     89  67  91  67 /  10   0  10   0
Columbia       99  72 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     92  70  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      89  68  91  69 /  10   0  10   0
Lawrenceburg   97  71  98  71 /  10   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   98  73 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        99  75  99  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ005>010-023>033-
056>065-075-077-078-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Mueller