814
FXUS64 KOHX 181130
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
630 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- Very hot and humid conditions with triple digit heat indices
  continue. A Heat Advisory is in effect through Sunday for most
  of Middle Tennessee.

- Low rain chances mainly for the Plateau this weekend with a low
  chance for strong thunderstorm winds Saturday.

- Temperatures cool mid next week, but still remaining above
  normal, as low to medium rain chances return areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Nothing is new in the short range as a record-setting heatwave
continues. A very strong high pressure system remained over the
area with 6000+ meter 500 mb heights. Although the ridge center
will gradually shift to our southwest over the next couple of
days, the heat will persist. We have extended the Heat Advisory
through Sunday for continued triple digit heat indices and Heat
Risk in the Major to Extreme levels (3 to 4 out of 4). Thursday`s
high of 99 at BNA tied the record from 1896 and more record highs
may occur through the weekend.

No meaningful rain is expected. A few tiny showers will pop up
each day, mainly over the Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Confidence is increasing for heat relief next week. The big ridge
will weaken and pull southwest as a trough develops over the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Models show this trough deepening
and bringing lower heights across the TN Valley. NBM confidently
lowers our high temperatures into the 80s by mid to late week.
These numbers are still warmer than normal, so no pumpkin spice
weather just yet!

The breakdown of the strong ridge will allow chances for
scattered showers and storms to increase, but no substantial,
prolonged rain is seen. The best chance for some rain will occur
Tuesday as the developing trough to our north drops a frontal
zone into the area. Pops will top out at 30 to 50 percent most
areas with 60 percent for the Plateau. Drier air is shown after
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Mostly VFR conditions expected with light north to northwest
winds. The only exception will be MVFR fog at CSV and VLIFR fog at
SRB again tonight. Improvement to VFR should be quick after
sunrise Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      98  74  98  74 /   0  10  10   0
Clarksville    98  72  98  72 /   0   0  10   0
Crossville     90  67  90  65 /   0  10  30  10
Columbia      100  72  99  71 /   0   0  10   0
Cookeville     94  70  93  69 /   0  10  20  10
Jamestown      90  68  89  67 /  10  20  30  10
Lawrenceburg   97  71  97  70 /   0   0  10   0
Murfreesboro   99  72  99  71 /   0  10  10  10
Waverly        98  73  97  73 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ005>010-023>033-
056>065-075-077-078-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Unger