872
FXUS64 KOHX 040007
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
707 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 658 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

- A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible
  Thursday. Gusty winds will be the primary threat.

- Temperatures will peak on Friday in the 90s, and decrease back
  into the 70s and 80s by the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 707 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

A line of showers and thunderstorms has developed along an outflow
boundary from Livingston southwest to Fairview. This line will
slowly move south with the storms weakening as we loose daylight.
Isolated gusty winds up to 40-45 mph will be possible with any of
the stronger cells over the next hour or so. Thunderstorm and
shower activity will diminish by 10 PM. Much of the overnight will
be dry with lows falling into the low to mid 60s. An upper level
low will push a cold front south overnight and the front will
reach the TN/KY line shortly after daybreak. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front during
the morning with better development in the afternoon mainly south
and east of Nashville. Given bulk shear values 30-35 knots and
CAPE 1500+ j/kg we could see some stronger storms with wind being
the main threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

All has been quiet so far today with temperatures steadily rising
near 80 degrees. An elongated stationary front is currently analyzed
stretching from TX up through the Ohio River Valley in
association with a vorticity maximum embedded within the trough.
As this feature continues its dive towards the southeast,
thunderstorm chances will slightly increase into the afternoon.
Though coverage looks much less than yesterday, some convection
will be possible in the peak of daytime heating. Shear and mid-
level lapse rates remain poor, though surface lapse rates are
steeper today, so the strongest storms could carry a wind threat
this afternoon.

The frontal boundary will make some eastward progress through
tonight, keeping low PoP (~10-20%) during the overnight hours.
Moving into Thursday, the trough axis will continue its eastward
progression, bringing the surface frontal boundary through Middle
TN. Upper level flow will increase, most notably across the
eastern half of the CWA, and this will result in higher bulk shear
values between 35-40 kts. Mid-level lapse rates will see a slight
increase to near 6.0 C/km, but this is still unfavorable for
large hail development and any long-lived updrafts. Low-level
lapse rates will remain quite steep near 9 C/km, and coupled with
more sufficient shear, a few strong to severe storms containing
gusty winds up to 60 mph will be possible during the
afternoon/early evening. CAMs are currently resolving possibly 2
broken lines of storms, though outflows from ongoing morning
convection to our north could aid in additional development.
Activity will wane with the loss of daytime heating and as the
better forcing moves away from the area. Some lingering clouds
and patchy fog will be around overnight into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Surface high pressure will build to our southwest by Friday, leading
to a brief surge in temperatures into the upper 80s to mid 90s.
The trough will make another push east late Friday, bringing a
much more substantial cold front across Middle TN. Temperatures
Saturday continue to drop with each run of the deterministic
guidance with forecast highs now currently in the 70s. Some post
frontal showers and storms are likely late Friday, carrying into
Saturday. Similar atmospheric conditions will be in place Friday
night minus the large amount of instability. A few thunderstorms
capable of producing gusty winds will be possible with slightly
better mid-level lapse rates. Sunday is looking dry and
comfortable with highs in the 70s again and dew points
temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s! Temperatures will
gradually warm back into the 80s to start the new week as a broad
and much less amplified trough develops across the midwest. Models
disagree on trough placement at this point in the forecast,
though the pattern looks similar enough to maintain low chance
rain/storms by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

A broken band of showers and thunderstorms had formed along an
outflow boundary pushing south southeast. This activity will
impact BNA and MQY and vicinity through 02Z with localized downpours
and gusty winds to 30KT in the stronger cells. Otherwise,
overnight conditions will be mainly VFR across the area with light
south winds and scattered to broken mid level clouds.

Daytime Thursday will bring a frontal passage accompanied by a low
chance for showers and storms at CKV, medium chance at BNA and
MQY and a high probability at CSV and SRB. Stronger cells will
contain downpours and gusty winds. Outside the storms, VFR is
expected with southwest winds near 10KT, becoming northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  86  65  94 /  40  60   0  20
Clarksville    65  82  62  94 /  40  30   0  20
Crossville     60  77  60  85 /  30  70  20  10
Columbia       64  87  64  95 /  40  40   0  10
Cookeville     61  79  61  87 /  30  80  20  10
Jamestown      61  77  60  85 /  40  80  20  10
Lawrenceburg   63  85  64  92 /  30  50   0  10
Murfreesboro   64  86  64  94 /  30  60   0  10
Waverly        63  83  62  94 /  20  30   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....13