715
FXUS64 KOHX 250052
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
652 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Much milder this evening than yesterday at this time with current
temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to around 50 on the
Plateau to near 60 in our west. This wide range of temperatures is
due to strengthening WAA as shown by the 00Z OHX sounding, which
will keep lows much warmer than we saw last night in the 40s to
low 50s. An even warmer day is on tap for tomorrow with highs in
the 60s to around 70 ahead of our next cold front which will move
through late Monday afternoon into Monday evening before exiting
the area early Tuesday morning. Widespread showers are anticipated
along the front with high likely to categorical pops warranted,
although rainfall amounts will be on the light side with only up
to 0.2 inches of rain anticipated. Forecast already has this well
covered and only made minor tweaks to grids and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Thin, high clouds are about the extent of anything to talk about in
the short term part of the forecast. There`s plenty of sun still
able to weasel its way to the surface, which is making for a
pleasantly mild day so far. Temperatures might struggle a little to
fully get to the forecast highs, but low to middle 60s will be very
common before the sun sets this evening. In addition, with weak
southerly flow having started up, overnight lows won`t be near as
chilly as they were last night. A few low 40s are likely on the
Plateau, but upper 40s to around 50 degrees will blanket the rest of
Middle TN when the sun rises tomorrow.

The main story for the upcoming Thanksgiving week: two shots at
rain. As we`ve been advertising, the first will come late tomorrow
afternoon and into the evening hours. Part of a system that will
push a surface low from the center of the country into the Great
Lakes region, a cold front will move through the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. No thunder is expected with this system in Middle TN. In
fact, most the rain will be rather tepid. 0.50" or less is
expected anywhere in the area and precip should be out of here
well before sunrise Tuesday. High pressure will replace Monday`s
rain on Tuesday and while cooler temperatures will ensue, nothing
too drastic is expected. Maybe a couple of degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

The second shot at rain moves into the area late Wednesday afternoon
and will likely provide us a good amount of rain. 1 to 2 inches is
still in the cards between Wednesday night and Thursday and we`ll
take all we can get. The biggest questions remain, however: will we
hear any thunder and/or see any snow. Some fairly drastic
differences remain across our models regarding the track of the
surface low with this system and this will make a big difference in
what we end up seeing. A more northerly track, such as in the Euro,
means zero snow chances and the possibility of some thunder (no
severe) across our southern counties Wednesday evening. A more
southerly track means zero thunder and at least a chance of seeing
some white stuff (only the Plateau, but little to no accumulation)
before dawn on Thanksgiving Day. At this time, the NBM is splitting
the difference and until we start getting into some of the higher
resolution solutions, I will, too. In the end, whichever solution
verifies, I don`t think this system will be very impactful - other
than to dampen things, if you`re deep-frying your turkey.

What will likely be the most impactful thing in regards to this
system is the CP airmass expected behind the front. Models are
actually still in very good agreement about the arrival of this
airmass and temperatures in the low 20s Saturday morning. I`m even
seeing a few sprigs of teens on the Plateau. So, plan to make some
adjustments if you have any outdoor plans this week and get those
parkas ready for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR conditions prevail through tonight with increasing mid to
high clouds and light southerly to southwesterly winds. However,
cigs will gradually lower with MVFR conditions expected at all
terminals by 18Z ahead of an approaching storm system. This system
will bring rain to the area late Monday afternoon with rain
moving in from the west after 20Z. Chance for lightning is very
low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      50  70  40  54 /   0  30  80   0
Clarksville    50  66  35  51 /   0  60  40   0
Crossville     42  64  39  53 /   0  20  90   0
Columbia       48  69  39  54 /   0  20  60   0
Cookeville     45  66  40  52 /   0  30  90   0
Jamestown      44  64  40  52 /   0  30  90   0
Lawrenceburg   47  68  40  54 /   0  20  70   0
Murfreesboro   48  69  40  54 /   0  30  80   0
Waverly        50  66  37  53 /   0  60  50   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Shamburger
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Clements