050
FXUS64 KOHX 101738
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1238 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

- Very low shower and storm chances (less than 10 percent) today.
  Storm chances increase this week, peaking to 40 to 70% on
  Wednesday. Severe weather threat is very low.

- High temperatures will be slightly above normal over the next
  week. Heat index values will reach around 100 for many areas
  through this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

High pressure is still exerting influence in the region today with
some drier air and mid-level subsidence nearly squashing all
rain/storm chances. Only a stray short or thunderstorm is possible
today (PoPs 10% or less). Otherwise, a light southeasterly wind
remains present with mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Highs will
be 1-3 degrees above normal. Tonight will be quiet once again
with lows in the low to mid 70s, with upper 60s in higher terrain.

Despite some strengthening of mid- to upper-level ridging
tomorrow, higher PWs currently situated near the Carolina Coast
will begin to work northwest toward the TN Valley. While the
tropical moisture will remain to our south and east, enough
moisture increase is expected to warrant 10-30% PoPs during peak
afternoon heating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Additional moisture increases are expected on Tuesday as higher
PWs are advected northward into the TN and Ohio Valleys with winds
transitioning to a southerly direction. This will foster higher
rain chances (30-50%) Tuesday afternoon, with a peak in overall
activity for the upcoming week on Wednesday (40-70%). This is due
to ample moisture and a potential weak disturbance aloft moving in
from the west. Generally speaking, the upcoming week will have
daily rain chances (peaking mid to late afternoon) with highs
favoring slightly above normal into next weekend. The combination
of heat and humidity will lead to heat indices in the low 100s at
times. There`s no obvious clues for hazardous weather, though any
stronger storm could pose a risk for gusty winds and heavy
downpours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

VFR conditions continue across Middle TN. Winds are E to SE at 5-7
kts with only a ~10% chances for SHRA or TSRA this afternoon (so
no TAF mention). Relatively calm conditions overnight with patchy
fog possible near SRB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  93  75  91 /   0  20  10  40
Clarksville    72  93  73  91 /   0  10  10  40
Crossville     67  85  68  83 /   0  30  10  50
Columbia       71  91  71  90 /   0  30  10  50
Cookeville     70  87  70  85 /   0  30  10  40
Jamestown      67  86  68  84 /   0  20  10  50
Lawrenceburg   70  89  71  88 /   0  30  10  50
Murfreesboro   71  91  72  90 /   0  30  10  50
Waverly        71  92  71  89 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Sizemore