592
FXUS64 KOHX 051109
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
609 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

- Mostly dry and hot through the weekend with widely scattered
  thunderstorms possible during the afternoon.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances increase next week.

- Heat index values will approach or exceed 100 degrees through at
  least mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 938 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Happy 4th! Or what`s left of it at least. All is quiet across Middle
TN with temperatures in the upper 70s and light winds. The weather
will remain quiet tonight with isolated patchy fog overnight.
Saturday features widely scattered diurnally-driven thunderstorms
that will pose a heavy rain and gusty wind threat. Similar to
previous days, any outflows that kick off of a storm could provide
enough lift to spark another. Activity will diminish after sunset
tomorrow, giving way to another quiet and warm night with lows in
the 70s.

The upper-level high will start breaking down come Sunday with weak
troughing moving into the area. This will increase our rain and
storm chances as we head into the new work week. Models are
currently keeping the majority of the day Sunday dry with the
exception of a few pop-up afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 938 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

PoP chances will increase to 25-40% areawide Monday afternoon as
moisture starts to build back in across Middle TN. Profiles
feature very little bulk shear with values around 10 kts or less
and poor mid- level lapse rates, however, PWAT value do creep back
up near 1.90", so healthy rainfall rates will be possible in any
storms. This same setup will follow into Tuesday. Deterministic
models suggest a front will move through the area mid-week as an
upper- level low traverses the Great Lakes region. Upper-level
winds will increase as this low approaches during the Wednesday
afternoon/evening timeframe, pushing bulk shear values up near 25
to 30 kts, particularly across the northern half of the CWA. Still
several days out, but something to watch. Of note, PWAT values
will continue to increase through the week with values exceeding
2" by mid-week - approaching the Climatological Max for this time
of year, so we will certainly need to keep an eye out for flash
flooding potential in any storms.

With the increase in moisture and our normal summertime
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, heat index values will
gradually rise through the week, though it appears indicies will
largely remain below the Heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees.
Heat advisory or not, it will be hot and uncomfortable out with
feel-like temperatures near or just above 100 degrees, so be sure
to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if you have to be
outdoors through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Fog has developed across the area, with MVFR and IFR vis popping
up at all terminals this morning. Fog should burn off over the
next hour or two, then expecting VFR conditions. Southerly winds
around 5 knots expected during the daytime hours, becoming light
and variable overnight. Low chance for isolated showers and storms
this afternoon, and confidence not high enough on location to put
into the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      96  74  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
Clarksville    95  73  94  73 /  20  10  10  10
Crossville     89  66  89  67 /  10   0  20  10
Columbia       93  71  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
Cookeville     90  69  91  70 /  10   0  20  10
Jamestown      90  67  91  69 /  10   0  20  10
Lawrenceburg   92  71  92  71 /  20  10  10  10
Murfreesboro   95  71  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
Waverly        94  71  93  72 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Barnwell