541
FXUS64 KOHX 131137
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
637 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

- Rain and thunderstorms continue through the weekend, best
  chances are in the afternoon/evening hours.

- Risk of severe weather is low, however, localized heavy rain,
  gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with
  isolated stronger storms.

- Warmth continues into the work week, with 20 - 40% chance of
  heat indices greater than 100 degrees.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 507 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A surface and upper ridge are situated to the immediate east of
Middle Tennessee this morning, so we`ll find ourselves with a
southwesterly surface flow today. With no real changes in air mass
characteristics, we can once again expect plenty of instability
during peak-heating hours, with abundant moisture present and
virtually no shear. PoPs today are running 50-60% across the
entire mid state. Once again, there is very little threat for
severe storms, but any storms that do develop will be capable of
producing gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.
We`ll have to keep an eye out for any slow-movers that produce
high rainfall rates for potential localized flooding. Otherwise,
we expect afternoon temperatures to warm into the lows 90s in many
area, with heat index values reaching the low 100s. We should
stay just below heat advisory criteria, but it`s still going to be
a hot one.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving into Middle Tennessee
from the northwest currently. Not expecting any severe weather
from this line, and it has pretty quickly become outflow dominant
since entering middle Tennessee. Overnight, we could see more
isolated showers thanks to how moist the air mass is (and
continues to become with moisture advection into the area
continuing).

For Sunday, a weak shortwave will be approaching our area, as well
as a front stalling to our north. More numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected once again, and while the severe threat
is low, some localized flooding, gusty winds, and frequent lightning
can be expected from stronger storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Ridging into the work week favors more warm temperatures and
moisture in middle Tennessee. This will lead to continued diurnal
rain chances and hot heat indices through at least mid-week.
Probabilities for over 100 degree heat indices are around 20 - 40%
by mid-week, with higher probability as you get closer to western
Tennessee. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A surface ridge sits to the immediate east of Middle Tennessee
this morning, so expect surface winds to increase from the WSW
during the day. We do expect convection to develop once again
this afternoon through early evening, which we`ll handle for now
with PROB30 remarks during peak heating hours. There is also the
possibility for radiation fog mainly along the Cumberland Plateau
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      93  74  93  75 /  50  30  50  10
Clarksville    90  73  89  73 /  60  40  50  10
Crossville     86  67  88  68 /  60  20  50  10
Columbia       91  72  92  72 /  50  20  50  10
Cookeville     87  69  88  70 /  50  30  50  10
Jamestown      86  68  87  68 /  50  20  60  10
Lawrenceburg   91  70  91  71 /  50  20  50  10
Murfreesboro   93  72  93  72 /  50  20  50  10
Waverly        89  71  90  72 /  50  30  50  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Rose