640
FXUS64 KOHX 150530
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1230 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  Thursday afternoon and night. Greatest chance for severe storms
  will be N of I-40. Strong winds and small hail are the main
  concerns.

- There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  Friday evening into early Saturday morning. Damaging wind gusts
  and large hail are the main concerns.

- Hot weather arrives with high temperatures climbing into the
  upper 80s to near 90 through the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

There is significantly less active weather this evening than last
evening or the one before. The pesky upper low which sparked so
much convection in past days has finally pulled away and we
actually have an upper ridge building over Middle Tennessee. The
00Z sounding from OHX shows plenty of CAPE and a great deal of
moisture, but the instability is elevated owing to a big capping
inversion situated above 850 mb, and not much is getting past that
elevated warm layer. So we can enjoy minimal rain chances over the
forthcoming 24 hrs or so before the next round of active weather
gets going later tomorrow night and especially Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 918 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

The radar scope is almost entire clear this evening. An upper
ridge is building to our west while a weak surface trough is
expected to lift northward across Middle Tennessee overnight. High
pressure over the western Atlantic coupled with a deep surface
low over the eastern Dakotas is producing a warm advection pattern
across much of the southeast, so temperatures will continue to
warm tomorrow. While we aren`t expecting any active weather on
Thursday, the aforementioned surface low is going to slowly push a
boundary toward Middle Tennessee tomorrow night and Friday, with
storms developing late tomorrow night and continuing on Friday and
Friday night. At this time, portions northern Middle Tennessee
are under a marginal risk of severe storms (level 1 out of 5)
tomorrow night and a marginal or slight risk (level 1 or 2 out of
5) across all of Middle Tennessee Friday and Friday night. Given
the warmth and moisture content of the air mass ahead of the
surface boundary, deep instability is expected to develop which
will make the environment more conducive to strong updrafts.
While we are still unsure about exact timing and location of
severe storms, we are currently messaging damaging-straight line
winds as the primary threat with this event.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 918 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Rain and storm chances are likely to persist for several more
days, although there will a greatly lessened severe storm risk
after Friday night/early Saturday once the surface trough comes
through. Indeed, there are low to medium PoPs in the forecast
every day from Saturday at least through next Thursday. Warm
temperatures will continue through the middle of next week, with
readings beginning to taper off starting Thursday and more
seasonal temperatures then settling in. Indeed, the 6-10 day
outlook favors normal to above normal temperatures across Middle
Tennessee and above normal rainfall, while the 8-14 day outlook
favors below normal temperatures and near normal rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

VFR conditions for the TAF period. Watching the possibility of fog
at eastern sites (CSV/SRB) but other sites just have too much dry
air. Winds will increase to gust around 20 knots tomorrow, and
calm after the sun sets.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      89  74  87  71 /  10  40  70  90
Clarksville    89  73  85  69 /  10  50  80  90
Crossville     84  68  82  64 /  10  20  40  90
Columbia       87  72  86  68 /  10  30  60  90
Cookeville     85  70  83  66 /  10  30  60  90
Jamestown      87  68  84  64 /  10  20  70  90
Lawrenceburg   86  72  85  68 /  10  20  50  80
Murfreesboro   88  72  86  69 /  10  30  60  90
Waverly        87  70  85  66 /  20  50  80  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Holley