650
FXUS64 KOHX 210527
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1227 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

- Near normal temperatures through late week and into the weekend.

- Mostly dry weather through the end of the week with showers and
  thunderstorms returning Saturday. Highest chances E of I-65.

- Below normal temperatures next week with much drier air.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Thursday brings drying conditions and near normal temperatures
back over Middle TN. With TN being situated between high pressure
to the west and low pressure to the east, northerly flow will
bring lower dewpoints and a drier airmass over the area. High
temperatures climb into the upper 80s today, but dewpoints will be
much more bearable, in the upper 60s. Overnight, lows drop into
the upper 60s. Overall, a very pleasant day.

Friday looks to be much of the same but with slightly warmer
temperatures, with some areas seeing low 90s. Once again though,
dewpoints will be manageable, around 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Rain chances return Saturday afternoon, mainly east of I-65 as an
inverted surface trough develops over the Cumberland Plateau.
Overall, no severe weather is expected, just some scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Sunday, a cold front brings in much
cooler and drier air through next week. Temperatures drop well
below normal with lows mostly in the 50s (some 40s Plateau) and
highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Some may call this our first look
at "False Fall."

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Low stratus clouds are rotating around the departing low right now
that will bring patchy MVFR to IFR cigs to terminals overnight.
Highest confidence of less than VFR thresholds is at CSV and SRB.
Models are keeping cigs around 3500 ft at BNA and MQY tonight and
current obs match that, but will be monitoring for potential drop
to MVFR. Fog is unlikely overnight due to increased northerly
winds between 5-8 kts, but where winds calm and skies clear, some
patchy fog will be possible. This again is most likely to occur at
CSV and SRB.

VFR conditions prevail beyond 15Z with sustained northerly winds
8-10 kts and occasional gusts to 15 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      88  69  92  71 /   0   0  10  10
Clarksville    87  66  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     83  64  84  66 /  10   0  10  20
Columbia       89  67  92  69 /   0   0  10  10
Cookeville     84  65  87  68 /   0   0  10  10
Jamestown      81  64  85  66 /  10   0  10  10
Lawrenceburg   87  66  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
Murfreesboro   89  67  92  69 /   0   0  10  10
Waverly        86  66  91  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Baggett