Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Versions:
1
391
FGUS73 KOAX 131654
ESFOAX
NEC003-023-025-039-053-055-067-095-107-109-119-127-139-141-147-151-
153-155-159-167-IAC071-085-133-137-145-155-131612-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha NE
1050 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook...
This flood outlook is for the NWS Omaha service area. It covers
the time period through May 16th, 2025.
It includes the following rivers and their tributaries in eastern
Nebraska and southwest Iowa...
Missouri, Niobrara, Platte, Elkhorn, Loup, Big Blue, Salt Creek,
and Nishnabotna Rivers
This outlook is the first in a series of three outlooks for the
spring flood season. You may also refer to the NWS Omaha website
for more information at www.weather.gov/omaha.
...Flood Outlook Summary...
* The risk of minor, moderate, and major flooding is below normal.
* Continue monitoring weather and river conditions--as well as
future outlooks--for any changes to the flood threat. Future
weather--including amount, frequency and extent of precipitation
as well as rate of snowmelt--can be big factors in any potential
spring flood threat.
* Visit www.weather.gov/omaha for the latest information.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 02/15/2025 - 05/16/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Niobrara River
Verdel 8.0 9.5 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Ponca Creek
Verdel 13.5 15.0 17.0 : 5 16 <5 9 <5 <5
:Missouri River
Decatur 35.0 38.0 41.0 : <5 13 <5 8 <5 6
Blair 26.5 28.5 33.0 : <5 20 <5 10 <5 5
Omaha 27.0 32.0 40.0 : 8 36 <5 9 <5 <5
Plattsmouth 26.0 32.0 35.0 : 9 39 <5 11 <5 6
Nebraska City 18.0 23.0 27.0 : 17 53 7 17 <5 <5
Brownville 34.0 38.5 43.0 : 9 56 7 21 <5 9
Rulo 17.0 21.0 26.0 : 11 55 8 27 <5 5
:Elkhorn River
Neligh 11.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Norfolk 12.0 13.0 17.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:North Fork Elkhorn River
Pierce 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 5 14 <5 8 <5 <5
:Elkhorn River
Pilger 12.0 15.0 17.0 : 5 6 <5 5 <5 <5
West Point 12.0 16.0 17.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Winslow 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 6 9 <5 6 <5 5
:Logan Creek
Uehling 18.0 19.0 21.0 : <5 6 <5 6 <5 6
:Maple Creek
Nickerson 11.5 13.0 17.0 : 5 12 5 6 <5 <5
:Elkhorn River
Waterloo 14.0 18.0 21.0 : 7 14 <5 5 <5 <5
:Platte River
Duncan 8.0 9.0 10.0 : 6 9 <5 6 <5 <5
:Shell Creek
Columbus 30.0 31.0 32.0 : 5 6 <5 5 <5 5
:Platte River
North Bend 8.0 10.0 11.5 : 6 12 <5 5 <5 <5
Leshara 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 6 17 <5 5 <5 <5
Ashland 20.0 22.0 23.5 : 6 21 <5 6 <5 <5
:Salt Creek
Roca 19.0 21.5 23.0 : 7 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
North 27th Street 20.5 26.5 29.0 : 6 7 <5 5 <5 <5
Greenwood 20.0 24.0 31.0 : 12 21 7 8 <5 <5
:Wahoo Creek
Ithaca 19.0 20.5 23.0 : 32 45 28 39 <5 <5
:Salt Creek
Ashland 20.0 21.0 26.0 : 16 25 9 15 <5 <5
:Platte River
Louisville 9.0 11.0 12.0 : 9 24 5 6 <5 5
:Big Blue River
Surprise 7.0 10.0 12.0 : 8 12 <5 7 <5 <5
:Lincoln Creek
Seward 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 22 45 13 33 <5 6
:Big Blue River
Seward 18.0 22.0 27.0 : 5 13 <5 6 <5 <5
:West Fork Big Blue River
Dorchester 15.0 22.0 24.4 : 13 28 <5 7 <5 5
:Big Blue River
Crete 21.0 25.0 31.0 : 22 36 8 14 <5 6
:Turkey Creek
Wilber 12.5 16.0 21.0 : 15 27 <5 7 <5 <5
De Witt 23.5 25.0 27.0 : 8 16 6 9 5 6
:Big Blue River
Beatrice 18.0 26.0 32.0 : 20 30 6 9 <5 <5
Barneston 20.0 27.0 33.0 : 20 25 5 10 <5 <5
:Little Blue River
Fairbury 18.5 20.0 23.0 : 7 12 6 10 5 6
:Maple River
Mapleton 21.0 22.0 23.0 : <5 7 <5 7 <5 6
:Little Sioux River
Turin 25.0 28.0 34.5 : 5 8 <5 5 <5 <5
:Soldier River
Pisgah 28.0 29.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Boyer River
Logan 21.0 22.0 25.0 : 5 8 5 7 <5 6
:Weeping Water Creek
Union 25.0 28.0 30.0 : <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:East Nishnabotna River
Red Oak 18.0 22.0 27.0 : 6 28 5 13 <5 5
:West Nishnabotna River
Hancock 14.0 19.0 23.0 : <5 9 <5 7 <5 <5
Randolph 19.0 22.0 27.0 : 5 37 <5 9 <5 5
:Nishnabotna River
Hamburg 25.0 27.5 33.0 : 5 40 5 10 <5 <5
:Little Nemaha River
Auburn 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 7 13 7 11 <5 <5
:North Fork Big Nemaha River
Humboldt 28.0 29.5 31.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Big Nemaha River
Falls City 27.0 30.0 36.0 : 6 11 <5 8 <5 <5
:Nodaway River
Clarinda 23.0 26.0 29.0 : 7 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/15/2025 - 05/16/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Niobrara River
Verdel 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.6 5.3
:Ponca Creek
Verdel 6.0 6.5 6.8 7.5 10.1 12.8 13.6
:Missouri River
Decatur 18.8 19.0 19.8 20.3 24.3 27.1 30.5
Blair 12.2 12.5 13.1 13.8 18.0 21.8 25.7
Omaha 12.8 13.4 14.1 15.4 21.0 24.2 29.3
Plattsmouth 14.6 14.7 15.4 18.1 21.9 24.8 30.9
Nebraska City 8.6 9.0 9.6 12.9 16.7 18.8 23.3
Brownville 23.1 23.6 24.2 26.9 30.5 32.9 40.1
Rulo 5.7 6.5 7.2 9.7 12.8 18.9 23.2
:Elkhorn River
Neligh 1.9 2.2 3.2 4.5 5.8 7.2 8.5
Norfolk 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.5 5.8 9.1
:North Fork Elkhorn River
Pierce 2.1 2.2 3.0 4.5 6.0 8.0 11.6
:Elkhorn River
Pilger 6.1 6.3 7.1 7.6 8.6 9.3 12.1
West Point 3.0 3.2 3.6 4.5 6.0 8.8 11.7
Winslow 8.5 8.6 9.3 11.1 13.1 15.3 18.7
:Logan Creek
Uehling 2.8 3.6 4.4 6.6 10.5 13.2 15.7
:Maple Creek
Nickerson 3.1 3.4 4.0 5.4 7.6 9.1 12.6
:Elkhorn River
Waterloo 2.7 3.2 4.0 6.6 8.9 11.5 15.8
:Platte River
Duncan 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 5.5 7.2 8.7
:Shell Creek
Columbus 10.5 10.5 10.5 16.6 26.7 28.5 30.1
:Platte River
North Bend 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.6 5.9 6.9 8.8
Leshara 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.9 7.4 8.8
Ashland 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.8 18.2 19.4 21.2
:Salt Creek
Roca 1.9 2.2 3.1 3.9 6.9 9.9 20.4
North 27th Street 2.9 3.3 3.9 5.7 11.6 13.9 24.1
Greenwood 3.3 3.9 5.1 8.5 17.9 21.2 27.6
:Wahoo Creek
Ithaca 4.3 4.9 7.6 10.8 21.3 22.1 22.4
:Salt Creek
Ashland 7.3 7.6 9.1 11.5 17.2 20.6 22.1
:Platte River
Louisville 3.8 4.1 4.5 5.9 7.2 8.6 10.7
:Big Blue River
Surprise 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.7 4.0 5.2 9.3
:Lincoln Creek
Seward 4.8 4.8 6.8 9.4 14.3 17.3 18.5
:Big Blue River
Seward 1.7 1.9 2.6 4.7 10.3 14.9 18.6
:West Fork Big Blue River
Dorchester 2.4 3.3 5.1 7.2 10.3 18.5 20.7
:Big Blue River
Crete 8.0 9.4 11.2 14.7 20.1 24.3 26.8
:Turkey Creek
Wilber 2.5 3.1 3.9 7.0 11.7 14.5 14.9
De Witt 10.7 11.0 12.4 14.8 18.2 22.5 27.4
:Big Blue River
Beatrice 4.0 4.9 7.0 10.3 15.1 22.6 26.9
Barneston 6.6 7.3 10.2 13.6 18.7 23.1 26.7
:Little Blue River
Fairbury 7.3 7.9 9.1 11.2 13.6 15.5 21.9
:Maple River
Mapleton 4.9 5.0 5.8 6.4 7.4 8.1 20.0
:Little Sioux River
Turin 7.2 7.6 8.3 9.8 11.8 12.8 24.3
:Soldier River
Pisgah 3.7 4.1 5.3 7.2 9.0 10.1 14.3
:Boyer River
Logan 4.4 4.9 6.0 7.6 9.4 12.9 21.1
:Weeping Water Creek
Union 2.0 2.2 3.2 4.3 6.0 7.1 18.4
:East Nishnabotna River
Red Oak 6.1 6.8 8.9 9.7 11.2 14.2 20.9
:West Nishnabotna River
Hancock 1.7 2.8 4.3 5.4 6.6 7.0 9.8
Randolph 7.9 9.1 10.9 12.7 14.4 15.2 19.9
:Nishnabotna River
Hamburg 8.6 10.0 13.6 15.3 17.3 19.4 26.0
:Little Nemaha River
Auburn 5.4 5.9 8.4 10.2 14.4 18.4 24.2
:North Fork Big Nemaha River
Humboldt 2.9 3.3 4.7 6.2 9.1 13.7 15.7
:Big Nemaha River
Falls City 7.3 8.6 11.3 14.7 19.8 24.9 27.6
:Nodaway River
Clarinda 10.9 11.4 12.1 12.6 14.7 16.8 23.1
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/15/2025 - 05/16/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Niobrara River
Verdel 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
:Ponca Creek
Verdel 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6
:Missouri River
Decatur 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2
Blair 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6
Omaha 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
Plattsmouth 10.5 10.2 10.0 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9
Nebraska City 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6
Brownville 19.7 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.2 19.2
Rulo 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6
:Elkhorn River
Neligh 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
Norfolk 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.4
:North Fork Elkhorn River
Pierce 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.5
:Elkhorn River
Pilger 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.3
West Point 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8
Winslow 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.7
:Logan Creek
Uehling 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1
:Maple Creek
Nickerson 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1
:Elkhorn River
Waterloo 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.6
:Platte River
Duncan 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6
:Shell Creek
Columbus 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5
:Platte River
North Bend 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5
Leshara 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8
Ashland 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.9 13.9
:Salt Creek
Roca 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
North 27th Street 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0
Greenwood 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
:Wahoo Creek
Ithaca 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
:Salt Creek
Ashland 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
:Platte River
Louisville 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4
:Big Blue River
Surprise 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
:Lincoln Creek
Seward 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1
:Big Blue River
Seward 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
:West Fork Big Blue River
Dorchester 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
:Big Blue River
Crete 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.6
:Turkey Creek
Wilber 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4
De Witt 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.4
:Big Blue River
Beatrice 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3
Barneston 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2
:Little Blue River
Fairbury 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5
:Maple River
Mapleton 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0
:Little Sioux River
Turin 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8
:Soldier River
Pisgah 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
:Boyer River
Logan 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
:Weeping Water Creek
Union 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9
:East Nishnabotna River
Red Oak 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0
:West Nishnabotna River
Hancock 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
Randolph 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.5
:Nishnabotna River
Hamburg 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.5
:Little Nemaha River
Auburn 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
:North Fork Big Nemaha River
Humboldt 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
:Big Nemaha River
Falls City 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4
:Nodaway River
Clarinda 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Services National Water Prediction
Service.
...Current Conditions as of 13 February 2025...
* River Levels...
-Due to ongoing drought conditions, river levels are near-to-below
normal.
* River Ice...
-After a warm December, significant cold air in January allowed for
substantial river ice development. Some of that ice moved out
during a warm stretch of weather toward the end of January and
into early February. Very cold weather expected this week,
possibly continuing into next week, will allow for more ice
development on area rivers. As a result, a notable ice jam threat
remains. If this ice can remain into March, that threat becomes
substantial.
* Soil Moisture...
-Despite some fall moisture in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa,
soil moisture values are below normal. This is a symptom of the
ongoing drought conditions across the basin.
* Snowpack...
-This winter has been one of the least snowiest on record. A recent
winter storm brought 3 to 5 inches of snow to portions of the
area. However this snow was on the drier side and as a result
the current snowpack doesn`t have much moisture within it.
* Frost Depth...
-A generally cold winter has allowed frost depths to range from 7
to 20 inches.
* Drought Conditions...
-Ongoing below-normal precipitation has allowed drought to
continue. For the latest drought information, please visit
drought.gov.
* Weather Outlook...
-The latest outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center indicate
continued cold weather through early February and generally dry
conditions the rest of this winter.
Visit our web site weather.gov/oax for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued February 27th, 2025.
$$
Pearson