958
FXUS63 KOAX 111721
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1221 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm weather expected through the work week, with highs
  in the 60s or 70s every day but Tuesday (50s).

- An intense weather system will move through the area Friday
  and Saturday bringing strong winds along with potential for
  strong to severe thunderstorms, fire-weather concerns, and
  snowfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Today through Wednesday...

A cold front, associated with a shortwave moving across western
Kansas, drifted south of I-80 overnight, eventually stalling in
northern Missouri and Kansas. Northerly winds behind this boundary
will draw noticeably cooler air into the region. Highs this
afternoon will top out in the mid 50s and low 60s. While this is
roughly 20 degrees cooler than what we experienced yesterday,
it is still about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.


In addition to the cooler temperatures, low level moisture will also
filter into the Missouri Valley region today. Relative humidities
will rise to 40-50% for the majority of the day, with min RH only
dipping to 30-40% this afternoon. The increase moisture combined
with lighter winds will help quell Fire Weather concerns today,
keeping the majority of the area in the Moderate to High categories.

Temperatures will continue to rise through mid week, as a shortwave
trough moves through southwestern CONUS. Highs on Wednesday are
expected to reach the upper 60s and low 70s. By Thursday, we should
push into the low to mid 70s. The low pressure system soaking up the
gulf moisture to our southeast, and a deepening trough moving into
the west coast will create a void of moisture across the central
plains. Relative humidities will drop to 25% to 35% Thursday
afternoon. The combination of warmer temps, low RH, and winds
gusting to 20-30 mph will lead to another afternoon/evening of very
high to extreme Fire Danger. The greatest risk will be over
northeast Nebraska, where lowest RH and strongest winds will reside.

Friday and Beyond...

Ensembles continue to indicate an anomalously deep low pressure
system moving across Kansas, towards southeast Nebraska Friday,
before zipping northeast towards the Minnesota and the Great Lakes
on Saturday. The exact track and timing of this system will
determine which potentially impactful weather phenomena will occur
in eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

Machine learning probs continue to place the greatest threat for
severe storms just to our east, over the Mississippi River.
However, given the ample shear and meager instability, any
westward shift of the system or slight slowing of the timing
could bring a strong storm or two to the forecast area.

To the west of the potential thunderstorm initiation region,
relative humidities will dip below 35-40% in the dry slot. Winds
wrapping around the southern edge of the surface low could
reach up to 40 mph, bringing an increased Fire Danger threat to
the region.

Even stronger winds are anticipated as the system moves
east/northeast on Saturday. Northerly gusts up to 40-50 look
possible Saturday morning. Cold air and wintry precipitation will
wrap around the backside of the system. Snow looks likely over
northeast Nebraska and parts of western Iowa, potentially reaching
as far south as the KS border Saturday morning. While snowfall
amounts look fairly light at this time, the combination of
strong winds and snow could lead to reduced visibilities and
messy travel conditions. We will continue to keep a close eye
on how the track and timing of this system evolve over the next
few days.

Dry weather will return for Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures
will drop from the 70s on Friday, to the 40s and 50s on Saturday and
SUnday. By Monday, we are expected to rebound back into the 60s and
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with
mainly a few passing high clouds (FL250). Northeast winds at
10-12 kt at the start of the forecast will diminish this
afternoon before switching to southeast tonight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Mead