952
FXUS63 KOAX 030548
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1148 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog and drizzle will continue spreading into eastern
  Nebraska and far southwestern Iowa, peaking around sunrise
  Tuesday

- Dreary conditions and chances for light rain continue through
  much of the work week, including a few thunderstorms
  Thursday and Friday.

- Temperatures gradually return to the 60s and possibly 70s
  toward the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this evening continues to feature the largely
zonal mid/upper flow over much of the CONUS, a shortwave trough
pushing east from the Great Basin, and a band of ascent
extending eastward from it. Most of the airmass-differentiating
boundaries at the surface are still relegated well south and
west of the forecast area, with low-level warm air advection and
weak moisture return from the southeast helping to develop
thicker cloud cover and spread drizzle/fog chances into the area
heading into the overnight hours. Latest short-term runs are
split as to how far the fog spreads from south-central
Nebraska, with the most likely areas to see particularly low
visibility values covered by a newly-minted Dense Fog Advisory.
Given the time of year, it is worth noting that temperatures are
above freezing as of now, with that warm air advection helping
to keep temperatures from falling below that mark at their
lowest point overnight in the 33 to 36 degree range. Even
accounting for wet bulbing/evaporative cooling of surfaces,
dewpoints above freezing as well will further limit potential
for any slickness. Expect the lowest visibility values to occur
between 6-7 AM, building slowly to that point and receding
almost completely by 11 AM Tuesday morning.

During the rest of the morning and into the afternoon Tuesday, short-
term models favor an arm or two of light rain extending from central
Kansas to the east-northeast into southern Iowa, grazing southeast
Nebraska and Iowa. To the north of this regime, we`ll see the low
clouds lift slightly, but remain thick while the lowest layer
of lapse rates increasing. This increase will facilitate areas
of patchy mist/drizzle north of the light rain that lasts into
the early afternoon. Highs during the afternoon are slated to
top out near 50 degrees across the area, making a very strange
early March day that is completely cloudy while being above-
normal temperature- wise. Heading into the overnight hours,
deeper lift will be provided by the aforementioned Great Basin
shortwave, spreading light rainfall northward, but still not
amounting to a whole lot in the end.

Wednesday and Beyond:

Precipitation chances linger from the early morning hours Wednesday
as the shortwave attempts to close off over the area, transitioning
from a positive tilt to neutral as it sweeps east-northeast. Skies
will gradually clear out, and with a few peeks of sunshine during
the afternoon will help boost temperatures even further into the 50s
to nearly 60 degrees (warmest to the west where skies clear
earlier).

By Thursday, a deeper longwave trough will be moving through the
Great Basin, as another wave ascent takes shape in anticipation of
it across the Southern Plains. Locally, mostly clear skies and
southerly flow will help boost temperatures well into the 60s
and even lower 70s. Those southerly winds won`t have the speeds
that we`re looking for in terms of a dangerous fire environment,
and will also be carrying some of the better surface moisture
in terms of dewpoints with it. Late into the overnight
period/early morning Friday, a lee surface low associated with
aforementioned trough will be taking shape over east-northeast
Colorado, with a potent low- level jet providing a well-sheared
environment to join steepening mid-level lapse rates and giving
us some risk of elevated storms capable of producing small hail
in addition to healthy rainfall. As of now, the best chances
only graze far southeast Nebraska, but small fluctuations in
model output could shift this area a bit as new runs come out.
Friday afternoon, we`ll have a surface low/trough ejecting from
northern Kansas across eastern Nebraska and into Iowa, pulling
with it a cold front that will cool temperatures from another
well-above average values from the afternoon. As the system
moves through the area, gusty winds will occur (30-40 mph) while
post-frontal precipitation lingers to the north and west of its
track, affecting northeast Nebraska into South Dakota and
northwest Iowa through early Saturday.

The overall pattern quiets down for us Saturday into the early week,
with part of Friday`s system still looking to retrograde to southern
California to develop zonal split flow in the mid/upper levels.
Early indications are that this subtropical system will join with a
northerly trough and eject into the Great Plains Tuesday/Wednesday.
This could provide another chance at seeing showers and storms once
again, but we have a long ways to go before anyone needs to plan on
locally.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1110 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Ceilings are beginning to decrease across the region with fog
and drizzle developing also. MVFR ceilings become IFR ceilings
over the next hour with MVFR visibility beginning to develop
due to fog and drizzle. Further decreases are expected
overnight into Tuesday morning. LIFR ceilings are expected for
all area terminals. IFR visibility is anticipated at OFK and LNK
during this period. Dense fog of 1/2 mile or less may further
develop, but confidence on these impacts is lower. MVFR
visibility is forecast at OMA, but confidence in IFR visibility
is lower. Ceilings and visibility do not improve until the late
morning and early afternoon. Any fog or drizzle dissipates as
ceilings lift back through IFR and MVFR categories. OFK may
briefly return to VFR late in the afternoon. Ceilings are
currently forecast to fall after sunset once again Tuesday
evening at the end of this TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ030-042-050-
     065-078-088.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Chehak