631
FXUS63 KOAX 101049
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
549 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and cooler conditions expected for Friday with highs in
  the mid to upper 70s and northeasterly winds at 10 to 15 mph.

- Active pattern expected for Saturday and Sunday with a 15 to
  30% chance for showers and storms, primarily across northeast
  Nebraska. Gusty southerly winds are expected on Saturday and
  Sunday.

- Temperatures cool Monday and Tuesday to the low to mid
  60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

The H5 pattern is highlighted by a 546dam closed low off the
West Coast, and quasi-linear flow separating the Yankees and
Cunucks. A powerful shortwave north of Winnipeg has drug a cold
front through most of Nebraska, but it is just passing through
Sioux City and Columbus as of 3am. Far southwest Iowa saw some
spotty isolated showers and thunderstorms between midnight and
3am before pushing east. These were tied to some elevated
instability and the convergence along the front. The remainder
of the day will be dry.

Temperatures this morning will fall close to 60F ahead of the
front. Albion and Neligh have already fallen below 50 as will
other locations closer to SoDak. As the sfc high passes north of
the area today, subsidence will keep skies mostly sunny. Highs
will peak in the mid to upper-70s. NNW winds this morning will
become easterly by midnight and southerly by Saturday.

. SATURDAY...

The southerly winds in central Nebraska and increasing clouds
will prevent western thermometers from dipping too far, but
there`s a good set-up for radiational cooling over the eastern
half of the CWA. BUFKIT soundings show dry low levels, calm
winds, and clear skies over the Missouri River valley and
western Iowa where temps will fall into the mid-40s.

As the Pacific closed low pushes east, it will open up and
eject shortwaves through the central CONUS. Southerly winds
increase Saturday, especially west of the Missouri River. Expect
gusts as high as 30-35 mph. The mercury should reach the 70s
again. Saturday night`s precip is likely to miss this area just
to the west and north, though 10-30% PoPs are warranted north of
Hwy 20, propped up in part thanks to the LLJ.

.SUNDAY and NEXT WEEK...

Cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies produces a quickly
deepening surface low across the Williston, ND area by Sunday
morning. More breezy southerly winds (gusts to 35mph) are
forecast for Sunday, pushing temps even further above seasonal
norms (80s). A cold front slices through the area on Sunday
night and is to blame for the NBM`s smudge of 15-25% PoPs Sunday
night and Monday morning.

By Tuesday, 00Z global models suggest a cutoff low develops
over the California coast with H5 ridging north of it to various
degrees (Rex block). Regardless, this will leave southwest flow
over the Desert Southwest and moisture transported directly into
the Corn Belt. Timing of short-waves is a futile exercise this
far out, but the regular 15-20% PoPs of the NBM are reasonable
to account for their likelihood. The pattern is also conducive
to warming temps. After 60s of Monday and Tuesday, the 7-day
forecast should end with highs in the 70s for Thursday.

The CPC`s 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlook suggest odds favor
warmer than average temperatures and wetter than normal
conditions. The moisture will be welcomed as yesterday`s updated
drought monitor expanded the DO category (abnormally dry) over
much of northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A thin ribbon of stratus at FL022 is associated with the cold
front that is just pushing through KOMA and KLNK, replacing
southerly winds with northerly winds. They`ll remain generally
under 10 knots today with clear skies. VFR conditions are
expected to persist over the next 24 hours. Winds become
easterly by 06Z Saturday. By Saturday afternoon (00Z Sunday),
breezy southerly winds can be expected with gusts of 30-35 mph
possible.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen