281
FXUS63 KOAX 120506
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1206 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Knox, Cedar, Antelope,
  Pierce and Wayne counties in northern Nebraska for Tuesday
  from Noon to 9pm. This replaces the Fire Weather Watch
  previously in effect.

- Thursday will bring the potential for fire weather concerns as
  gusty winds and low RH values will be in place over portions
  of the area.

- Thursday brings a chance for a few showers and storms to
  portions of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

The forecast period begins with an amplified ridge over the PACNW
and Canada and a surface low over Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
Overnight, the low will slide southeast into portions of the Dakotas
and Minnesota. An attendant cool front over the Dakotas will begin
pushing the Panhandle and north central Nebraska. A few sprinkles or
light showers will be possible through the overnight hours. However,
with as dry as the air has been, little to no precipitation is
expected to reach the ground.

Tuesday, the cool front will push into the region. Unfortunately, it
will be bring in some gusty winds and dry air. Slightly cooler air
will move into the region behind the front, with expected highs
ranging from the mid to upper 70s in north central Nebraska to the
low to mid-80s for areas along and south of Hwy 92. There remains
considerable concern that with wind gusts of up to 35mph and minimum
RH values in the upper teens to mid-20s, dry fuels, and ample
sunshine, that near-critical to critical fire weather conditions
will be met in north central Nebraska during the late morning
through the afternoon. The previous Fire Weather Watch for Knox,
Cedar, Antelope, Pierce and Wayne counties in northern Nebraska has
been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning, which will be in effect from
Noon to 9pm Tuesday.

Wednesday, the ridge over the Rockies begins to shift east. Expect a
pretty nice day Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
across the region. Winds will be noticeably lighter with high
pressure in place.

Thursday brings the ridge across the area and off toward the
northern Great Lakes. A shortwave trough over central Montana will
slide east across the Dakotas and the Nebraska Panhandle. Expect
gusty winds through the day with a fairly tight pressure gradient
over the region. A warm front will move to the east of the forecast
area through the day with another boundary coming in from the west.
High temperatures will rebound back into the upper 70s to mid-80s
across the region. Dry conditions are also expected, which, in
combination with gusty winds and dry fuels in northeastern
Nebraska may result in high fire danger. This will be something
to monitor for as we get closer to the event.

The other question with Thursday will be whether we are able to get
any strong/severe weather. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected to kick off along the boundary Thursday, bringing a much
needed chance for some rain.

A shortwave trough lifts into the region Saturday, bringing a chance
for a few showers and storms Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Weekend
temperatures will be quite summer-like, with some models hinting at
highs reaching the 90s in some locations.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Elevated
south winds continue tonight. A low-level jet has overspread the
region and is resulting in LLWS. LLWS dissipates between 11-13Z
as the low-level jet weakens. Winds will begin to shift towards
the west during this time also. A cold front sags southeast
through the area between 13-16Z, resulting in a shift to
northwest winds. Elevated northwest winds are anticipated
through the afternoon with gusts up to 25-30 kts possible
around OFK with lower gusts elsewhere.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ011-012-016>018.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Chehak