064
FXUS63 KOAX 231053
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
553 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog across far northeast Nebraska and western Iowa
  should burn off later this morning. Otherwise, expect sunny
  skies today with highs in the 70s for most and breezy
  northwesterly winds.

- A few scattered showers and storms may develop across our far
  western areas early Sunday morning (15% chance). Otherwise,
  expect a mix of clouds and sun for Sunday with highs in the
  low to mid 70s.

- Cooler temperatures continue for Monday through Friday. Low
  end storm chances are forecast early Monday across our far
  southwest (15- 20% chance) and areawide Thursday into Friday
  (20-30% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

The sfc cold front responsible for convection yesterday evening has
now finally pushed through the OAX forecast area, with only some
lingering low to mid level clouds seen from 07z GOES-19 Nighttime
Microphysics satellite imagery. Taking a look around the region, 07z
RAP objective analysis shows a 1026 mb sfc high centered over
western Saskatchewan now approaching portions of the western Dakotas
and northwest Nebraska. Just to the southeast of this feature, KFSD
WSR-88D imagery clearly depicts a secondary cold front approaching
our northern counties. 07z radar imagery shows its location along a
line from near Yankton, South Dakota east northeast toward Sheldon,
Iowa.

Some patchy fog has developed across far northeast Nebraska into
western Iowa early this morning given the light winds and lingering
moisture. However, the approaching cold front should help scour out
the moisture and thus limit fog extent and duration. The cold front
and sfc high will advance to the southeast throughout the morning
hours today resulting in a rather pleasant day with mostly sunny
skies. Some smoke aloft may result in skies having a milky
appearance, but model guidance suggest it will not reach the
sfc. As the sfc high gradually inches southeastward throughout
the day today, subsidence coupled with mixing into 20-25 kt H8
winds may result in breezy northwesterly winds, primarily across
northeast Nebraska into western Iowa. Highs today will be in
the low to mid 70s north of Interstate 80, while areas near the
Nebraska/Kansas border reach the low 80s. Lows tonight will be
in the low to mid 50s across eastern Nebraska, while upper 40s
are expected for western Iowa.

A weak, H5 shortwave will sneak through the northwesterly flow
across Nebraska early Sunday morning. Enough forcing may exist to
generate a few scattered showers or weak thunderstorms across our
far western areas from 05z to 18z Sunday as suggested by model
guidance. BUFKIT forecast soundings do show some low level dry air
that will need to be overcome, and with the brunt of the sfc ridging
still in place across much of the forecast area, there is some
uncertainty on how far into eastern Nebraska PoPs may occur. For
now, have deviated from NBM guidance and collaborated with
neighboring WFOs to add in a few low end 15% PoPs along our shared
border areas. Otherwise, expect another cool day with most areas
seeing highs in the low to mid 70s under a mix of clouds and sun.
Lows Sunday will be cool, especially across northeast Nebraska and
western Iowa with values in the mid to upper 40s. Areas south of
Interstate 80 will see lows in the mid 50s.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

H5 longwave trough parked across the eastern CONUS results in much
of the Northern and Central Plains stuck in northwesterly flow
during the long term forecast period. Shortwaves with bits of
vorticity will ride this flow resulting in at least some low end 15
to 20% chances for showers and storms clipping our far southwestern
areas Monday morning.

Better chances for showers and storms exist Thursday and Friday (20
to 30% chance areawide) as a stronger, better defined shortwave
swings through the area. Although still quite a ways away, machine
learning guidance shows very low probabilities, if any, for strong
storms during those days.

Temperatures will remain in the 70s for much of the forecast area in
the extended, with Monday and Thursday currently shaping up to be
the coolest days. The cooler weather looks to continue beyond the
long term period with CPC outlooks indicating below normal
temperatures for the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

VFR conditions are observed across the majority of terminals
early this morning with the lone exception of KOMA where fog has
developed and overspread the terminal. Reductions to LIFR have
occurred at times early this morning. Fog should dissipate
within the next half hour to hour as a front approaches from the
north. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail for the rest
of the TAF cycle. Winds will be from the north northwest at 12
kts or less. Some gustiness may occur at KOFK this afternoon
but should subside by the evening hours.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Castillo