485
FXUS63 KOAX 052013
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
313 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off showers and isolated storms will continue into
  Saturday, with the highest chances being Saturday morning
  (50-70%). Rainfall amounts around 0.10" to 0.25".

- High temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s through early
  next week. Warming into the mid to upper 80s by the middle to
  later parts of the week.

- Higher potential for storms by the end of next week, but still
  lots of details to work out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Main story for the rest of today and heading into the weekend
will be continued on and off precip chances as several bits of
shortwave energy slide through the area. Instability will be
pretty limited, but non-zero, so could see a few rumbles of
thunder at times, but these should generally be pretty isolated.
In general, expect a 20- 30% chance for most of the time
through Saturday, with a peak around 50-70% Saturday morning as
a stronger wave moves through. While it`s pretty likely you`ll
see rain at some point between now and then, amounts will be
very limited (around 0.10" to 0.25") for most. Otherwise,
temperatures will remain on the cool side with the clouds and
precip, with highs in the 70s and then possibly a few 80s
Saturday as clouds start to exit.

By Saturday night, a larger scale trough will start to build
into the midwest with a cutoff low developing just north of the
ND/Canada border. This will swing a surface cold front through
the area and possibly some low end precip chances into northeast
NE, but moisture availability ahead of the front will be quite
low, so shouldn`t amount to much. We`ll remain under the
influence of the trough/cyclonic flow through at least Monday,
so can`t completely rule out a few spotty sprinkles/light
showers, but again, moisture will be limited. This will also
keep temperatures on the cooler side with highs remaining in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will start
building in Tuesday which will give us a break in the precip
chances and some warmer weather. Widespread 80s will return
Tuesday and then mid to upper 80s, possibly 90 on Wednesday and
Thursday. Instability should also be on the increase with signs
pointing toward another wave/front moving through sometime
Thursday or Friday. If this pans out, this could be our next
severe weather risk, but still lots of details on system timing
and strength to work out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR conditions expected through this evening with on and off
light showers. Can`t completely rule out TS this afternoon, but
think it should be pretty isolated. Otherwise, expect
southeasterly winds under 10 kts. MVFR ceilings are expected to
move into OFK and LNK overnight, with winds becoming northerly
to northeasterly at all sites. Additional showers and isolated
storms are also expected to move in and linger into the early
morning at OMA and LNK. Overall confidence in timing of showers
is on the lower side, but tried to highlight most likely times.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA