439
FXUS63 KOAX 200458
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1158 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread shower chances (40-100%) return to the region
  Sunday, with no severe weather expected.

- Our active pattern continues with another chance of showers
  and storms Monday night-Tuesday morning.

- Seasonable temperatures continue with highs in the 60s-70s
  next week.  Additional chances for rain later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

We have a few passing high clouds this afternoon, but otherwise
it`s a beautiful day outside with temperatures expected to reach
around 60 this afternoon. Clear skies will lead to temperatures
falling into the mid 30s to low 40s by Sunday morning.

The upper-level pattern shows a deep upper-level trough over
the Rockies with a strong jet streak over Kansas through the
Great Lakes region. Ahead of the trough we have strong moisture
advection from the eastern and western Gulfs. This is feeding
into a developing surface low over Texas. We`ll see this surface
low trek northward into Oklahoma overnight which will start to
wrap the moisture to the north of the surface low, bringing rain
chances up into Nebraska and Iowa. We`ll stay in the northwest
quadrant of this system as it continues northeast through
Missouri on Sunday, with showers across most of our area and a
few rumbles of thunder possible Sunday afternoon-evening in
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa under the TROWAL. Winds
will become breezy Sunday evening as the surface low gets
nearer, strengthening the pressure gradient across our area,
with winds out of the northeast. These winds will drop off
overnight as rain exits to the northeast with the low pressure
system.

Rain fall amounts up to around an inch expected across our area,
with the lowest amounts, possibly zero, closer to north-central
Nebraska, and highest amounts in far southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa.

On Monday a second shortwave trough will develop another, weaker
surface low over the northern Plains which will bring a dry warm
front through, shifting winds to southerly and bringing back in
warmer temperatures. Highs on Monday will get back into the
low-to-mid 70s. Monday night into early Tuesday we`ll want to
watch for the potential for storms developing along a dry-line
with the best chance across northeast Nebraska up into South
Dakota. Depending on it`s exact track, we could see showers and
storms as far south as I-80, but again the best chance is for
northeast Nebraska.

The cold front will move through during the day on Tuesday
shifting winds to northerly. The post-frontal cooler air mass
isn`t actually cooler as subtle ridging builds over the Rockies
and downsloping flow off the mountains leads to compressional
warming. For this reason, despite northerly winds on Tuesday,
highs will still get up into the mid 70s.

We see another trough move into the western CONUS midweek
bringing back a southwesterly flow regime, with southerly flow
near the surface advecting back in moisture from the Gulf. This
will mean additional chances for showers and storms toward the
end of the work-week. Differences in how the pattern evolves
from there lead to additional low chances for precipitation
going into next weekend, but in general, seasonable temperatures
expected to continue.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail this evening with calm
easterly to southeasterly winds. Early Sunday morning, rain
chances (50-90%) will overspread the area from south to north.
MVFR conditions are expected by Sunday morning with IFR
conditions possible at KLNK and KOMA as it progresses towards
the afternoon. A few rumbles of thunder will also be possible
Sunday afternoon, especially at KLNK and KOMA. Easterly to
northeasterly winds will increase above 12 kts at all sites by
the late morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Wood