911
FXUS63 KOAX 171742
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drying out and cooler today with highs in the mid 70s, but
  we`ll warm back into the 80s and lower 90s Friday through the
  weekend.

- Additional rounds of storms are expected from Friday afternoon
  into the weekend. Severe weather will be possible at times
  (5-10% chance), with the threat of flooding increasing with
  each successive round.

- Potentially dangerous heat will arrive next week with
  widespread heat indices of 100 to 110 Monday through
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Early morning analysis showed a surface cold front stretched
from northeast to southwest across KS with widespread showers
and storms in its vicinity and stretching north into portions of
far southeast NE and far southwest IA. The strongest storms and
heaviest rain have pushed well to the south, but could still
have a few rumbles of thunder over the next several hours. Any
lingering precip should come to an end by around 9-10 AM and we
should start to see some peeks of sunshine this afternoon as
surface high pressure builds into the area. Still, it`ll be
chilly by mid-July standards, with temperatures topping out in
the mid 70s, 10-15 degrees below average for this time of year.

Southerly flow and warmer temperatures (80s) will return Friday
as the surface high pushes off to our east and a low develops
east of the Rockies. This will usher the surface front back
north as a warm front. While forcing along the front itself will
be rather weak and we`ll remain fairly capped, there could be
at least some spotty showers and storms throughout the day.
However, higher chances will hold off until the afternoon and
evening as some shortwave energy and the surface low push
eastward into NE. Ahead of these features, guidance suggests a
very unstable airmass with HREF mean SBCAPE values in the
3000-4000 J/kg range. In addition, vertical shear profiles are
actually somewhat impressive with decent low-level hodograph
curvature and 0-6 km shear values near 40 kts. As a result,
there is potential for some supercells capable of all severe
weather hazards, but with questions on strength and timing of
the best forcing, confidence is on the lower side with SPC
continuing to indicate a level 1 of 5 (marginal) risk for severe
weather generally near and north of I-80.

The front looks to remain somewhere in the area on both
Saturday and Sunday with additional bits of shortwave energy
sliding through and bringing more shower and storm chances.
Potential for severe weather will continue to exist with
guidance showing favorable instability and vertical shear, but
still lots of smaller scale details that will need to be worked
out. That said, given the potential for multiple rounds of
storms, the flooding threat will be on the increase. Otherwise,
temperatures will continue to climb through the weekend, with
highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s both days.

As we head into early next week, upper level ridging will build
over the central CONUS and while we generally expect some drier
weather, guidance has trended toward weak shortwaves continuing
to ripple through the area at times (15-20% chances each day).
The bigger story, however, will be building heat with upper 80s
to mid 90s Monday, and widespread 90s to lower 100s Tuesday and
Wednesday. Coupled with dewpoints in the mid 60s to mid 70s,
we`ll likely see at least heat advisory criteria (heat indices
of 105 or higher) on multiple days. In other words, enjoy the
cooler weather today.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Lingering MVFR ceilings were observed at KOFK at the start of
this TAF cycle, but expecting them to lift to VFR this
afternoon. Otherwise will see lingering FEW to SCT cumulus
ceilings this afternoon remaining in VFR.

Ceilings will drop after 10z across the terminals, dropping to
MVFR for much of the morning hours. Could see a brief drop to
IFR at KLNK, so have added a TEMPO mention here. Expect further
refinements and adjustments for the timing of MVFR ceilings with
future issuances.

A low end chance (20%) for a shower or storm exists at KLNK
after 10z, but have left mentions out given low confidence on if
the terminal will see impacts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Castillo