193
FXUS63 KOAX 141807
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
107 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditional threat for severe storms this afternoon through 9
  pm. If storms can form, they`d likely be severe with damaging
  winds and a tornado or two.

- Heavy rain will accompany storms this afternoon through 9 pm.
  Rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour will result in flash
  flooding over areas that received heavy rainfall the past 3
  days.

- Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
  through Saturday morning and again after Tuesday, with a few
  storms potentially becoming strong to severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

1745z KOAX radar and GOES-19 satellite imagery show a very well
defined MCV tracking east toward the forecast area. Will need
to pay very close attention to this feature, as this will play a
large role in our severe storm chances for this afternoon and
evening. Looking at the sfc, RAP objective analysis shows a sfc
frontal feature extending across northeast Kansas toward the
Kansas City metro area.

The sfc boundary is progged to move more northward toward the area
today, and convergence from said feature combined with any forcing
for ascent tied to the MCV should lead to more scattered
thunderstorms developing ahead of the rotating feature. Forecast
BUFKIT soundings show a very saturated, moist, wet noodle type of
profile that extends well up to 150 mb, and with little to no CIN
present, should see storms become sfc based and work with around
1,000-2,000 J/kg of skinny cape. 0-6km bulk shear of 35 to 40 kts
provided by an approaching H5 speed max should be enough to result
in an organized severe threat. However, this conditional threat
will be tied to how much destabilization will actually occur as
ongoing showers/storms and remnant clouds could hinder the
threat. CAMs seem to suggest that enough destabilization will
occur along the Mid Missouri Valley into western Iowa where
strong to severe storms fire off, but some of the instability
might be overdone. Given the forecast sounding profile seen,
will likely see wet downburst potential producing damaging winds
if storms can develop, along with some tornadic threat.
Hodographs show good low level curvature with winds backing at
the sfc, in addition to the ambient vorticity provided by the
MCV. The hail risk appears fairly limited given poor H7-H5
lapse rates. At this time, the SPC has maintained the slight
risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather along and east of the
IA/NE border area.

In addition to the severe weather threat, heavy rainfall is likely.
With the aforementioned sounding characteristics, expect to see
warm cloud depths of 4,500+ meters and a broad area of 2.25 to
2.4 inch PWATs over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Given the
potential to see high rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour
over areas that have already seen a significant amount of
rainfall over the last 3 days or so, significant flash flooding
appears likely. Have issued a targeted Flood Watch for flash
flooding over far east central Nebraska into west central Iowa
through 02z tonight. PoPs of 60 to 80% are in the forecast this
afternoon for far eastern Nebraska into western Iowa through
00z, tapering off largely by 02z.

Saturday will see another shortwave disturbance pivot through the
region during the early morning hours, and with continued H8 WAA and
a LLJ pointing into the vicinity, could see some more showers and
storms develop after 12z in our far western areas and persisting
through the daytime hours. By the late afternoon, will see a sfc
cold front move through that could trigger some more storms, and
these could pose a risk for strong wind gusts. More redevelopment
will occur late Saturday night into Sunday along a boundary over the
KS/NE border area.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Cooler temperatures arrive behind the front Sunday and Monday with
highs in the 70s and 80s. High pressure moves in for those days
too which should help keep us mostly dry until late Monday when
more rain chances arrive (30-50% in northeast Nebraska) as
another H5 wave approaches the area. Continued waves
approaching from the northwest will lead to continued storm
chances through the rest of the extended period. Tuesday night
into Wednesday appears to be the best chance areawide (50-70%)
as a more powerful wave rides the northwesterly flow into the
area. These storms could be strong to severe as highlighted by
the various machine learning algorithms. Highs cool to the 70s
and 80s by Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Scattered to overcast ceilings continue to flirt with MVFR and
VFR range this afternoon as a widely scattered area of showers
and some thunderstorms moves east. Have continued mentions
through TEMPO groups of -SHRA at KOMA and KLNK through 20z.
There could be more redevelopment of scattered thunderstorms
after 19z which could be strong to severe, but these will
likely stay away from KOMA. Mist/fog will likely develop after
06z tonight and affect KOFK, bringing visibilities and ceilings
to IFR/LIFR. Uncertainty exists on how far south the fog will
make it, so have not included mentions at KOMA and KLNK with
this issuance, but should still see ceilings in the MVFR range.
Ceilings and visibilities will slowly improve by mid to late
morning. Finally, could see some redevelopment of storms after
12z at terminals but chances remain less than 50% for inclusion
at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ015-033-034-044-
     045.
IA...Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-056-069.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Castillo