884
FXUS63 KOAX 181102
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
602 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy winds this afternoon and evening behind another cold
  front. Low chance of showers possible north of I-80 with this
  system.

- Areas of frost likely in northeast Nebraska Sunday morning
  with a Frost Advisory in place from 3 AM to 9 AM.

- Winds increase again on Monday with another shot of cooler
  air arriving early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Mostly clear skies this morning with some patchy dense fog in
southwest Iowa near Clarinda and Atlantic. The front that moved
through yesterday is generating storms across north-central
Missouri this morning off to the southeast while a second,
reinforcing front is expected to move through eastern Nebraska
and western Iowa today. This front is associated with an upper-
level trough moving into the Great Lakes region, bringing in
a cooler Canadian air mass into our area behind the front as
well as stronger winds out of the northwest that will linger
through the afternoon only weakening after dark this evening.
There is a 30-50% chance of showers along this front this
afternoon north of I-80, with showers being primarily along and
lingering behind the front. Minimal instability should keep any
thunderstorms from developing.

With cooler temperatures moving in tonight, skies clearing west
to east through the evening hours, and winds relaxing, we`ll see
temperatures drop into the mid 30s to low 40s across the area
Sunday morning. Some locations in northeast Nebraska may
approach freezing, leading us to issue a Frost Advisory for
these locations in northeast and east-central Nebraska through 9
AM.

As the trough moves off to the east on Sunday, we see a second
wave moving into the PacNW amplify the ridge moving out of the
Rockies into the northern Plains. This will make for quiet
weather on Sunday with high pressure sliding across the region
and temperatures peaking in the low-to-mid 60s. We`ll see a
wind reversal to southerly by late in the day on Sunday ahead of
the next approaching trough, with a strengthening low-level jet
developing across central Kansas nosing into eastern Nebraska.

A dry but strong cold front will move across the area Monday
morning bringing back strong northwesterly winds gusting 30 to
40 mph. With lack of moisture we`ll want to monitor fire
potential closely, especially for agricultural fires which
could spread quickly Monday afternoon. Northwesterly flow
remains in place through Tuesday keeping temperatures on the
cooler side with winds becoming much more manageable through the
day on Tuesday.

Looking at the broader upper-level pattern for clues in the
forecast going into the latter half of the week, we see an
active Pacific Jet continue to lead create a amplified,
meridional flow regime going into next weekend. Another Aleutian
Low will amplify the ridge moving into the central CONUS going
into the latter half of next week leading to a warming trend.
Despite the ridge over the central CONUS we see the cut-off low
that has been sitting and spinning off the coast of southern
California finally get picked back up and pushed eastward across
the Southwest into the Central Plains Thursday. With the Low
traveling just to our south, we are clipped by some shower and
thunderstorm chances across our far southern counties Thursday
into early Friday, but details on this are still uncertain until
we see the Low actually start to move into the CONUS in a couple
of days. Warmer temperatures with highs around 70 appear likely
to linger into the weekend until the next trough arrives in the
Sunday night-Monday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

VFR conditions this morning with increasing high clouds around
FL220. Will see a cold front sweep across the area this morning
increasing winds out of the northwest to 20g30kt with a few
gusts to 35-40 kt possible. This will also bring a line of
scattered to broken showers mainly to northeast Nebraska. Rain
should be light and cigs should stay up around FL060-FL080 as
the showers move through. Clearing skies this evening with winds
relaxing through the overnight hours. VFR conditions hold into
Sunday morning with winds staying out of the northwest.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042-043-050.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy