015
FXUS63 KOAX 070431
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1131 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers will continue before gradually tapering off from
  north to south this evening. Cooler temperatures continue
  today with highs in the 50s.

- Temperatures gradually warm through the week, with highs back
  in the 80s by this weekend.

- A weak system could bring isolated showers to the area on
  Thursday (15-20% chance). A pattern shift is expected by late
  this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and additional
  precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Water vapor imagery this afternoon displays a broad, positively
tilted mid- to upper-level trough extending from central Canada into
the northern Plains. This feature has driven a slow-moving cold
front southeastward over the past 24 hours. As of 1 PM, surface
analysis places the front from northeast KS into northwest MO.
Behind the front, scattered showers continue as a shortwave
disturbance pivots across the region. The post-frontal airmass,
along with lingering cloud cover and precipitation, has kept
afternoon highs seasonably cool, generally in the mid to upper
50s. These high temperatures are nearly 30 degrees cooler than
temperatures across the area 48 hours ago. Elevated instability
will bring the chance for a few rumbles of thunder this
afternoon, particularly south of Interstate-80.

Shower activity will gradually diminish from north to south through
the evening and early overnight period. Observed rainfall totals
over the past 24 hours range from 0.50" along Interstate-80,
increasing to 2-3 inches in southeast NE and southwest IA.
Additional rainfall totals are expected to peak around 0.15".

Overnight lows will likely be the coolest of the week, dipping into
the low 40s. Patchy fog may develop early Tuesday morning, as light
winds and residual low-level moisture promote favorable conditions.
Skies will gradually clear on Tuesday as upper-level ridging begins
to build across the central and southern Plains. At the surface,
high pressure will settle into the area, bringing a warming trend
through the remainder of the week. Highs will climb into the upper
60s to low 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday, with mid to upper 70s
expected Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will generally stay in
the mid 50s.

A weak shortwave disturbance is expected to pass through the region
on Thursday. However, limited moisture will keep precipitation
chances low, with PoPs topping out near 15-20%. Temperatures may
reach the low 80s by the weekend, ahead of another upper-level
trough that is forecast to push into the region later Sunday into
next week. This system is expected to bring cooler temperatures and
renewed chances for precipitation (PoPs 15-30%).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period, with decreasing clouds overnight. There`s no model
signal for fog development, but KOFK will have to be watched
toward daybreak on Tuesday. Light north winds are expected to
become light south toward the end of the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Mead