191
FXUS63 KOAX 192104
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
404 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high fire danger expected Sunday with south-southwest
  winds gusting 20 to 30 mph in northeast Nebraska, and less
  windy but drier conditions in southeast Nebraska and Iowa.

- Higher shower and storm chances arrive Monday (40-70% chance),
  but amounts should largely remain near or below two tenths of
  an inch.

- Well above normal temperatures through much of the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a zonal jet streak
oriented along the US/Canada border, a pair of shortwaves
translating across Appalachia, and a spinning cutoff low over the
Four Corners Region. Taking a look at the surface, a front
extends northeastward from the aforementioned Four Corners
system, cutting across Nebraska towards a surface low located
in northeast Minnesota. The area is currently enjoying some of
the most widespread cloud cover (smoke not included) that it has
had in a while, which has limited the amount of mixing we`ve
been able to do. Dewpoints in the 40s to just over 50 have
arrived area-wide alongside temperatures in the 70s, resulting
in relative humidity values in the 30-40% range. Those slightly
more moist conditions along with the lighter winds have allowed
fire danger to fall below the critical and very high danger
categories that we`ve been in this week. We could see some
pockets of fog in areas of northeast Nebraska where moisture
pools up against the front, but models depict better chances to
the west towards north-central Nebraska overnight.

For Sunday, the main story once again shifts to fire danger as
surface conditions become dry with slightly breezy winds during the
afternoon hours. Relative humidity values are expected to drop into
the 20-25% range in southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa, while
southwesterly wind gusts during the afternoon reach 25-35 mph in
northeast Nebraska. With those contributing factors adding to the
overall fire danger but not overlapping, we`ll avoid extreme fire
danger and have to settle for very high fire danger area-wide.

Monday and Beyond:

By Monday, the cutoff low over the southwestern CONUS will begin
ejecting east-northeast towards the forecast area. The entire area
will see a 50-70% chance of wetting rainfall, while areas along and
south of I-80 should see 0.1" of rainfall or more. I know that`s not
a lot, but it`s more than we`ve seen in over two weeks. Expect the
rain to begin moving into the area during the afternoon hours,
lingering overnight into early Tuesday, leaving the area dry after
sunrise.

For the rest of the forecast period, we`ll start to see a pattern
shift away from widespread riding towards a zonal to northwesterly
flow with the main jet stream shifting south as well. We`ll see
highs in the 70s and 80s from the weekend and early week turn to
highs in the upper 60s, and chances for rain becoming tied to
mid/upper shortwaves Wednesday and Friday, that will still keep us
from seeing a good widespread and meaningful amount of rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Winds are expected to be largely out of the southwest at 10 kts
through the next 24 hours with some northwesterly winds at KOFK
expected to fall in line within the next hour or so. Some areas
of fog are expected to the west of KOFK but should not affect
the TAF site. Tomorrow late morning will see an increase in wind
speeds at KOFK with gusts climbing back to 25 kts through the
afternoon hours, rounding out an all-VFR TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen