419
FXUS63 KOAX 241056
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
556 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected into Friday
  morning. Patchy rainfall totals of 0.50 to 1 inch are
  expected, with some locally higher amounts possible near the
  Nebraska/Kansas border.

- Dangerous heat and humidity builds this weekend, with heat
  index values reaching near 105 on Saturday and 105 to 115
  Sunday and Monday.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area Saturday
  afternoon through Monday evening. An Extreme Heat Watch is
  also in effect for the Omaha metro into southwest Iowa Sunday
  afternoon through Monday evening.

- Expect much more dry weather than wet next week, but we`ll
  have periodic 20-30% chances for showers and storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

In collaboration with neighboring WFOs, have issued a Heat
Advisory for all of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa starting
noon Saturday through 10 pm Monday night. The Omaha metro area
and locations in southwest Iowa may see heat indices flirt with
the 115F mark Sunday afternoon and again Monday. Have issued an
Extreme Heat Watch for these areas starting Sunday afternoon
through 10 pm Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Starting to see a little more shower coverage in the area as of 10
PM, with the shortwave energy and mid-level frontogenesis in SD
finally starting to push into the area. Additional storm development
was taking place across northern KS as a low-level jet/moisture
transport ramped up. This activity should gradually spread
northeastward into the forecast area as we go through the overnight
hours and into Friday morning. With precipitable water values
approaching and exceeding 2" (1.92" on the 00Z OAX sounding) and
warm cloud depths of 4-4.5 km, the potential for efficient rain-
producing storms will be there. The big question will be how much
elevated instability will be available to get higher and more
impactful rainfall amounts. Latest guidance suggests 1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE could creep just north of the NE/KS border (a slight uptick
compared to afternoon solutions), meaning increasing potential for
some heavier rain. Various CAMs highlight localized areas of 1-2+
inches in vicinity of this elevated instability, with totals to the
north more in the range of a few hundredths to half an inch. If a
spot manages to get repeated rounds, can`t rule out some localized
flooding (10% chance at a given spot). That said, ongoing storms and
heavy rain in KS may end up keeping things a bit farther south
after all, so overall confidence in rainfall amounts is
somewhat low, though still think there`s potential for an inch
or 2 near the NE/KS border.

Precip should gradually push out of the area Friday morning with
largely dry weather favored by noon or 1 PM. Clouds will linger a
bit longer and will keep us cooler for one more day as temperatures
top out in the mid 70s to mid 80s from east to west across the area.
For the evening and overnight, guidance is in good agreement that we
see fog development in a good chunk of the area with southerly flow
helping to keep dewpoints around 70, near forecast lows overnight.

The heat and humidity are then very much on for the weekend into
early next week as upper level ridging to our west amplifies
and slides eastward. Given the persistent southerly flow and
continued cropland evapotranspiration, dewpoints should hover in
the 70s. Temperatures may be a little more questionable with
some guidance hinting at weak shortwave energy rounding the
ridge and bringing us some cloud cover, if not showers and
storms, though still lots of spread in exact timing and track of
those. However, even with some clouds, it`s still looking hot,
with ensembles giving us 850 mb temperatures in the mid to upper
20s C (90th+ percentile of climatology). As a result, model
consensus gives us widespread highs in the 90s and few 100s on
Saturday, followed by mid 90s to lower 100s Sunday and Monday.
As a side note, GFS/GEFS guidance continues to over-mix and
give us highs exceeding 110 in many locations. EPS continues to
look much more reasonable. All that said, expect widespread heat
indices nearing 105 on Saturday, followed by 105-115 across
much of the area on Sunday and possibly Monday. Heat Advisories
are looking likely (60-90% chance) those three days and if
confidence increases that we`ll see 110+ heat indices multiple
days, an Extreme Heat Warning may become necessary (50% chance
for portions of southwest IA).

Beyond Monday, we`ll start to see more shortwave troughs round
the ridge and bring us on and off shower and storm chances. This
will also lead to slightly cooler temperatures, but still
seasonably warm with lower to mid 90s for most well into the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 556 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

A band of low level stratus is observed over terminals early
this morning along with widely scattered showers. Showers should
gradually decrease in coverage within the next few hours. Expect
ceilings to drop to IFR at the majority of terminals through
mid morning before slowly lifting up to MVFR. Guidance is pretty
persistent in keeping MVFR for much of the daytime into this
evening, but have opted for the more optimistic solution with
this issuance to raise ceilings to VFR by the late afternoon
hours. After 06z, most guidance is in good agreement that fog
will overspread KOMA and KLNK, so have begun trending toward
lower ceilings and visbys thereafter. Winds will remain light
under 10 kts and from the south southeast.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065>068-078-
     088>093.
     Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to noon CDT Sunday for NEZ052-
     053.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for NEZ052-053.
IA...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     IAZ043.
     Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to noon CDT Sunday for IAZ055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Castillo
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Castillo