


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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981 FXUS63 KOAX 041722 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A chance (20%) of spotty storm exists this afternoon before more widespread thunderstorms move in from west to east this evening (6 PM-12 AM). A few may become strong to severe, with damaging winds (60-70 mph) and locally heavy rainfall. - Storm chances return to southeast NE and southwest IA Saturday afternoon, with a 5-10% chance of strong to severe storms. - Daily storm chances persist Sunday evening through the work week. Severe weather potential remains on the lower end, though repeated rounds of rainfall could be flooding concerns. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Short Term (Today and Tomorrow) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a mid- to upper-level ridge centered over the south-central CONUS, with its axis just east of the area. Meanwhile, an incoming shortwave disturbance is deamplifying and lifting northeast from the Four Corners region. At the surface, and associated trough positioned over far western NE/KS will strengthen the pressure gradient across the region, resulting in gusty southerly winds reaching 25-30+ mph this afternoon. These gusty southerly winds will help transport warm, moist air northward, supporting seasonably warm highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Increasing cloud cover will accompany this moist advection, while dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to another humid day. Although heat index values may rise into the mid 90s, breezy conditions should offer some relief. The main concern today centers around thunderstorm potential, which could impact outdoor holiday plans. A few isolated, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms may develop between 1-5 PM, though widespread activity is unlikely due to limited destabilization from increasing cloud cover (PoPs ~20%). A better chance for thunderstorms arrives later this evening into the overnight period as the surface trough advances eastward. A line of scattered to broken convection is expected to initiate across west-central NE in the 2-5 PM timeframe, progressing eastward into the western portion of the forecast area between 5-9 PM. These storms will likely weaken as they approach the NE/IA border in the 8 PM-12 AM timeframe. A few strong to severe storms will be possible, though the overall severe threat remains limited given modest instability (MUCAPE up to 1500 J/kg) and weak shear (15-25 kts of bulk shear). Damaging wind gusts (up to 60-70 mph) will be the primary hazard with any stronger storms. SPC continues to highlight eastern NE in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. While storms will diminish in intensity overnight, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to persist through much of the overnight period before clearing from west to east during the morning hours. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a concern, as the environment features PWAT values between 1.75 and 2.00", above the 90th percentile of KOAX sounding climatology for early July. Long, skinny CAPE profiles and warm cloud depths of 3-4 km will support efficient rainfall processes. WPC has placed the area in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall. Storm activity will gradually taper off Saturday morning, with cloud cover beginning to break up from west to east during the early afternoon. High temperatures are expected to rebound into the upper 80s. A cold front associated with the departing disturbance will drop southward through the area by Saturday afternoon, extending from eastern NE northeast into IA and WI. Additional thunderstorm chances return Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly across southeast NE and southwest IA along the advancing front. A few strong to severe storms will again be possible, supported by MLCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/kg. However, weak shear (~20 kts of bulk shear) will limit storm organization. Damaging wind gusts (up to 60- 70 mph) and hail (up to 1") will be the primary threats as storms track southward into the evening. Long Term (Sunday and Beyond) Heading into the latter half of the weekend and beyond, the overall pattern remains largely unchanged. A mid-level ridge will persist over the south-central CONUS, while generally zonal to northwesterly mid- to upper-level flow dominates across the region, allowing for a series of embedded shortwave disturbances to move through during the upcoming week. Sunday is expected to remain mostly dry, with seasonable highs in the 80s before showers being to approach from the west during the evening hours. Temperatures through the remainder of the forecast period should remain near climatological normals, with daytime highs generally in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. On-and-off storm chances return Monday and continue through the work week as the aforementioned cold front stall and transitions into a stationary front. This front is expected to oscillate north and south across the forecast area, acting as a focus for periodic convection. While confidence remains low in the timing and specific details of any hazardous weather during this extended time frame, a few strong to severe storms can`t be ruled out on any given day. No single day looks like a slam dunk for severe weather, though GEFS and ECMWF ensemble-based machine learning guidance highlights a 5-10% probability for severe weather for the area throughout much of the week. In addition, multiple round of heavy rainfall cloud lead to localized flooding concerns. PoPs generally remain in the 20- 40% range each day through the work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 A field of low clouds are increasing in coverage early this afternoon and generally range from FL025-Fl040 and should last through 02z. Main adjustments to the forecast have been slightly lower wind gusts out of the south this afternoon, tightening the windows for shower/storm chances this evening, and the inclusion of lingering low clouds tomorrow morning. Showers and storms will likely not be patchy at times rather than being non- stop, so further cuts to the start/end time may be warranted as we approach them. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Petersen