055
FXUS63 KOAX 212255
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
455 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will slowly warm heading into the weekend, with
  highs Saturday expected to be in the upper 40s/low 50s.

- A cold front Sunday afternoon will usher in another polar
  airmass to the region, dropping high temps for next week into
  the 30s and lows into the 10s/low 20s.

- Rain and snow may wet highways for holiday travel mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

A cool day across the area today with cold air advection ongoing
under the influence of northwesterly winds running 10-20 mph
and gusts up to 30mph. Omaha`s peak of 41F so far today would
represent the coolest max temp since 3/27/24 (42F).

Winds are slowing over the course of the day and are forecast to
become calm under clear skies overnight allowing temps to
plummet into the teens in parts of western Iowa and far
northeast Nebraska. Most numbers should hit bottom a couple of
degrees lower than they did this morning.

Our wet and windy start to the week was tied to a cutoff low at
H5. That low continues east and is replaced by an upper-level
ridge building over the central CONUS. Return surface flow
developing over the course of the day on Friday will help
western parts of the CWA manage low 50s and even warmer
temperatures by Saturday.

.SUNDAY and NEXT WEEK...

As a shortwave slides east along the Canadian border, it`ll drag
a cold front across the Dakotas and eventually the Corn Belt.
This will open the door for a reinforcing shot of cool autumnal
air. The front will pass through dry leaving high temperatures
mostly between 30 and 40F on Monday. Deterministic and ensemble
guidance (GEFS and EC) continue to produce chances of rain and
snow mid-week. The deterministic run of the GFS notably keeps
all precip falling as rain for Omaha. Currently have PoPs
running at 30-40% for most of the forecast area with snow most
likely for areas north of I-80. These PoPs may be too low.

Lots of question marks in timing / location / and impacts remain
for one of the busiest travel day of the year. For what it`s
worth from this far out, about 30% of ensemble members produce
one inch of snow or more across the area by Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 453 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Northwesterly winds will
calm under 12 kts by 00-01Z at all terminals. Calm and variable
winds are expected overnight. Calm winds will shift
counterclockwise to southeasterly late Friday morning into the
afternoon (16-22Z).

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Wood