321
FXUS63 KOAX 031751
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1251 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant conditions are expected today with highs in the 50s.

- Intermittent rain is expected from tonight through Saturday,
  with chances peaking at 40-70%. However, rainfall amounts will
  likely remain light, with most areas receiving less than
  0.25".

- Dry and seasonable conditions are expected from Sunday through
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Short Term (Today through Saturday)

Water vapor analysis this morning shows a broad mid-to-upper-level
trough over the western and central CONUS. Surface high pressure
moving across the area this morning will bring mostly clear skies
and calm winds. Highs will be near average, ranging across the 50s.
Cloud cover will increase this afternoon as a shortwave disturbance
embedded in the trough approaches. Light precipitation is expected
to move in this evening and continue through Friday, with PoPs
between 40-70%. PoPs have been adjusted slightly down from NBM
values as guidance suggests two areas of forcing for ascent- one to
the north and another to the south- leaving our CWA between the two.

The best chance for measurable rainfall will be in northeast
Nebraska, where stronger forcing for ascent moves through Friday
morning. Elsewhere, precipitation will likely be light and
intermittent. Precipitation chances will continue through Friday,
with the disturbance bringing cooler air and highs in the upper 40s
to mid-50s. A brief round of flurries or a light rain/snow mix is
possible early Saturday morning in northeast Nebraska as low
temperatures dip into the 20s. Little to no accumulation is
expected. Precipitation should taper off by Saturday afternoon,
though highs will remain in the upper 40s with breezy conditions.
Rainfall totals across most of the area will range from 0.05-0.25",
with the highest totals expected in northeast Nebraska.


Long Term (Sunday and Beyond)

Sunday will bring more sunshine, but northwesterly flow will keep
highs in the 50s. A cold front, driven by an upper-level disturbance
over the northern Plains, will move through Sunday evening, dropping
Monday`s highs into the 40s and low 50s. No precipitation is
expected with the frontal passage. A pattern shift begins Tuesday as
a broad upper-level ridge builds into the central Plains, bringing
highs into the 60s. By Wednesday and Thursday, high temperatures
could reach the 70s. The next precipitation chance arrives Wednesday
night into Thursday as a shortwave disturbance ejects southeast from
the Canadian Rockies towards the region. Model guidance remains
uncertain on its track and intensity, leaving potential hazards to
be assessed as it nears.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Generally expecting VFR conditions with light winds anticipated.
A deck of MVFR cigs at FL025 have been slow to push northeast of
the area this morning and may impact KOMA and KOFK through 19Z
or so, but believe odds of this is below 40%. Friday morning
brings another round of lowered cigs and a chance of light
showers, especially at KOFK and northeastern Nebraska.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Nicolaisen