391
FXUS63 KOAX 310825
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
325 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic rain showers and embedded thunderstorms could lead to
  localized flooding through Monday.

- Seasonably cool conditions will continue through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Today and Monday:

Early morning water vapor imagery and objective analysis indicate
a midlevel low consolidating over north-central NE, which is
supporting a more continuous area of showers in that general
vicinity. Elsewhere, light to moderate showers are scattered
across the area as of 3 AM, with a gradually increase in areal
coverage recently noted across parts of southeast NE. The
heaviest rainfall on Saturday to present has occurred across
central NE into portions of our area; namely western Knox
County, from west of Albion to Columbus and David City, and
between Beatrice and Falls City, with radar estimates of
1.5-2.5".

Latest CAM data suggest that scattered to occasionally numerous
shower activity will continue into Monday, along and ahead of
the the midlevel low tracking slowly southeast. Instability
will remain muted due to the ongoing precipitation and
widespread clouds, with any embedded thunderstorms likely
remaining isolated in nature. While rain rates will largely be
tempered by the weaker updrafts, the presence of a seasonably
moist air mass (PWATs of 1.4- 1.5") and relatively deep, warm-
cloud depths will support bursts of 1-2"/hr rates with any
stronger showers and storms.

Based on what`s been observed so far, and the general consensus
of CAM and parameterized model QPF through Monday, event-total
rainfall amounts are likely to end up highly variable across our
area. Some locations may end of seeing less than a half inch,
with other areas receiving several inches. Given that expected
variability, and the absence of a strong model signal for a
focused area of heavy rain, we will continue to hold off on a
Flood Watch issuance.

Daytime temperatures will remain cool, with highs in the 60s.


Tuesday and Wednesday:

Surface high pressure is forecast to quickly build through the
mid MO Valley on Tuesday, ahead of a cold front and associated
shortwave trough, which are expected to move through the area on
Wednesday morning. This forecast update will maintain 15-25%
PoPs on Tuesday, which increase to 30-45% Tuesday night into
Wednesday with the arrival of the front and upper-air system.
Increasing warm advection ahead of the front will support
temperatures rebounding into the 70s on Tuesday. Cooler air will
begin to filter into the region behind the front on Wednesday,
with highs in the 60s north and 70s south.


Thursday through Saturday:

The 00z global models are in good agreement in the evolution of
a broad and deep trough east of the Rockies, with some signal
for an embedded shortwave trough to move through the area
Thursday night into Friday. This forecast update will indicate
sub-15% PoPs, with highs in the 60s on Thursday warming into
the 70s by Friday into Saturday. However, that warm-up could be
delayed with some measurable precipitation chances if that
shortwave trough ends up moving through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

On and off showers will continue through the period, with
perhaps some rumbles of thunder at times, but those should be
few and far between. VFR conditions early in the period are
expected to gradually deteriorate with MVFR to IFR ceilings
pushing in. Still some questions on how far east the IFR
ceilings reach, with guidance suggesting both OFK and LNK have
about a 60% chance, while OMA only has a 20% chance through the
period. Could also see some reductions to MVFR or IFR visibility
with any heavier showers, but confidence is low in timing and
location of those. Otherwise, winds should remain easterly with
speeds generally in the 6-10 kt range on Sunday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...CA