600
FXUS63 KOAX 131841
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
141 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing showers and weak thunderstorms will taper off later
  this afternoon.

- The next chance for severe weather will be Monday
  afternoon/evening. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated
  tornado will be possible with storms that are able to develop
  and become severe.

- Cooler weather with a few chances for showers/storms are
  expected Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

A weak shortwave continues to move across the region today. Showers
and thunderstorms are ongoing across eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa this afternoon. Added some low end PoPs a few hours further
into the afternoon as models and observations are hinting at a
slower exit of ongoing precipitation. Areas along and particularly
west of the Missouri River can expect a few isolated thunderstorms
over the next couple of hours. Elsewhere, showers and an isolated
storm or two should taper off later this afternoon from west to
east.

A ridge will move across the Great Plains and the Dakotas tonight
into Monday morning with warm air advecting into the region. There
is another chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight into
Monday morning. Monday morning, the ridge will be sliding east over
Iowa and Minnesota while low pressure over Montana and Canada slides
east with an attendant cold front. The cold front is expected to
arrive during the afternoon and evening, kicking off additional
showers and thunderstorms. MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg, decent shear
and lapse rates will all be in place during the afternoon. Strong to
severe thunderstorms with a wind and hail threat will be possible in
the afternoon and evening. Can`t rule out a couple of tornadoes as
well. Severe storm chances will decreasing heading into the
overnight hours; however, rain chances will continue.

Fall-like temperatures settle into the region Tuesday through the
extended forecast. Southwest flow sets up over the region with a few
shortwave troughs moving through the region. High temperatures will
be primarily in the 60s and 70s and lows will be in the 50s and 60s.
A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through
the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

KOFK: A few lingering showers continue to move through the
region this afternoon, potentially causing some minor impacts to
the terminal for another hour or so. Heading into the overnight
hours, LLWS is expected to develop across the region.
Showers/storms are expected to fire up overnight, potentially
causing some impacts at the terminal. Could see a few isolated
after midnight and after 13Z, but the best chance should be
after 08Z.

KOMA/KLNK: A few lingering showers will remain possible for the
first couple of hours of the TAF period with lower confidence as
we move toward 19Z and beyond. We should a break in
precipitation chances later this afternoon into the evening.
Another chance for showers and storms is expected overnight. Had
slightly better confidence in storm occurrence at KLNK, so a
mention was put into prevailing conditions. Can`t rule out
storms at KOMA after 09Z but didn`t have quite as much
confidence, so held off on a mention for now. LLWS is expected
to develop after midnight with better chances of impacts after
08Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW