086
FXUS63 KOAX 181956
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
256 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures continue into Tuesday, though
  temperatures gradually lower through the week.

- Additional thunderstorms are possible (30% chance) early
  Tuesday for far southeast Nebraska, with a few strong to
  severe storms possible. Primary hazard will be damaging winds
  50-60 mph.

- Below normal temperatures forecast going into the weekend
  with rain chances returning starting Thursday night-Friday.
  Periods of showers and storms possible through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area this afternoon,
with greater cloud coverage along a stationary frontal boundary
draped along the Platte River. Temperatures this afternoon will
peak in the upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon, with heat
indices south of the stationary front reaching 100-104. To the
north, heat indices are a bit cooler, only in the upper 90s.

The ridge that has been sitting over our area over the weekend
is shifting off to the east as another ridge is starting to
build up to our west over the Four-Corners region. With this,
we`ll see a pattern shift this week, bringing in cooler
temperatures going into this weekend.

This afternoon, we`re seeing a shortwave trigger storms out over
the western Plains of Nebraska and eastern Colorado. These will
coalesce into a complex of storms that will progress eastward
along the Kansas-Nebraska state line this evening into the
overnight hours. Models have trended this complex farther south
as the stationary boundary currently bisecting our area gets
pushed southward this evening due to outflow from ongoing
convection over eastern Iowa. This reduces chances for storms
for areas around Lincoln northward, with the best chances for
overnight storms now being mainly in far southeast Nebraska.
Ample elevated instability and marginal shear will likely lead
to this complex weakening again as it moves into eastern
Nebraska, but wind gusts of 40-60 mph will still remain possible
as the system arrives.

We`ll continue to see lingering showers across far southeast
Nebraska through the morning hours on Tuesday, wrapping up
around noon. With our area now north of the frontal boundary,
expect the cooling trend to begin with highs still in the mid-
to-upper 80s on Tuesday, but heat indices only in the 90s.

As the ridge builds up to our west over the western Rockies, we
see a transition to a northwesterly flow regime. This will bring
in cooler, drier air through the end of the week, keeping us dry
through Thursday with highs dropping into the mid-80s on
Wednesday and Thursday.

A shortwave trough will drop south across our area Thursday
night into Friday bringing our next chance for showers and
storms. Ensemble guidance suggests storm chances will remain
confined to northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa. What we do
start to see going into the weekend, though, is stronger
northerly flow over the Central Plains, increasing cool-air
advection and bringing shortwaves through. These shortwaves will
bring periods of showers and storms with high temperatures
Saturday around 80, and in the 70s Sunday and Monday.

The Climate Prediction Center is predicting cooler than normal
temperatures through the 6-10-day and 8-14-day forecasts with
above normal precipitation. This suggests this cooler, active
pattern may hang around for several days into next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period, with
a patch of MVFR ceilings keeping to the northwest of KOMA and to
the east of KOFK that are gradually lifting early this
afternoon. A wind shift boundary is in close proximity to KOMA
and KOFK this afternoon, and will keep winds light and less than
10 kts, while turning in direction throughout the afternoon and
overnight hours. Cloud cover will will remain steady state
through the first half of the overnight hours, before a cluster
of showers and storms begins to move in from the west. This
cluster should weaken and dive south as it approaches and
should miss the TAF sites with precipitation, with KLNK being
the most likely site to be affected (25% chance) around 12z
tomorrow morning with light rain and lightning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Petersen