278
FXUS63 KOAX 121115
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
615 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm weather is expected through Friday with highs in
  the 60s and 70s.

- Very high to Extreme fire danger is forecast for Thursday
  afternoon over northeast Nebraska.

- An intense weather system will move through the area Friday
  and Saturday. Potential hazards are isolated strong to severe
  storms, widespread strong winds up to 45-55 mph, wildfires,
  and blowing snow, leading to travel impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Today through Thursday...

A trough will pass to our south, along the KS/OK border Wednesday,
with fairly zonal flow remaining over Nebraska and Iowa.
Temperatures will rise 10-15 degrees above Tuesday`s highs, reaching
the upper 60s and low 70s this afternoon. Although drier air is
expected to creep east into the forecast area, dropping min RH to 25-
30% this afternoon, winds will remain light at 5-10 mph, keeping the
region in the Moderate to High Fire Danger categories.

Southwesterly flow aloft will draw even warmer and drier air into
the region for Thursday, ahead of strengthening low pressure system.
Deep mixing will allow afternoon highs to stair-step up another 5-10
degrees, reaching the mid to upper 70s, with a few locations
possibly hitting 80. RH around 20-30 percent will spread into
northeast NE Thursday afternoon, with winds gusting as high as 20-35
mph. Thus a Fire Weather Watch has been hoisted for parts of
northeast Nebraska from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening.

Friday through Saturday...

Another round of impactful spring weather will arrive Friday through
Saturday, as the previously mentioned low pressure system
strengthens through the Central Plains. Severe storms, extreme fire
danger, strong winds, and wintry precipitation will all be possible
somewhere across the central CONUS. Which of these will actually
impact our forecast area remains to be seen.

Destabilization ahead of the low will bring increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon. Currently, there
appears to be a chance for a strong thunderstorm or two, primarily
east of the Missouri river, where instability and shear are
strongest Friday afternoon. However, the better chance for organized
severe development remains well to our east, over Iowa and Missouri.
It is worth noting that over the last several runs, this potential
has gradually shifted west, as Machine Learning Severe probs
continue to indicate. So while confidence remains relatively low
that we will experience any severe storms later this week, the
threat continues to warrant monitoring in the coming days.

Strong southerly winds feeding into this system will be another
aspect worth keeping an eye on. Sustained speeds of 15-25 mph, with
gusts reaching 35 mph can be expected across the forecast area
Friday. A region of dry air, with RH of 20-30%, can be expected to
the south of the surface low, southwest of any developing
precipitation area. The combination of dry conditions and gusty
winds could lead to increased Fire Danger Friday. Thankfully, the
latest runs continue to keep the area of greatest concern just to
our south, over Kansas.

Rain chances will continue through Friday evening and overnight, as
winds switch to the north, behind the passage of the surface low.
Winds will increase Friday night through Saturday morning, reaching
speeds of 45-55 mph at times. As the winds ramp up, cold air
wrapping into the backside of the low will cause rain to mix with
snow over northeast Nebraska, and gradually spread south and east
through the forecast area. Warm surface temperatures, from highs
reaching into the 70s on Friday, and air temperatures generally in
the low 30s over northeast Nebraska early Saturday morning will
likely keep much of the wet snow from sticking to the pavement and
accumulating as it falls. However, the falling snow combined with
the strong winds could lead to significant visibility reductions and
travel impacts for parts of the area through Saturday morning. The
greatest threat being over northeast Nebraska.

Northwest winds will remain strong on Saturday with decreasing
precipitation chances during the afternoon and evening. It will be
cooler with highs ranging from around 40 degrees near the SD border
to lower 50s along the KS border.

Sunday and Beyond..

Temperatures will gradually warm through early next week, with dry
conditions expected to prevail Sunday through Monday. There are
hints at a similar spring storm impacting the region by the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period with passing mid to
high clouds. Winds should generally remain at or below 5 kts,
somewhat variable to northeasterly early in the period, then
southeasterly to easterly by mid to late morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NEZ011-012-016>018-030>033-042-043.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CA