769
FXUS63 KOAX 132245
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
545 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this
  afternoon/evening. Better chances for storms are expected
  overnight into Friday with damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and
  localized flooding possible.

- Periodic daily chances for showers and storms are expected
  across at least a portion of the forecast area through Sunday.

- Temperatures will be highly dependent on location the next few
  days with highs in the 70s to mid-80s for the northern half of
  the CWA and the mid-80s to low/mid-90s for the southern half.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

The forecast period begins with ridging over the Great Plains and an
area of high pressure over the Gulf Coast. Cloud cover continues to
linger across northeastern Nebraska early and northwestern Iowa this
afternoon, keeping temperatures in the 70s to low 80s. Expected high
temperatures today will be in the 70s to mid-80s for areas along and
north of a line from David City, NE to Harlan, IA. Areas south of
this line can expect highs ranging from the mid-80s to mid-90s.
Return flow is bringing some moisture into the region which will
play a factor in our next chance for storms.

Our next chance of storms (20-30%) will be late this afternoon into
early evening ahead of our next storm system. Surface low pressure
over western Kansas will lift to the northeast through the afternoon
and evening along with a warm front currently situated near the
KS/NE border. SBCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg, MLCAPE of 3000+ J/kg, and
DCAPE of 1000+ J/kg are expected. Pwat values of 1/7+ are also
expected. Should any storms be able to develop this
afternoon/evening, some hail and wind would be expected. As the low
moves into the region overnight, we will have better chances for
shower/thunderstorm activity across the region, with the best
chances after midnight. Damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and
localized flooding will again be a concern with overnight/Friday
morning convection.

Thunderstorm chances will continue through the morning and into the
early afternoon on Friday across portions of the area, tapering off
west to east. High temperatures will once again be variable based on
location, with cooler temperatures in the northern CWA where cloud
cover and potential storm chances could impact our ability to warm
up.

Slightly warmer temperatures are expected Saturday (low to mid-80s
north; mid-80s to low 90s south). Southwest flow sets up with high
pressure over the Gulf Coast states. Return flow brings moisture
into the region and once again, there will be chances for showers
and storms through the day as a cold front drops in in from the
Dakotas.

We`ll enjoy a short-lived cool down Sunday with highs ranging from
the mid-70s in the north to the mid-80s along the KS/MO/NE/IA
border. Sunday will once again bring a chance for some showers and
storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR conditions are favored this evening, with patchy MVFR
conditions as a scattered to broken cloud deck moves in at
FL025-035. An east- west oriented line of thunderstorms is
expected to develop across east- central into northeast Nebraska
around 14/04-07Z. The highest confidence in impacts is at KOFK
and KOMA, with lower chances for thunderstorms at KLNK. Isolated
pockets of gusty winds (up to 40 kts) and small hail will be
possible under initial thunderstorms.

As showers increase in coverage, expect decreasing ceilings at
all terminals with MVFR and patchy IFR/LIFR conditions through
much of the overnight period. Showers will taper off from west
to east Friday morning, with ceilings then gradually breaking up
and improving back to VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Wood