986
FXUS63 KOAX 022302
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
602 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions are expected Saturday afternoon. Although Red
  Flag criteria may not be met for many areas, with strong winds
  and dry fuels (fields) there is a concern for fire potential.

- Chances for showers and storms return to the area Saturday
  night, with off and on chances through Tuesday.

- Cooler weather settles in Monday through the middle of next
  week. Lows Wednesday morning may dip into the mid to upper 30s
  for portions of northeastern Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

An upper ridge is in place over the Great Plains today and tomorrow,
allowing warmer air to move into the region. The ridge is being
amplified by a trough over the West Coast. For the rest of today,
temperatures will be primarily in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will
bottom out in the upper 50s to mid-60s. Friday will be slightly
warmer with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the mid-
60s to low 70s.

Saturday will be the best chance for some fire weather concerns.
Expected high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s for areas
along and south of a line from David City to Fort Calhoun.
Areas north can expect high temperatures in the upper 80s to low
90s. A trough to the west will move over the Rockies during the day
on Saturday. There will be a fairly tight pressure gradient over the
area, resulting in gusty winds in the afternoon and evening.

Windy conditions are expected with south winds gusting to around 40
mph in northeastern Nebraska. This will be in combination with
minimum RH values in the low to mid-30s. Right now, the counties
that are closest to potentially meeting Red Flag criteria are Knox
and Cedar Counties. However, available cured fuels add an extra
layer of complexity to the situation. Grasses and brush are still
fairly green and not as readily available. Fields are in varying
stages of drying and curing. With the potential for 40 mph wind
gusts, despite RH values being too low, if something sparks, it will
cause some fire related issues. Another thing to add to the
complexity is amount of cloud cover across the area. We are
currently looking at the possibility of some cirrus overhead
Saturday afternoon, which could potentially result in a few changes
to other factors already mentioned in the discussion.

Saturday night/Sunday morning, a cold front will begin to move into
the region from the northwest, bringing in some cooler temperatures
and a chance (20%) for some showers and storms. There will be better
chances (30-50%) along the front heading into Sunday night.
Additional rain chances will be possible on Monday.

Some models are showing precipitable water values of 1.00-1.25
inches as being possible Sunday into Monday. There is a Marginal
Risk for excessive rainfall in effect for Monday.

Monday through Wednesday, expect a fall-like forecast with cooler
weather settling into the region. Highs will be primarily in the 60s
and 70s. Tuesday night/Wednesday morning will be a bit cooler than
the rest of the week and could pose some concerns for those with
agricultural related interests in the northern part of Nebraska.
Lows for areas from Norfolk to West Point can expect lows to be in
the low to mid-40s. Areas north of that line are currently expected
to dip into the mid to upper 30s. This will be in conjunction
with an area forecasted to have less cloud cover and light
northeast winds. Freezing temperatures are not currently
expected. However, should forecasted temps inch a degree or two
cooler, there may be a concern for some patchy frost on some
areas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

VFR conditions prevail for this TAF cycle. Lingering band of
cumulus clouds at KOMA and KLNK will erode after sunset this
evening, leaving mostly clear skies for the remainder of the
period. Winds will generally remain from the south under 12 kts
through at least 17z. Wind speeds will increase after 17z, with
gusts around 20 to 25 kts from the south southeast at all three
terminals through at least the early evening hours

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Castillo