801
FXUS63 KOAX 212007
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
207 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warm significantly into the weekend with highs in
  the 30s and 40s on Saturday, 40s and 50s on Sunday, and 50s
  to low 60s possible on Monday and Tuesday.

- The next best chance for precipitation is Tuesday night into
  Wednesday (15 to 30% chance), with rain the predominant
  precipitation type.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...This Weekend...

A largely meridional, midlevel flow regime in place over the
north-central U.S. this afternoon will transition to more zonal
on Saturday ahead of a weak disturbance, which is forecast to
move through the mid MO Valley Saturday night into Sunday
morning. In the low levels, south-southwest winds of 10-20 mph
have developed across the region today, contributing to "balmy"
temperatures in the teens and 20s as of 2 PM.

Surface winds will become more westerly on Saturday, especially
across our NE counties, with associated downslope warming
supporting high temperatures in the 30s where the deepest snow
cover exists, and low 40s in parts of northeast and southeast
NE. We may see some increase in high clouds with the passing
disturbance Saturday night and Sunday with continued westerly
winds allowing temperatures to warm into the 40s at most
locations on Sunday afternoon. Highs could reach the mid 50s
along the SD border where snow should largely be melted by
then.

...Next Week...

West to northwest midlevel flow is forecast to persist into the
middle of next week with embedded shortwave troughs moving
through the mid MO Valley on Monday and Wednesday. The 12z
global models indicate the best precipitation chances with both
systems remaining to our north and east with this forecast
update continuing to advertise 15-30% PoPs on Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The predominant precipitation type would be light
rain, though a rain-snow mix is certainly possible Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning across the northern part of our area.

The models indicate that existing snow cover will have a notable
impact on temperatures at least through Monday with highs in
the 40s to low 50s in those areas, and 50s to around 60
elsewhere. The snow-cover influence is projected to be greatly
reduced by Tuesday with highs largely in the 50s to low 60s.
Wednesday`s midlevel system will be accompanied by a front that
will bring gusty northwest winds to the region and slightly
cooler temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Similar high temperatures
are expected on Thursday.

The snow melt will increase the odds of patchy nighttime/early
morning fog, mainly in areas where winds are light. And as
mentioned in the previous discussion, the incoming period of
warm weather will bring an increased threat for ice jams in both
the Platte and Elkhorn river basins as ice movement occurs. The
Ice Jam Risk Indicator remains in the elevated category.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. A possible exception is patchy fog formation in the KOFK
vicinity between 12-15z Saturday. Confidence in visibility
restrictions due fog occurrence is currently too low to include
in the forecast. South-southwest winds of 12-14 kt are forecast
this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt possible at KOFK. The
winds will be slower to diminish below 12 kt tonight at KOFK
compared to KOMA and KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead