069
FXUS63 KOAX 140349
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1049 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A complex of thunderstorms will move into portions of
  northeast Nebraska late tonight and may be capable of strong
  to locally damaging wind gusts (5-15% chance).

- Temperatures in the 90s, along with humid conditions return
  Friday into Saturday. Maximum heat indices of 100 to 105
  forecast Friday, with heat indices of 100 to 110 on Saturday.

- Nightly shower and thunderstorm chances(20-40%) return to the
  area Saturday night through at least Wednesday night next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Skies are mostly clear this afternoon with a few areas of
scattered clouds around 3000 ft. WPC has analyzed a stationary
front northwest to southeast just west of our area. A shortwave
currently over north-central Wyoming will move into western
South Dakota this afternoon triggering storms along this
stationary boundary. CAMs show these storms congealing into a
cold-pool driven MCS this evening as it passes across central
South Dakota towards northeast Nebraska. As the MCS moves into
northeast Nebraska around 05Z (midnight) it should be falling
apart as shear over South Dakota should not be sufficient to
sustain a shear to CAPE balance allowing the outflow to outrun
the MCS. This should mean the MCS enters our area sub-severe,
but we could still see gusts around 35-45 mph initially before
it continues to weaken and fall apart before it reaches Omaha.
We could see a few remnant showers along and north of I-80
Thursday morning before the shortwave exits to the east bringing
an end to rain chances by the afternoon.

Going into the end of the week, we see the ridge over the
Rockies shift eastward increasing heights and shutting down
rain chances going into the weekend. This will cause a warming
trend with the hottest days being Friday and Saturday with heat
indices around 100-105 on Friday and 100-110 on Saturday.

The good news is this ridge doesn`t hang around for long with a
trough pushing into the western CONUS shifting it off to the
east early next week. This will transition us back into a
southwesterly flow pattern bringing back storm chances north
starting Saturday night into Sunday, and nightly chances
continuing into next week. This will also lead to a cooling
trend through the first half of next week.

While there isn`t a strong signal for temperature trends going
beyond the 7-day forecast, the CPC is predicting drier
conditions developing in the 8-14-day time range.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

A thunderstorm complex ongoing over south-central SD and north-
central NE as of 0330z is expected to continue east-southeast,
reaching KOFK by about 07z. A period of MVFR visibilities
appears probable with the storms as the move through the
terminal location, with winds switching to northwest with gusts
of 35-40 kt. The models suggest the thunderstorms will weaken
thereafter, leading to uncertainty in whether they will reach
KOMA and/or KLNK. Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions are
expected, with south-southeast winds increasing to 15-17 kt with
gusts of 25-27 kt by 14-16z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Mead