482
FXUS63 KOAX 230500
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1100 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much warmer Sunday through the upcoming week. Highs will
  mostly be in the 40s and 50s, but a few 60s could sneak in at
  times.

- The warmer weather is expected to lead to ice movement on
  area rivers and streams. Ice jam potential will increase,
  especially as we approach next weekend.

- The next notable chance for precipitation (mainly rain) occurs
  Tuesday night into Wednesday (15-30% chance). Amounts are
  expected to only be a few hundredths of an inch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Pretty quiet across the region early this afternoon, and mild
compared to recent days, with temperatures as of 3 PM in the
30s to lower 40s. Surface analysis showed a stationary front
stretching south-southwest across eastern NE from roughly
Yankton, SD, through the Aurora area. To the west of the front,
westerly downslope flow had allowed temperatures to warm into
the 40s and even a few lower 50s in a few locations in the
western half of NE. Heading into tonight (and the next several
nights), will need to keep an eye on fog potential given the
melting snow. However, confidence is low in how widespread it
will become on any given night, with potential for passing mid
to high clouds associated with shortwave passages and guidance
suggesting winds just above the surface staying in the 10-20+ kt
range.

Heading into Sunday and the early part of the week, the front
to our west will push east, bringing that westerly downslope
flow to the area and allowing a steady warming trend. Expect
highs in the 40s and 50s Sunday and Monday and potentially
widespread 50s and a few 60s by Tuesday. Some of it will depend
on how quickly the existing snowpack melts, but guidance
suggests that by Tuesday/Wednesday, most of it should be gone in
our area.

There will be a couple relatively small precipitation chances
to watch through Wednesday. The first will be Monday
afternoon/evening as a weak shortwave passes by just
north/northeast of the area. Guidance is in pretty good
agreement that associated rain largely stays out of our area,
but a few various ensemble members, particularly in the EPS,
suggest far northeast NE into west-central IA could get clipped
by some sprinkles/light rain (10-15% chance). Slightly higher
and more widespread chances (15-30%) arrive late Tuesday night
into Wednesday as another shortwave trough and surface low pass
by/through (most likely to our northeast) and drag a cold front
through the area. Not much moisture to work with given the
persistent westerly to southwesterly flow ahead of the front,
but think there will be just enough forcing to squeeze out at
least a few hundredths of an inch in some locations (only about
a 10% chance of 0.10" per 22.12Z ensemble guidance). Generally
expect rain with Tuesday night lows mostly in the mid 30s, but
can`t completely rule out a few snowflakes mixing in.

Behind the front Wednesday, expect breezy northwesterly winds
gusting 25 to 35 mph which will cool us down a few degrees, but
still expect highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Widespread 50s
look to return Thursday with further warming into the mid 50s
and lower 60s by Friday. The persistent warm weather is expected
to eventually lead to ice movement on area rivers and streams,
with increasing potential for ice jams, especially as we
approach next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1056 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the period. A couple
of models continue to hint at the development of patchy fog near
the KOMA area, however the likelihood of it`s occurrence
remains too low to include at this time. Winds will remain
light, out of the south/southwest.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...KG