818
FXUS63 KOAX 062320
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
620 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An area of showers and thunderstorms will move across much of
  the area tonight into Saturday morning. Severe weather is
  unlikely (less than 5% chance). The greatest chance for a
  strong storm or rainfall up to an inch are along and south of
  a line from Albion to Omaha to Clarinda.

- Light showers are possible again on Sunday (40% chance),
  although any rainfall will be light.

- Expect a warming trend next week, with highs approaching 90 by
  Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A rather benign, weak low-level flow pattern is in place over
the area with light winds mainly out of the north today. There
is a fair amount of mid level moisture and cloud cover, but a
rather stable atmosphere this afternoon. The closest thing to a
front (arguably) is well south in north Texas and Oklahoma.
There are some showers in central and western Nebraska drifting
east in a zone of better quality moisture and jet diffluence
aloft, and these may bring a sprinkle or light rain shower into
the region this evening although it should be for the most part
dry. The feature of greater interest is a pretty healthy short
wave trough moving east across Wyoming this afternoon. There is
ample lightning over the high terrain with this system, and it
will move into the Nebraska Panhandle and then across the
southeastern part of the state by Saturday morning and Missouri
by the afternoon. Despite the impressive appearance of this
system, the atmosphere ahead of it is offering very little in
the way of instability due to weak lapse rates. The lower 2 km
of the wind profile are also very weak with minimal speed or
directional shear. So, while there is enough instability to
support thunderstorms with the system, the potential for
organized strong storms is quite low at this time. If a strong
storm were to develop, it would be within a narrow window of
availability of sufficient instability and barely sufficient
deep layer shear, and probably south of an Albion to Omaha to
Clarinda line in the 5-10 AM window. Aside from that, many folks
in this southern region can expect a quarter inch to an inch of
rain through noon or so.

Most of the rain from the morning system will pass to the
southeast by noon or so, but some lingering shallow instability
could support popcorn thunderstorms amid sunshine and daytime
heating in the mid/late afternoon hours. A bit of lightning
would be the main hazard with anything that develops, and
overall coverage is expected to be pretty sparse...but something
to keep in mind for any outdoor activities on Saturday.

Saturday night into Sunday, a strong longer-wave trough will
drop from Canada into Minnesota with a glancing blow from a cool
front (although more westerly flow than northerly locally). One
feature of interest with this system will be a zone of mid level
moisture and ascent gradually dropping south across the forecast
area on Sunday. NBM indicated less than 10% chance of precip,
but the combination of forcing and moisture suggest that a band
of scattered showers will likely develop and gradually drop
south during the day, with individual showers moving easterly
within the band. Instability is again limited and lightning
potential appears low, but something to watch again if you have
outdoor plans Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday is looking dry with a warming trend by
mid week as upper ridging develops into the Plains. Highs may
approach 90 by Wednesday and Thursday with scattered storm
chances returning by the end of the week and weekend as moisture
and instability increase into the region with some weakly forced
opportunities for storm development.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

VFR conditions start out what should be a mostly VFR TAF period with
an outside chance (25%) of seeing ceilings/visibilities dip during
periods of rain/storms. Winds start out on the very light side at
less than 10 kts, and should stay that way direction-wise until a
weak cluster of showers moves through overnight into the early
morning hours. Each of the terminals have a 3-4 hour period with
rain/storm chances moving in from the west, which also coincide with
the best MVFR chances. Some additional showers may linger on the
north side of the cluster of showers/storms, with lightning
activity, ceilings, and visibilities all improving as as the
back edge of them approaches. After those storms pass through,
winds turn generally west- southwesterly through the remainder
of the TAF period. There should be a bank of lower clouds that
passes just to the south of KLNK during the morning and early
afternoon hours, but KLNK is only expected to see SCT- coverage
clouds at FL025 as they skirt the northern edge of any
restrictions.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Petersen