430
FXUS63 KOAX 201055
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
555 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dreary Easter is on tap, with rain and mist overspreading
  the area this morning before wrapping up after 7 PM.

- Daily chances of rain and storms are expected for the work
  week, the first of which arrive Monday evening into Tuesday.

- Seasonable temperatures continue with highs in the 60s-70s
  expected through the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Today:

Water vapor imagery this morning features the digging leftover base
of yesterday`s trough preparing to eject from the New Mexico/Texas
vicinity into the Central Plains, while generally zonal flow exists
to the east and west. After a recent surface analysis, a low was
placed over west-central Texas, while a front extended
northeast from the low into southeastern Oklahoma and then ENE
towards TN/KY. Strong surface pressure falls over eastern Kansas
reveals this system`s hand, which is the deepening and
northward trajectory that will bring rainfall to much of the
area. As of 3:30 AM, areas of rain have progressed northward
across southeast and eastern Kansas, and should continue to fill
in to the west as the system continues to deepen, negatively
tilt, and eject northward.

Tracking some of the main components of this large scale trough,
deterministic models have the surface low skirting eastern Nebraska
and southwest Iowa to the southeast, keeping the warm sector and any
chances for a stronger storm east of the area. By the time that the
system`s center makes it to northwest Missouri, it should be mature
and vertically stacked, with our best chance to see better rainfall
coming along the northward-extending frontogenesis axis and some
CSI, but chances for seeing a rumble of thunder or two have been on
the decrease since yesterday as the main axis of rainfall has
shifted slightly east. Nonetheless, expected a dreary Easter, with
morning rainfall continuing through much of the afternoon before
largely clearing the area to the east by 8-10 PM. Rainfall amounts
should fall off pretty quickly as you go towards central Nebraska
and to nearly zero by the time you hit Grand Island and points to
the northwest. Highs should top out right around 50 degrees, with
the coolest areas being just to the west of the better rainfall.

Monday and Beyond:

With the Easter system continuing to jet off to the north-northeast
Monday morning, we`ll find ourselves in increasingly zonal flow with
a shortwave mid/upper trough traversing the northern tier of states
of the Intermountain West. Along with this shortwave will push a
cold front that will bring meager rain chances back to the area late
in the evening into the early hours of Tuesday. By that time, the
zonal pattern begins slightly leaning southwesterly and a shortwave
over the Central and Southern High Plains will help deepen a surface
low to anchor the aforementioned frontal boundary across northern
Kansas into eastern Iowa. This mid-to-late week period will be
marked by bountiful shortwave activity and modest warm air
advection, with plenty of chances at light rain and a rumble of
thunder. Overall rain amounts don`t look overly impressive either,
with persistent, focused ascent and moisture return being absent.
Nonetheless, a lean towards ECMWF guidance would give the far
southern periphery of the forecast area an outside chance at a
stronger storm or two, if the stalled out boundary does find
itself farther north Wednesday/Thursday.

Despite the active pattern and plentiful clouds that will line the
work week, highs should remain in the upper 60s and 70s. Our
next chance for a more potent storm system appear far from
certain, but could come as a more broad longwave trough enters
the Central Plains late this upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

VFR conditions start out the TAF period, with conditions set to
worsen first to MVFR ceilings and then IFR as widespread rain
moves in from the south. Peak rainfall times look to occur
around 18z, and the latest model runs show an earlier exit time
for rain at KOMA and KLNK. Visibilities are expected to worsen
alongside the better rainfall, but the forecast leans optimistic
for now until lower visibilities move into the area. Generally
north/northeasterly winds are expected with some gusts of 25+
kts expected at KLNK and KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen