897
FXUS63 KOAX 102322
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
622 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible tonight and again Tuesday
  night, with damaging wind gusts the primary hazard.

- Hot and humid conditions continue through Wednesday, with
  afternoon heat indices of 95 to 105 degrees.

- Widespread rain arrives Wednesday night (70-85% chance) and
  continue at times through Friday. Cooler weather follows, with
  highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Tonight and Tonight...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon depict mid-
level ridging centered over the Four Corners region and extending
into the southern Plains. Along the northern periphery of the ridge,
warm temperatures and near-daily thunderstorms chances will continue
for the next few days as weak disturbances embedded traverse
the region. High temperatures this afternoon are expected to
peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Thunderstorms chances return tonight as a shortwave disturbance
tracks through central South Dakota towards northeast Nebraska. CAM
guidance is in fairly good agreement on an MCS developing across
central South Dakota this evening, followed by an east-southeastward
track overnight. The primary uncertainty remains how far south this
system progresses. A more northerly track would largely keep
convection across South Dakota into northwest Iowa, while a
farther southeastward track could bring a threat for strong to
locally severe wind gusts (up to 60 mph) into far northeast
Nebraska early Tuesday morning.

Additional thunderstorm development is expected across western
Nebraska this evening, with convection pushing eastward during the
late evening and early overnight hours. The main question will again
be whether storms can remain organized long enough to reach eastern
Nebraska. A strengthening low-level jet nosing into eastern Nebraska
and far western Iowa overnight may provide enough support to sustain
convection. As for both areas of concern, elevated instability will
be sufficient, with shear likely the more limiting factor. Bulk
shear values near 30 kts is generally expected across the area, with
stronger values focused near and north of the NE/SD border. While an
isolated pocket of hail (up to 1") can`t be ruled out, damaging wind
gusts will remain the primary concern for any storms that can remain
sustained into the area.

Tuesday...

Any remnant cloud cover and convective debris should gradually
dissipate or shift out of the area by late Tuesday morning, allowing
temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s. The warmest
conditions are expected across southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa, closer to the ridging. Continued evapotranspiration and
low- level moisture transport will maintain dewpoints in the mid
to upper 70s, resulting in heat index values of 100-107
degrees. The highest values are expected across southeast NE and
southwest IA, where a Heat Advisory may be needed.

A spotty shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out Tuesday
afternoon, though the better potential arrives Tuesday night into
early Wednesday as another shortwave disturbance pivots across SD.
CAM consistency within the 12Z guidance remains relatively low, as
is often the case with weakly forced convective regimes. That said,
another overnight MCS developing across central SD and tracking east-
southeast towards northeast Nebraska appears plausible.

Elevated instability will again be plentiful, with bulk shear
increasing to around 35 kts near the NE/SD border. Model soundings
also depict relatively dry low-levels and DCAPE values near 1250
J/kg, supporting the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. As
with tonight`s system, the magnitude of the threat across our area
will largely depend on how far south the MCS tracks into eastern NE
and western IA.

Wednesday and Beyond...

Another hot and humid day is expected Wednesday, with highs in the
upper 980s to low 90s. A pattern chance begins later Wednesday as a
more potent shortwave disturbance ejects from the Front Range into
the central Plains, helping to dampen the ridge while bringing
cooler temperatures and more widespread precipitation chances to the
region. Another period of strong to severe storms will again be
possible on Wednesday evening.

PoPs increase Wednesday evening and peak in the 70-85% range
overnight into Thursday morning. While precipitation chances
decrease somewhat during the day Thursday, another shortwave
disturbance is expected to bring a renewed round of 50-70% PoPs
Thursday evening into early Friday. Persistent cloud cover and
periods of rainfall should keep highs mainly in the mid 70s to mid
80s from Thursday into the weekend, with intermittent precipitation
chances continuing through the period. The best rainfall potential
exists Wednesday night into Thursday, with the NBM bringing a 40-70%
probability of at least 1 inch of rainfall during this period, with
the highest probabilities focused in a corridor across northeast
Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Light southerly and easterly winds this evening are forecast to
linger through the next 24 hours. The primary concerns tonight
will be the threat of severe weather working along the SD state
line. It`s likely to remain north of all TAF sites, so have not
included it in this forecast.

Otherwise, expect some strong winds off the sfc, especially at
KLNK where sfc winds will be significantly slower than the
winds at FL012 that will be streaking out of the southwest at
40-50 knots between midnight and 10am.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Nicolaisen