872
FXUS63 KOAX 050435
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1135 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather expected for this afternoon and evening. A
  slight chance for scattered showers (around 15%) exists across
  northeast Nebraska.

- PoPs increase in coverage throughout the day Thursday (30-50%)
  and linger into Friday (30-50%). Rainfall amounts will be
  light at a few hundredths of an inch.

- Active pattern continues into Saturday with some low end
  chances for showers and storms (15-30%). Temperatures warm
  into the low 80s Saturday with a slight cool down Sunday and
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday Night/

A rather pleasant day is observed this afternoon across most of the
forecast area as the H8 ridge sits atop a vast portion of Nebraska
into Iowa, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Sfc winds are light with
temperatures as of 19z in the low to mid 70s. 19z RAP upper air
objective analysis shows a subtle wave between H5 and H7 across
western Nebraska helping generate some mid to high based clouds
along with some weak showers. As the wave continues to push to the
east northeast this afternoon and evening, some of these light
showers could affect mainly far northwest and southern portions of
the CWA. 19z KOAX WSR-88D shows a few reflectivity echoes across
Knox, Antelope, and Cedar counties, and also some weaker echoes over
Saline and Jefferson counties. Much of this doesn`t appear to be
reaching the ground as seen from roadcams in the area. BUFKIT
soundings show slightly better mid level saturation across northeast
Nebraska this afternoon, but a few pockets of dry air may help
hinder any precip. Low level dry air does appear to be more abundant
across southern portions of the forecast area. Have introduced some
very light PoPs across northeast Nebraska for this afternoon and
evening, around 15%, but most should experience dry conditions. Lows
tonight will be in the low to mid 50s with cloud cover increasing
throughout the night ahead of the next system.

Another weak shortwave will move in from the west with lift
gradually overspreading the forecast area throughout the day
Thursday. A weak 20-25 kt LLJ will help pump in Gulf moisture as
well, which will result in the gradual increase of PoP coverage
throughout the day from west to east. PoPs peak at 30 to 50%,
primarily in eastern Nebraska with the highest PoP chances over
western portions of the CWA. QPF amounts will remain light for this
event, generally a few hundredths of an inch at best. Some rumbles
of thunder are also possible given a few hundred J/kg of instability
seen in BUFKIT soundings, but not expecting severe weather.
Lingering wildfire smoke may make its way back into the area
Thursday afternoon too, with the HRRR and RAP showing some potential
for smoke arriving at the sfc. Highs Thursday will be in the low to
mid 70s with light southeasterly winds, while lows reach the mid to
upper 50s.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday/

Showers and storms (30-50% chance) linger into Friday as a shortwave
and vort max at H5 ejects from the western Dakotas into Nebraska.
Severe weather is not expected. QPF remains light with this activity
at a few hundredths of an inch as well. Highs will be slightly
warmer than Thursday, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

The active pattern continues into Saturday and early Sunday morning
with more low end chances (15-30%) for showers and storms as yet
another weak wave and vort max rides the northwest flow at H5. Some
machine learning algorithms show a low end risk for severe weather
Saturday, mainly across our far western counties where instability
is higher. Temperatures warm Saturday into the low 80s areawide, but
a cold front moving in tandem with the weak wave will result in
temperatures cooling some Sunday and Monday, with mid 70s mainly
north of I-80 and low 80s expected for areas across the south.

Models tend to be in good agreement of a H5 closed low ejecting from
Saskatchewan and Manitoba southeastward into the Northern Plains
later Sunday into Monday before departing Tuesday. NBM for this
forecast package has unmentionable PoPs during this period, but
can`t rule out a few scattered showers or storms those days given
the cyclonic flow and vorticity available aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout at least the
first half of the forecast period. Light northeasterly winds
will veer to southeasterly through the night. Light rain showers
will push in from west to east Thursday afternoon. The highest
confidence in impacts is at KOFK, with the scattered nature of
showers near KOMA and KLNK bring lower confidence in impacts
(25% chance). With the showers, a scattered to broken cloud deck
around FL030 could bring patchy MVFR conditions.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Wood