913
FXUS63 KOAX 101112
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
512 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold this morning with wind chills in the single digits to
  teens.

- Becoming much warmer this week with highs reaching the 60s to
  low 70s by Friday

- Dry through the workweek, then increasing precipitation
  chances this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Today and Tuesday:

Surface high pressure centered over the northern and central
Plains early this morning will build southeast through the area
today. The high pressure is associated with a cold,
continental-polar air mass with 2 AM temperatures in the teens
and 20s, and wind chills in the single digits and teens. The
air mass will undergo partial modification today with highs in
the mid 30s to low 40s. Some low clouds are present early this
morning along and east of the MO River. However, they should
dissipate prior to or shortly after daybreak with considerable
sunshine expected through the remainder of the day.

Tonight into Tuesday, a weak, mid-level impulse will track
through the northern Plains and mid-MO Valley in tandem with an
associated surface trough/weak front. Low-level warm advection
is forecast to develop ahead of the mid-level wave, supporting
an increase in clouds tonight into Tuesday morning. Clouds will
clear behind the surface front Tuesday afternoon with downslope
warming contributing to considerably warmer highs in the upper
50s to upper 60s.


Wednesday through Friday:

A mid-level ridge centered over the Rockies on Wednesday is
forecast to shift east into the Great Plains Thursday. Mid-level
heights begin to fall by Friday, downstream from a trough
moving through the Interior West. In the low levels, a lee
trough will deepen over the High Plains, with resultant
southerly winds drawing an increasingly warm and moist air mass
into the region, especially on Thursday and Friday. Highs in the
50s and 60s on Wednesday are expected to warm into the 60s
Thursday, and 60s to low 70s Friday.


This Weekend:

The 00z deterministic and ensemble mean numerical guidance
indicate the above-mentioned, mid-level trough moving into the
central U.S. However, differences exist in the handling of the
southern aspect of the trough in the form of a closed low
tracking through the south-central states. That variability in
the mid-level pattern translates to timing differences with
associated cold front moving through our area, and the
precipitation distribution along and ahead of the front.

This forecast update will indicate increasing precipitation
chances Saturday afternoon into Sunday with highs in the 50s and
60s Saturday cooling into the 40s by Sunday. This scenario could
change between now and then once the models come into better
agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period with increasing high-level cloudiness (FL200-250). The
MVFR cloud deck that moved through KOMA early this morning
currently resides between KOMA and KLNK, where it is expected to
dissipate within the next couple of hours. Light northwest winds
this morning are forecast to switch to southwest or south this
afternoon at less than 12 kt. The exception is at KOFK where
winds will strengthen to 12 kt for a few hours this afternoon.
South winds will then strengthen to 12 kt by 11/03-05z at all
terminal locations, at which time LLWS will also develop.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead