881
FXUS63 KOAX 310915
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
315 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain pushing southeast of the area by around 9 this morning.

- Warm through the weekend with highs mostly in the 40s and 50s.
  A cold front on Sunday will bring a return to 30s and lower
  40s for at least the first part of next week.

- The warm temperatures could lead to ice jam development in the
  Platte and Elkhorn river basins this weekend.

- Mostly dry conditions favored through the next week with only
  a 15-30% chance of light snow Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Early morning analysis showed an interesting pattern with a
large cutoff low spinning over KS/OK along with two separate
"local" cutoff lows within it over the OK/TX border and the
KS/MO border. At the surface, corresponding areas of low
pressure were analyzed over southern OK and northern MO, with
the northern one being the "dominant" one. To the west/northwest
of said low, a deformation band of precip stretched from
southwest KS through the NE/KS/IA/MO border area and into south-
central IA. It was mostly falling as rain, but there was an ob
or 2 that reported snow overnight. As temperatures continue to
fall into the lower to mid 30s this morning, a few snowflakes
may continue to mix in, but not expecting it to accumulate with
road temps likely staying above freezing. In addition, the
precip will continue to push off to the southeast, so it should
be pretty light (if not completely out of the area) by the time
we cool enough for snow. Latest short term guidance suggests
it`s out of our area by around 9 AM.

Behind the departing precip/low, we`ll see somewhat breezy
north winds today with gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Despite these
winds, temperatures still look to remain above average for this
time of year, with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Warm
weather will stick around through the weekend as we`ll be under
zonal flow aloft while an area of surface low pressure hangs out
in western SD and helps to bring southerly flow to the forecast
area. In fact, Saturday looks even breezier than today, with
gusts of 25-30+ mph. Temperatures look to top out in the upper
40s to mid 50s both days, with perhaps a few spots making a run
at 60, especially on Sunday. Should also mention potential for
fog Saturday morning as moisture advection ramps up, especially
in areas that received the recent rainfall. However, winds aloft
will also be quite strong, so not sure how widespread any
development would be. As it stands, HREF guidance suggests about
a 30-50% chance in far southeast NE/far southwest IA. Finally,
the warm temperatures are also expected to lead to continued ice
movement along area rivers, increasing the potential for ice
jams.

By Sunday afternoon, some shortwave energy looks to pass by to
our north and kick out the aforementioned surface low over
western SD, pushing it east-southeast through the area. It will
drag a fairly strong cold front through the area, bringing
temperatures closer to average for this time of year for at
least the start of next week. Expect highs mostly in the 30s to
lower 40s Monday followed by upper 20s to 30s Tuesday. We should
stay dry in this period as the front won`t have much moisture
to work with and the stronger vorticity advection will remain
to our north.

The front will stall somewhere to our south and start to work
back north as a warm front sometime Tuesday into Wednesday.
There is quite a bit of spread in guidance regarding how far
north the front makes it by Wednesday, which will play a large
role in the temperature forecast. Just looking at the 31.00Z GFS
vs. ECMWF reveals a 10 to 20 degree spread in high
temperatures, with the GFS suggesting some places get back into
the upper 50s to lower 60s while the ECMWF keeps us in the 30s
and 40s. Similar spreads can be seen in the various ensembles,
though the lean is currently toward cooler solutions with
guidance suggesting only a 10-30% chance we hit at least 50
degrees.

There are also some low end precip chances in the
Wednesday/Thursday timeframe along the warm front pushing north
and along/behind another cold front progged to push southeast
through the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Still a lot of
details to work out here regarding moisture availability,
timing, and precip type, but currently have about a 15-30%
chance of mostly light snow given the favored cooler solutions,
though confidence is rather low. Otherwise, we`ll remain cool
behind the cold front, with upper 20s to mid 30s favored to end
next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1104 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

We`re seeing improving conditions as the cloud shield from the
low pressure system to our southeast shifts off to the east. We
could still see some showers at KLNK and KOMA through 08Z, but
cig should lift to 3500 ft at KOMA by 07-08Z. We`ll see skies
clear at the terminals early Friday with winds increasing out
of the north, gusting to 25kt. We`ll see winds drop off Friday
afternoon as they start to shift to westerly then back to the
southeast near the end of the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...McCoy