738
FXUS63 KOAX 250450
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monday will be the coolest day this week with morning lows in
  the upper 40s to low 50s and afternoon highs in the low 70s.

- Slight chance (15%) of a shower or storm for Boone and
  Antelope counties overnight Monday night into early Tuesday.

- Cooler than normal temperatures continue through next weekend
  with chances for rain Wednesday-Thursday (20-30%) and again
  on Saturday (15-30%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Partly cloudy skies across our northeastern counties this
afternoon with greater cloud cover and a few isolated showers
across our southeastern Nebraska counties. A stationary front
has set itself up across southwest Kansas with a surface low
triggering showers and storms over north-central Kansas and
south-central Nebraska. This activity has been winding down and
will continue to taper off over the next few hours.
Temperatures are currently in the low 70s and may warm another
couple degrees into the mid-70s.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows that the trough over the
Central CONUS yesterday has shifted east over the Ohio River
Valley this afternoon with the ridge over the West Coast pushing
inland toward the Four-Corners region. This has only led to an
increase in northwesterly flow and cool-air advection into the
region helping to keep high temperatures lower this afternoon.
This will also allow temperatures to fall into the upper 40s-low
50s by Monday morning, the coolest morning since last Spring.

Monday will be the coolest day this week with highs in the low
70s. We see a shortwave trigger showers and storms over north-
central Nebraska Monday night, possibly clipping our far
northwest counties including Antelope and Boone counties. They
will have to overcome a significant amount of dry air, however,
so confidence is very low we`ll see anything reach the ground.

Tuesday as the ridge out west pushes into the Rockies and starts
to amplify, we see gradually building geopotential heights start
to counteract the strong cool-air advection bringing afternoon
highs back up into the mid-to-upper 70s. This trend continues
into Wednesday with highs approaching 80 degrees Wednesday
afternoon. However, a trough dropping out of
Alberta/Saskatchewan will move through Wednesday night into
Thursday bringing our next, decent chance for showers and
storms, especially for locations south of I-80 in southeast
Nebraska (20-30%).

We see a trailing ridge pass over the area Thursday-Saturday
weakening the cool-air advection, but actually serving to
reinforce the mild air mass as it continues to funnel in
the air mass out of western Canada. Over the weekend, we see the
start of a fairly active pattern set up with the first in a
series of shortwaves moving through Saturday night into Sunday
bringing another chance for showers and storms. Details as well
as severe potential are uncertain at this time.

Beyond the upcoming weekend, the Climate Prediction Center is
forecasting continued cooler than normal temperatures with above
normal precip going into next week. This lines up with what the
models are showing for a more active weather pattern setting up
going into next week. Still wouldn`t rule out another hot spell
through September, but it certainly feels like Fall may be
trying to start early.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR conditions favored through the period with some passing
clouds around 5000-7000 ft, especially during the day Monday.
Clear skies and light winds could lead to some fog development
near and east of the Missouri River, but winds aloft should stay
strong enough to keep it pretty patchy. At the surface, winds
will remain light, mainly out of the northeast to east. Finally,
some guidance hints at some spotty shower development in
northeast Nebraska, including OFK, Monday afternoon. However,
confidence is low in them actually developing (10% chance), and
even if they do, they should be very light.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...CA