085
FXUS63 KOAX 311033
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
533 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional storms expected overnight tonight into Sunday.
  Potential for isolated damaging winds and large hail.

- A summer-like pattern sets up next week keeping warm and
  muggy weather in place with additional daily chances for
  showers and thunderstorms throughout the week.

- Potential for hotter temperatures next weekend and beyond,
  with daily chances for showers and storms continuing through
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A line of storms has moved into southeast Nebraska this
evening, associated with a trough axis stretching from Oregon
east across Nebraska. These storms are moving into an
environment with weaker shear though with sufficient elevated
instability for hail up to quarter-size. 00Z CAMs have come in
predicting this line will mostly dissipate over the next few
hours, with redevelopment as the trough axis arrives closer to
1-3am over northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska. Again, we could
see some damaging wind and hail threat, but with limited shear
the severe weather potential should remain low.

Storms should mostly clear our area after daybreak on Sunday.
Mid-level dry air advecting in should limit coverage of
additional showers and storms through the day on Sunday as we
stay in a fairly baroclinic pattern near the nose of a jet
streak stretching from central California east into western
Nebraska. This jet streak shifts north on Monday as we start to
see ridging build up over the Central US. As high pressure
builds we see precip chances drop off and clearing skies on
Monday. Moisture streams up the west side of the ridge,
generating showers and storms across western Nebraska and Kansas
on Monday evening, developing into an MCS. Confidence is low on
how this convective complex will evolve and track this far out,
but we could see some potential storms overnight Monday night
into early Tuesday if it tracks east into our area.

As we go into next week, we see the west-east trough axis from
Sunday cut off, holding in place and spinning, forcing ridge
development to shift eastward into midweek. Tuesday, the evening
storm development sets up across Central Kansas and Nebraska
with potential for an overnight MCS tracking into our area from
this development. Wednesday-Thursday the ridge shifts far enough
east that the belt of moisture sets up over our area. This means
afternoon/evening storm development over our area.

Toward the end of the week we see a potent jet streak and
upper-level trough push into the PacNW. This finally forces
troughing over the Intermountain West eastward, dampening the
ridge and forcing it eastward over the Tennessee Valley. We`ve
seen an interesting shift in the pattern going into next weekend
from previous forecasts, now seeing ridging set up farther north
going into next weekend with southwesterly flow setting up over
the Central Plains. If this occurs, while we will still see
significant warming with temperatures likely climbing into at
least the upper 80s-low 90s, storm chances will continue going
into next weekend with some potential for severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 528 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Generally VFR conditions start the forecast period, with a deck
of MVFR ceilings in east-central Nebraska likely working into
KOFK for a few hours. There is lower confidence in MVFR
conditions making it to KOMA and KLNK. Scattered showers
continue across the terminals this morning, gradually clearing
from west to east over the next few hours. Ceilings will
gradually break up and improve through the morning and early
afternoon, bringing VFR conditions to all terminals through the
remainder of the forecast period. Southeasterly winds will
continue at 8-10 kts, though a few gusts may approach 20 kts
under rain showers this morning. Additional showers and storms
are possible (30% chance) after 01/06Z, primarily at KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Wood