760
FXUS63 KOAX 121026
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
526 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers will exit northeast Nebraska this morning, with
  another round developing after 6 PM for the same areas.

- Strong southeasterly winds will gust to 30-40 mph, with the
  strongest winds across northeast Nebraska before a cold front
  swings them northwesterly as it moves through the area.

- Cooler Monday and Tuesday, warmer Wednesday and Thursday with
  near-daily rain chances ahead of a cooldown this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Today:

Water vapor imagery this morning features a deepening longwave
trough moving eastward across the Interior West sandwiching
positively-tilted and weakening ridging with a cutoff low
spinning over the southeastern Atlantic Coast. Drilling down to
the local area, a recent surface analysis places a warm front
laid from northwest to southeast from the surface low in western
North Dakota through eastern Nebraska and Kansas, working with
the falling warm air advection and a mid/upper shortwave to
develop scattered shower activity across northeast Nebraska into
South Dakota. Due to dry air near the surface, it`s taken a few
rounds of elevated showers to help moisten the lower levels
enough to get rainfall at the surface, but several of the
ASOS/AWOS locations have reported rainfall over the last couple
of hours. In addition to the showers, a strong surface pressure
gradient has set up and limited cooling from the protective
cloud cover has allowed the surface to still remain coupled
enough for gusts of 20 to 30 mph to continue this morning, with
deeper mixing expected this afternoon that should allow gusts to
push above 35 mph.

Heading further into the morning and early afternoon hours, expect
most of the shower activity to follow the best warm air advection
and the shortwave away and to the northeast of the forecast area.
Gusts will be the main concern of the afternoon hours, with gusts of
30-35 mph expected for much of the forecast area while northeast
Nebraska could see gusts out of the south-southeast to 40 mph. Well
above normal warmth is set to push highs into the mid 80s, while the
weaker moisture return from the weaker flow across the Southern
Plains and deep mixing will let relative humidity values bottom out
in the 35-45% range, which won`t be quite low enough to cause major
fire danger concerns with the currently forecast winds. What could
complicate those hoping to burn today would be the approaching cold
front, that will shift winds northwesterly as it sweeps through the
area beginning at 4 PM. In addition to the wind shift, enough
forcing for ascent along and just behind the front will be present
that could help kick off isolated-to-scattered showers and a stray
rumble of thunder from 6 PM to midnight that could tap into the
couple hundred joules of MUCAPE rooted at around 700 mb. Effective
shear with these showers and storms won`t be strong enough to help
facilitate any severe risk with the meager instability, though a
gust of wind or two could occur as an rainfall evaporates into the
well mixed PBL.

Monday and Beyond:

With the cold front passing through the area, we`ll have a crisp
morning Monday as temperatures bottom out in the 40s and 50s that
will only recover into the 60s area-wide. Expect a mostly dry
afternoon before scattered showers begin wafting in from the
southwest as a mid/upper shortwave and warm air advection at 850 mb
move into the area during the evening hours. Once again, we`ll have
little to work with in terms of ingredients for deep moist
convection, so expect and absence of thunder with most of the area
struggling to see 0.1" of rainfall. Another dip in terms of
high temperatures is expected Tuesday into the upper 50s and
60s, with Omaha forecast to hit 63 degrees (about 4 degrees
below normal). Additional afternoon/evening shower chances are
currently forecast as another bit of shortwave moves through in
continued 850 mb warm air advection, that generally slides north
of the area as troughing to the west deepens and ridging over
the Central Plains builds.

A brief warming trend is forecast for Wednesday and Thursday,
pushing highs into the lower 70s, then upper 70s before rain chances
arrive Friday along with another cold front to help us cool down as
the aforementioned trough to the west ejects to the northeast. Rain
chances should diminish through Saturday and Sunday with a strong
jet dipping along and just south of the area to bring some of our
coolest temperatures to the area this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

TAF forecasts have been on target so far this morning, with
showers skirting to the north and east of KOFK while KOMA/KLNK
stay too far south to see any rain. Wind gusts are already in
place across the area, with speeds expected to ramp up this
afternoon to nearly 30 or more kts out of the southeast. An
approaching wind shift will bring a 1-2 hour period with no
gusts, before switching them northwesterly beginning 21z at
KOFK, and 00/01z for KLNK and KOMA respectively. A stray shower
or storm is possible after 00z (15-20% chance), but the
likelihood isn`t high enough to include in the TAF at this
time.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen