506
FXUS63 KOAX 231729
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1129 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will gradually warm into the start of the work
  week. Highs are expected in the mid 40s to the 60s.

- The next notable chance for precipitation occurs Tuesday night
  into Wednesday (15-30% chance), with rain the anticipated
  precipitation type.

- Warmer temperatures are expected to cause ice movement on
  local rivers and streams, increasing the potential for ice
  jams, especially as we approach next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Short Range (Today through Tuesday)

The main story in the short term will be the gradually rising
temperatures as a thermal ridge builds into the central CONUS. Mid
to upper-level flow remains zonal to northwesterly with a few
shortwave disturbances moving through during the week. Conditions
remain calm this morning, with low temperatures dipping into the
upper teens to mid 20s, about ten degrees warmer than yesterday
morning. Patchy snowpack fog, particularly in low-lying and wind
protected areas, may develop over the next few mornings as we
continue to melt snow away.

Westerly downslope flow will bring warming this afternoon, with
highs reaching the mid 40s to upper 50s. High temperatures will
largely depend on lingering snowpack. Visible satellite imagery
from Saturday afternoon/evening displays considerable snowmelt
progress across northeast and southeast Nebraska, where the
shallowest depths were present. These areas could reach into the mid
to upper 50s today. However, east-central NE and west-central IA
still have a decent snowpack in place, keeping temperatures on the
lower end of expectations. Highs on Monday and Tuesday are expected
to climb into the 50s to upper 60s, with much of the remaining
snowpack expected to melt away during this period. Have opted to
nudge highs up over the next few days given that we overperformed
NBM highs yesterday, especially in areas with limited snowpack.

A shortwave disturbance will pass through the Dakotas on Monday,
with limited forcing and moisture. Sprinkles/light rain will
possible, though model soundings only display a narrow saturated
layer with considerable dry air in the sub-cloud layer. Therefore,
PoPs only peak at 15% in northeast NE during Monday afternoon,
increasing further north.

Long Range (Wednesday and Beyond)

The best chance for precipitation this week will come Tuesday night
into early Wednesday as another shortwave disturbance moves across
the northern and central Plains. Once again, moisture will be
limited, with only a few hundredths of an inch of QPF. PoP remain in
the 15 to 30% range, peaking in northeast NE. Light rain is the
expected precipitation type. This disturbance will also help to push
a cold front through the area early Wednesday, bringing gusty
northwesterly winds (25-35 mph) behind the front. The post frontal
air mass will bring Wednesday highs into the 50s.

Highs through the remainder of the work week are expected in the 50s
to mid 60s, 10 to 20 degrees above the climatological average. Long
range guidance hints as cooler air moving in next weekend, though
the intensity has decreased with consecutive runs. Currently, highs
are expected to remain in the 50s. The Elkhorn and Platte rivers
will need monitoring this week as recent cold temperatures have
increased ice thickness. With the incoming warm up, ice breakup is
expected, keeping the Ice Jam Risk Indicator in the elevated
category.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

VFR conditions favored through the period with increasing high
level clouds this evening/overnight. Can`t completely rule out
some patchy MVFR fog development like last night, but given the
incoming clouds and strong winds aloft, not confident in it
impacting TAF sites at this time. Surface winds will be light
and southwesterly through much of the period before becoming
northwesterly Monday morning. Could also see a period of low
level wind shear from around 5-10Z, with winds at 1000 ft agl
around 40 to 45 kts out of the west to northwest.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...CA