950
FXUS63 KOAX 060956
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
356 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The day begins with patchy freezing fog.

- Expect some slick roads Saturday into early Sunday as snow and
  some ice moves through. The highest potential for at least 1"
  will be northeast of a Plainview, NE to Harlan, IA line
  (60-90% chance).

- Breezy winds that gust to 25-35 mph will join the snow/ice
  Saturday, further reducing visibilities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

The diurnal curve is a bit bumpy for a second time this week.
Temperatures at KOMA have climbed/held steady since midnight
with a low stratus deck moving in from the northwest. It`s
covered the north-eastern half of the forecast area. Patchy fog
has developed in a few isolated locations where visibility has
dipped below two miles at times. Expect that fog to become more
widespread by sunrise. Dense fog is not expected at this time,
but slick spots are possible with the sub-freezing temps.
Confidence isn`t high in the fog forecast. It never is with a
fog forecast.

Water vapor imagery this morning shows high clouds streaming in
from the northwest with a surface low developing near Gillette
in eastern Wyoming.

The sfc low will help develop a north-south line of
precipitation that will push through the area today from west to
east. Likely PoPs push into northeast Nebraska by 9am with
temps expected to be hung up in the mid-20s along the SD state
line. This should keep precip falling entirely as snow in
northeast Nebraska through the day where accumulations will be
greatest. (They`ll be even higher in South Dakota, but that`s
NWS Sioux Falls` concern.) Accumulations in the northern tier of
counties in the OAX CWA are shaded purple to represent a WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY where accumulations are expected to range from
about 1" to 4" locally. Greatest accumulations should be
wrapped up by about 9pm this evening.

As for areas farther south where it will be a few degrees warmer,
some rain and possibly some freezing rain is expected to mix
in, preventing meaningful snow accumulations. Would love to
remove the threat of freezing rain from the forecast, but
forecast soundings show at least a chance of its development.
The NAM is especially gung-ho with a strong surge of warmer air
at H8. While the surface would remain sub- freezing, snow would
melt at about 3kft AGL before re-freezing on contact here at
the surface of the earth. It`s a recipe for slick roads. Still,
these solutions are in the minority, leaving the likelihood of
snow at Omaha and Lincoln at about 50%, but freezing rain only
at about 10-15% (regular rain is at about 25%). In other words,
we`re suggesting preparation for a wintry mix along I-80 mid-day
today. I have sped up expected timing of the wave of precip
just a bit... expect PoPs to peak at Lincoln around noon and
around 1pm for the Omaha metro. The east to west extent will be
wider along the SD state line than it will be farther south.
Thus, the precip is expected to last for maybe two or three
times longer up north than it will in say... Wahoo.

The NBM didn`t have a good handle on wind speeds with the
surface low passing directly through the area at about sunset.
Behind this pressure minimum, northwest winds develop and I`ve
pushed sustained speeds up to 10-15 knots with gusts up to 30
knots as suggested by momentum transfer methods.

Temps plunge quickly tonight despite the lingering overcast
skies.

.SUNDAY...

The day begins with temps in the teens for most, but single
digits are expected where 1-4" of fresh snow is expected up
north. Cold air advection continues from the surface through
H7. Sfc temps peak only in the mid- teens from points east and
north of Omaha.

The cold air won`t last. An H8 short wave pushes through SoDak
and pulls a warm front through Nebraska on Sunday night. Forcing
isn`t expected to be strong enough to produce precip here (PoPs
10%) on Sunday night.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND BEYOND...

Temps will improve by 15-20 degrees from where they were on
Sunday. They`ll be driven another ten degrees higher on Tuesday
as a closed low approaches from the northwest - caught up in
the H5 flow. Current global guidance has a wide range of timing
and location details, but do agree with each other that the
greatest QPF will fall closer to central Iowa and Minnesota.

The West Coast ridge will amplify and our area will be subject
to a parade of shortwaves and regular opportunities for
showers. The NBM currently offers up 20% PoPs of mostly snow,
but some freezing rain, too on Thursday. Expect a lot of changes
in this portion of the forecast in the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Models are less confident in the coverage of fog developing
overnight than with the earlier forecast package, likely due to
increasing cloud cover from the northwest. Still think there is
a 40% chance of fog impacting KOMA and KLNK so went ahead and
left in a shorter period of fog than the previous TAF package.
With this shorter period, we`ll likely see fog clear out before
any stratus moves in with the storm system arriving midday
today, keeping cigs VFR for longer. Still think cigs are going
to tank at KOFK later this morning where more widespread
snowfall is expected, but likely won`t see MVFR cigs move into
KOMA until between 19-21Z. Once low cigs move in, though, we
should see cigs lower to IFR towards this evening once winds
shift to northerly. KLNK will stay VFR most of the TAF period as
precip and low clouds likely won`t make it that far south, but
once the winds shift to northerly, expect low clouds to move
into KLNK toward the end of the TAF period as well.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST
     this evening for NEZ011-012-015-018.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST
     this evening for IAZ043-055-056.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...McCoy