133
FXUS63 KOAX 072344
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
544 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flurries and light snow showers are possible (20-40% chance)
  this afternoon and early evening, mainly across northeast
  Nebraska.

- A brief warmup is expected Monday into Tuesday, with highs in
  the 30s on Monday, rising to the 40s and low 50s on Tuesday.

- Precipitation chances increase late Wednesday into Thursday
  (25-50%), followed by a return to cooler conditions by the
  end of the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Tonight through Tuesday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon depicts a
broad, mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern two-thirds of the
CONUS, while riding continues to build into the western CONUS. At
the surface, a corridor of high pressure stretching from the
SD/ND/MN border into northeast NE is being pushed eastward as a
shortwave disturbance pushes into central NE/SD. Ahead of the wave,
continued CAA and mostly cloudy skies has kept afternoon highs in
the chilly 20s. The passage of the wave later this afternoon
into early evening will bring a chance for light snow, with PoPs
ranging from 20-40%. Forcing for ascent is strongest along the
NE/SD border and diminishes to the south, so light snow chances
decrease moving into southeast NE and southwest IA. QPF remains
limited, generally under 0.05", so accumulations are expected to
be a light. A dusting is most likely, though a narrow swath in
northeast Nebraska could approach a quick 0.5" (20% chance). The
primary impact will be a few slick spots and minor reductions
in visibility under any snow showers that are able to hold
together.

Following the wave`s passage, surface winds will shift to southerly,
allowing warmer air to return to the region. A shift to zonal to
northwesterly flow aloft will also support some additional downslope
warming. Cloud cover will begin to break up and improve overnight,
allowing radiational cooling to bring overnight lows in the teens
and wind chills in the single digits. Monday afternoon highs will
climb into the 30s and low 40s. The warming trend will continue into
Tuesday, with highs reaching the 40s and potentially the low 50s in
east-central Nebraska. The upper-level pattern will remain active,
but any significant wave passages and associated precipitation will
largely remain north and east of the area. A clipper system passing
to the our north from midday Tuesday into early Wednesday will
tighten the surface pressure gradient, producing northwesterly wind
gusts of 30-35+ mph.

Wednesday and Beyond...

A pattern shift is expected Wednesday into Thursday as a shortwave
disturbance pivots around the larger eastern CONUS trough and moves
into the region, bringing a ribbon of enhanced vorticity and
frontogenesis. Highs will dip into the 30s on Wednesday as
precipitation chances increase late Wednesday into Thursday,
with PoPs of 25-50% in place. Precipitation is likely to begin
as a rain/snow mix before transitioning to all snow. GEFS and
EPS/EPS-AIFS ensemble members are generally in agreement of a
1-2" band of snow tracking from the Dakotas into eastern NE,
though confidence is lower for how far south the band will
reach, as the strongest forcing for ascent remains to the north.
Ensemble guidance indicates a 20-40% probability of 1" of snow
across northeast Nebraska, decreasing to around 10% along the
I-80 corridor.

Behind this system, a second surge of cool Arctic air will settle in
under strong north-northwesterly flow aloft, pushing Friday and
Saturday highs down into the teens across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 544 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Models have not been performing well forecasting cigs today, so
confidence isn`t as high as usual in forecast ceilings
overnight. Right now we`re seeing MVFR cigs out west expand
eastward as a band of light snow continues across eastern
Nebraska. This should continue to dissipate as it continues
eastward, but KOMA and KLNK could see a brief period of flurries
at the terminals reducing visibility to around 3-4 SM. As this
dissipates, models forecast that cigs may improve just behind
the line, cigs around FL035 at KOFK and KOMA later this evening.
Meanwhile, cigs are more pessimistic at KLNK with a higher
percentage of model guidance suggesting cigs remain MVFR through
the overnight hours into Monday morning. There is some
suggestion that cigs may go down even more at KLNK, and KOMA may
drop back to MVFR around 10-12Z Monday morning. Went ahead and
indicated that in the TAFs as enough model guidance show this,
but we should start seeing cigs clear out towards 17-18Z with
VFR conditions at the terminals through the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...McCoy