113
FXUS63 KOAX 071029
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
429 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunday morning wind chills are reading in the single digits
  above and below zero.

- A brief warmup arrives early next week: highs climb into the
  30s on Monday, then into the 40s and even low 50s on Tuesday
  before another push of colder air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Cold air continues to pour into the area this morning behind the
cold front that`s pushing though central Missouri early this
morning. The western edge of the cold air has come to rest
against the Front Range of the Rockies, but will be scoured out
over the course of the day as ridging builds over the western
CONUS.

As the warm air pushes east, it will be forced upward
(isentropic upglide) and may produce some isolated snowflakes
this afternoon. PoPs peak at about 30% northwest of Norfolk
this afternoon, and slip as the warm front progresses east after
sunset (15%). Likely PoPs will be found just north of I-90 in
South Dakota closer to the center of the low-level shortwave
pulling the warm front across Nebraska. QPF is negligible.
Forecast impacts are negligible, too.

Despite the warm front`s passage, temps won`t change all that
much today, warming only by about five degrees. Southerly winds
and mostly cloudy skies are apt to do that. Teens and 20s for
AM lows... teens and twenties for highs, too! Exactly a year
ago, we set record highs in the 60s.

Teen temps hold on through Sunday night, too, at least for most
locations with some single digits developing in western Iowa by
early Monday morning.

.MONDAY and TUESDAY...

The arctic air kicked east, some extra sunshine, and continued
southerly flow should allow Monday`s temps to improve enough to
melt snow across the entire area on Monday with Tuesday`s temps
jumping another 10-15 degrees to above seasonal norms.

A closed low caught up in northwest H5 flow will bring wintry
precip across the central CONUS on Tuesday night and Wednesday,
but deterministic global models have favored solutions with a
more northeasterly track of the low`s center and thus its
precipitation. PoPs have now fallen below 10% for Tuesday.

.WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

The busy northwesterly H5 flow brings another chance of precip
on Wednesday night. There are plenty of disagreements in
guidance, but most ensemble members of GEFS/ENS/GEPS show a
little precip over the course of Wednesday, though many of them
show just a trace or so. Our 40% PoPs represent the chance of
*measurable* precip (above a trace). An inch or two of snow is
 possible if the timing/location works out.

Regardless if the precip materializes, it does seem we`ll be
dealing with another arctic outbreak as temps drop considerably
for the end of the week. Again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1149 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

IFR conditions have expanded south to KOMA and KLNK, and cigs
have lowered to LIFR at KOFK. Expect reduced conditions to hold
overnight with winds out of the north. We`ll see cigs start to
lift between 13-15Z on Sunday, with winds starting to relax a
bit to around 08-10kt. We`ll see clouds gradually breaking up
through the morning from northeast to southwest, with MVFR cigs
more likely holding through the day at KOFK. This will bring
VFR conditions to KOMA and KLNK by 16-17Z. Clouds from the west
will spread back eastward toward the evening, with some
uncertainty in how low they will be when they arrive at KLNK and
KOMA around 00Z. Model spread has cigs anywhere from FL050 to
FL015, but greater confidence (60%) is in VFR cigs probably
around 3500-5000 ft. At the same time, winds will be shifting to
southeasterly.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...McCoy