714
FXUS63 KOAX 082029
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
229 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief warmup is expected into Tuesday, with highs warming
  into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

- Strong winds possible (50% chance) Tuesday night into
  Wednesday morning with gusts 40 to 50 mph.

- Snow chances late Wednesday into Thursday (20-40%), followed
  by a return of colder temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Low clouds this afternoon are gradually clearing from west to
east across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. These clouds
have made it hard for areas along and east of a line from
Norfolk to Lincoln to warm up, with temperatures still in the
upper 20s to low 30s under the clouds. Once clouds clear,
though, warm air advection should allow temperatures to pop up
pretty quickly before sunset, with highs still expected to reach
into the mid 30s in Omaha, and low 40s for areas west of
Fremont.

The upper-level pattern shows a standing wave across the CONUS
which will remain fairly stationary through the rest of the
week, with a broad ridge over the West Coast, and troughing over
the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. This will allow for a
series of clipper systems to eject out of the Canadian Rockies
southward into the Northern Plains over the next several days
providing at least one decent chance for precipitation Thursday
into Friday.

Looking at tonight, the first in this series of impulses
arrives, mainly bringing cloud cover to the area and a shift in
winds to west or southwesterly. A low pressure system passing to
our north will bring a warm front through which will only
increase warm-air advection into Tuesday leading to some
potential for fog development early Tuesday morning depending on
how much winds are able to relax. For now, model guidance isn`t
sold on the potential for fog, so have left it out of the grids,
but I`d say there`s about a 30% chance we see fog between 5-10
AM on Tuesday. With a significant amount of warm-air advection
ongoing on Tuesday, temperatures are going to warm into the mid
40s to low 50s across the area Tuesday afternoon which will
likely lead to significant snowmelt across the area.

The next, much more dynamic clipper Low will skirt to our north
tomorrow night into Wednesday, primarily bringing the potential
for strong winds to eastern Nebraska and western Iowa as it
deepens fairly rapidly over Minnesota and Iowa. We may need a
Wind Advisory for the overnight hours Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning for gusts 40 to 50 mph. Right now soundings
show a stout inversion in place which would help keep those
stronger winds up above the surface layer, but that burns off
around 15Z which would allow those 40 to 50 mph gusts to reach
the surface for the late morning hours toward the tail end of
the event. If we see that inversion mix out earlier we could
potentially see several hours of gusts 40 to 50 mph starting
around midnight. This same system could potentially bring some
light rain to far northeast Nebraska Tuesday afternoon, but
should exit the area before temperatures get cold enough for
snow.

Wednesday colder air moves back in behind the low pressure
system exiting to the east with temperatures only warming into
the low-to-mid 30s across much of our area. This will prime the
environment for our next, weaker, shortwave which could lead to
the development of a frontogenesis band stretching somewhere
from western South Dakota into eastern Nebraska overnight
Wednesday night into early Thursday. We`ll want to watch this
closely as these bands typically bring a narrow corridor of
heavier snow with sharp cutoffs north and south with little-to-
no snow.

Behind this Thursday system we see another cold front move
through, this time bringing more arctic air into the area for
the weekend. Any additional chances for snow will be highly
dependent on any shifts in the standing wave across the CONUS
with the storm track bringing additional impulses out of the
Canadian Rockies. Right now, ensemble guidance is predicting the
storm track will shift slightly farther northeast keeping us dry
and cold over the weekend. Temperatures will be cooling back
down starting Friday with highs down in the teens to mid 20s
across much of the area. Highs remain in the teens to mid 20s
into Saturday as well. We may start to see temperatures rebound
a bit on Sunday as guidance suggests the ridge over the west
coast finally starts to shift eastward, but with how far out in
the forecast this is, there is still a lot of uncertainty.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1058 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

IFR cigs have socked in across eastern Nebraska and are
impacting all the terminals this morning. These will be slow to
clear, but we should see gradual clearing from west to east.
KOFK looks like will clear here around 19-20Z, while KOMA and
KLNK probably won`t clear until 20-22Z. Once we see VFR
conditions return, they should remain through the rest of the
evening with winds generally out of the south or southwest.
Model guidance isn`t showing it just yet, but with melting snow
today leading to plenty of low-level moisture and weakening
winds this evening, wouldn`t be surprised if we saw significant
areas of fog develop overnight tonight. If fog does impact the
terminals (30% chance at this time), it would likely be around
10-15Z Tuesday as high clouds moving in overnight could help to
hold it off until early Tuesday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy