905
FXUS63 KOAX 011641
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1041 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow chances return today, particularly for areas south of the
  Platte River. A Winter Weather Advisory will be in place from
  3AM to 6PM.

- Bitterly cold temperatures are currently forecast for Thursday
  morning, with lows below zero in most areas and wind chill
  values as cold as -15F possible.

- Expect a return of some slightly warmer air to the region on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

The forecast period starts with a mid-level shortwave trough
entering south central Nebraska and north central Kansas early this
morning. Soundings show saturation at some of the higher levels and
low levels, with a decent dry layer in between. Thus far, this has
helped limit some of the snow potential early this morning. As that
drier layer continues to saturate over the next one to three, we
will start to see snow develop across eastern Nebraska/western Iowa.
A band of snow has developed across northern Kansas, extending from
Belleville to Wheaton. This band will lift to the northeast through
the morning.

Snowfall amounts have trended down slightly with a dusting to around
an inch for areas along and north of a line from Lincoln to Harlan.
Closer to the Nebraska/Kansas state line, two to four inches of snow
will be possible through late this afternoon. A Winter Weather
Advisory will be in effect from 3AM to 6PM for several counties in
southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa.

Temperatures today and tonight will remain below normal, with highs
topping out in the 20s and lows falling into the single digits above
zero. Wind chill values tomorrow morning will be in the single
digits above and below zero.

Northwest flow settles in Tuesday and Wednesday behind the departing
trough. Although still below normal, high temperatures will give us
a brief reprieve from the recent cold. Expected highs will be in the
30s on Tuesday and range from the upper 20s to the mid-30s on
Wednesday.

A weak shortwave will drop into the region Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning, bringing a small possibility (10-20%) that northern
Nebraska and western Iowa may get clipped with a brief round of
wintry weather. Wednesday, a cold front will enter the region from
the north, bringing another shot of colder air. 850mb temps by 00Z
Thursday will range from -8C to -14C over the region. Behind the
front, cloud cover will decrease through the course of the night.
This will be one of the colder nights we`ve had in recent months,
with expected low temperatures to be in the single digits below
zero in Nebraska, and potentially as cold as 15 below zero in
western Iowa. The current forecasted low temperature for Lincoln
is -6F which would be a new record if the forecast holds. Wind
chill values will range from 0F to -15F across the region.

Dry and cold conditions are expected Thursday as the front pushes
out of the region. Temperatures will struggle into the teens in
western Iowa and the upper teens to upper 20s in eastern Nebraska.
Friday morning lows will be cold, but warmer than the previous
morning, bottoming out in the single digits above zero to the mid-
teens. The pattern shifts heading into Friday and the weekend with
high temperatures returning to the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1034 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Snowfall continues across eastern NE and western IA late this
morning. While brief periods of IFR to LIFR conditions may
continue under the heavier snow showers, conditions should
generally improve to at least MVFR at all terminals by 01/18Z.
Snow will gradually taper off and push out of the area, clear at
all TAF sites by 01/18-20Z. A deck of MVFR ceilings will linger
across KOMA and KLNK, with lower confidence in impacts at KOFK,
before improving to VFR at all terminals by 02/00-02Z. Winds
will remain out of the southwest at 8-10 kts, calming and
veering towards westerly tonight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ068-
     088>093.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ090-
     091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Wood