864
FXUS63 KOAX 220445
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1145 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The potential for flooding rainfall exists this afternoon and
  evening, near and just north of the Kansas border, where a Flood
  Watch is in effect.

- Hotter Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the 90s, and heat
  indices of 100-109.

- On-and-Off thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

     Rest of this afternoon and tonight...

Widespread clouds, ongoing thunderstorms, and convective outflow
from those storms have had an impact on temperatures today,
with 3 PM readings in the 70s to mid 80s. And even though
clouds may clear in some areas later this afternoon, there`s a
good chance that heat indices will remain at 100 or less. As a
result, the Heat Advisory has been cancelled for the remainder
of this afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorms in progress near and just north of the KS border
appear to be associated with an MCV currently moving through
south-central NE and north-central KS. The storms have produced
heavy rainfall with radar estimates of 4-5", and an earlier
observer report of 3.6" east-southeast of Beatrice. Radar data
suggest that the consolidated cold pool is steadily sagging
south, with the potential for flooding rainfall likely
remaining confined to locations near the KS border, where a
Flood Watch is in effect until 10 PM.

Thunderstorm potential overnight remains uncertain, as the
models have struggled the last several days in correctly placing
the observed thunderstorm activity. That being said, the CAMs
indicate the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms to
develop overnight along a nocturnally strengthening low-level
jet. 20-30% PoPs will be maintained in the forecast to
accommodate that potential.


     Tuesday and Wednesday...

Prominent, mid-level ridging from the lower MS Valley into the
upper Great Lakes on Tuesday will weaken by Wednesday in
response to the progression of separate short-wave troughs into
the central Plains and northern High Plains. In the low levels,
gusty south winds are expected to develop on Tuesday in response
to the deepening of a surface over SD. By Wednesday into
Wednesday night, a surface front associated with the mid-level
disturbances is forecast to move into the area.

There is some model signal that widely scattered convection
could linger in the area again on Tuesday, with associated
clouds and areas of precipitation impacting daytime heating
(like today). Assuming that scenario doesn`t occur, the
combination of decreasing clouds and the gusty winds would allow
for deeper boundary-layer mixing, with temperatures in the 90s,
and heat indices of 102-109. However, given the uncertainty in
whether storms will be in the area, the issuance of a Heat
Advisory will be deferred until confidence is higher.

Wednesday will be another hot day ahead of the approaching
front, with highs in the 90s to around 100, and heat indices
again rising into the 100-105 range. Thunderstorm chances
increase Wednesday afternoon in northeast NE, with 30-50% PoPs
areawide Wednesday night. Some severe weather and/or locally
heavy rainfall appears possible with any storms that develop.

     Thursday and Friday...

The front is forecast to linger in the area, supporting
continued rain chances (20-40% PoPs), especially on Thursday and
Thursday night. It looks like we`ll see a bit of a cooling
trend, with highs in the 80s to low 90s on Thursday, and mainly
80s on Friday.

     The weekend...

The 12z global models indicate the mid/upper-level ridge
strengthening over the central U.S., which will lead to daytime
temperatures warming back into the 90s. Mainly dry conditions
are also expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Dry conditions are anticipated overnight with overcast
conditions at FL250 blowing off of convection from northern
Kansas. Southerly winds will continue over the next 24 hours
with winds becoming breezy by mid-day Tuesday as gusts of 18-24
knots are recorded. Some low level wind shear is possible after
midnight Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Nicolaisen