851
FXUS63 KOAX 281033
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
533 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- All heat related advisories and warnings have been allowed to
  expire. Heat index values have improved and temperatures are
  cooling down.

- A few showers and storms are expected tonight/Tuesday morning,
  bringing the potential for some gusty winds.

- Cooler temperatures are expected the next couple of days with
  highs in the 80s and 90s.

- The best chance for widespread precipitation over the next
  several days will be Wednesday night through Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The forecast period begins with a broad upper ridge still extending
from the Big Horn Mountains and Black Hills to over the Great
Plains. Temperatures have cooled down a bit and heat index values
have fallen below Heat Advisory Criteria. Therefore, the Heat
Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning have been allowed to expire for
the entire CWA. With the placement of the ridge, wildfire smoke is
expected to impact the region. We are not currently expecting any
major impacts to visibility; however, some hazy skies and a faint
smell of smoke may be possible overnight into Tuesday morning.

Cloud cover increases overnight, along with our chances for a few
showers/storms. A weak shortwave trough will move into the area
later tonight bringing a chance (20%) for a few isolated
thunderstorms across our area. Any storms that are able to make it
into our area may have the potential of producing some strong wind
gusts.

Cloud cover sticks around Tuesday morning, decreasing into the
afternoon. A few models try to bring in some isolated showers/storms
in the morning, with those chances diminishing heading into the
afternoon. We will finally see some relief from the dangerous heat
Tuesday afternoon with highs only reaching up into the upper 80s to
low 90s. A few models try to bring in some chances (20%) for a few
showers/storms Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday, the ridge shifts east
slightly with high pressure over New Mexico, eastern Colorado and
western Kansas. Expect another warm day with highs once again
topping out in the mid-80s to low 90s for most areas.

Expect a pattern shift on Thursday as low pressure develops to our
west. This system will move across Nebraska during the day, tapping
into warm, gulf moisture and bringing it north into the region.
There will be chances for showers and storms during the day and into
the evening hours. Models are showing precipitable water values of
at least an inch with several showing potential for 1.5" or more.
We`re still a few days away from the event, but if this trend
continues and thunderstorms develop, we may need to monitor for
localized flooding potential.

Shower/thunderstorm chances continue into Friday, tapering off west
to east as the system moves into central Iowa and Minnesota. Enjoy
some cooler temperatures as highs stay in the 80s across the region
and lows Saturday morning fall into the low to mid-60s. The cooler
air sticks around through the weekend with highs mainly in the 80s
and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions should prevail for the duration of the TAF cycle.
An area of showers and storms near the KLNK terminal will slowly
push southeast with only lingering mid to high level cloudiness
expected at all terminals. Winds remain under 12 knots and from
the northeast, turning southeasterly by the afternoon and
largely becoming under 5 kts late in the period. A few scattered
showers and an isolated storm may develop after 21z and affect
KOMA and KLNK, but chances remain less than 10% for development
at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Castillo