543
FXUS63 KOAX 072306
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
606 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light showers are possible again on Sunday (20-30% chance).

- Wildfire smoke may reach the surface Sunday into Monday and
  lead to degraded air quality.

- Warming trend next week, with highs approaching 90 by
  Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Fairly quiet early this afternoon following the eastern
departure of the shortwave trough that brought showers, storms,
and some isolated pockets of 2-3" of rain to portions of
southeast NE and southwest IA. However, some additional
shortwave energy was making its way through the area and has led
to a few additional spotty showers with potential for some
isolated storms into this evening, but a vast majority should
stay dry.

A larger scale trough will start to dig into the midwest on
tonight into early Sunday with a cutoff low spinning along the
ND/MN/Canada border. This will drive a cold front through the
area along with a band of associated showers and isolated
storms. Model soundings do show quite a bit of low level dry air
to overcome, so rain should remain rather pretty light, but
CAMs are suggesting potential for some training of these
showers, so wherever that band sets up could see a little bit
more persistent rain, but even the more aggressive solutions
keep rainfall amounts below 0.25". In addition, guidance is
suggesting some wildfire smoke could reach the surface behind
the front on Sunday, so we could see some degraded air quality.
We`ll remain under the influence of the trough/low on Monday, so
could see some additional spotty showers (10% chance), but
higher chances will remain to our northeast closer to the actual
low. Otherwise, high temperatures Sunday and Monday will remain
mostly in the mid to upper 70s.

The trough should start to push off to the east Tuesday with
upper level ridging building in and southerly low level flow
returning. This will lead to a warming trend with widespread
highs in the 80s Tuesday and quite a few 90s by Wednesday. The
ridge flattens out over us in the later parts of the work week,
but we`ll remain warm and fairly muggy with guidance suggesting
dewpoints in the mid 60s for most. While instability will also
be increasing toward the end of the week, there currently
doesn`t look like a slam dunk severe weather setup as deep layer
shear should remain fairly week. Still, guidance suggests we`ll
have several bits of shortwave energy and various boundaries
rolling through to give us some occasional storm chances.
Finally, various severe weather machine learning algorithms do
suggest broad daily 5% chances beginning Thursday. Obviously
still a lot of details to work out, but bottom line we`ll be
warm and humid with spotty storm chances by the end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 554 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Scattered to broken low-level clouds at FL050 will
improve through the evening. Calm winds out of the south-
southwest will continue before a frontal passage in the 06-09Z
timeframe shifts winds clockwise to northwesterly. Behind the
front, winds will increase above 12 kts and gust at 18-22 kts.
Light rain showers will also be possible behind the front,
particularly in the 12-18Z timeframe. Have opted to not include
in the TAFs at this time given the low confidence in coverage of
the showers (25% chance).

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Wood