399
FXUS63 KOAX 082250
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
550 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy, dry conditions today-weekend will create very high
  fire danger during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

- Some smoke could move into the area this afternoon into
  tonight from ongoing fires in Kansas.

- Widely scattered showers are possible (15-20%) tonight into
  Wednesday morning. Isolated showers could develop (<15%
  chance) Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

- A warming trend takes shape for the weekend with some areas
  reaching the mid 80s Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

We`re seeing increasing high clouds this afternoon with
gusty winds out of the south. A weak shortwave will bring a weak
surface low across our area tonight. Significant low-level dry
air should keep most of any showers from reaching the ground,
but can`t rule out a few sprinkles or a stray shower. Winds will
be shifting to northwesterly. Despite the northwesterly winds an
expansion eastward of the warmer air from downsloping flow off
the Rockies will bring temperatures up to around 70 Wednesday
afternoon. Another weak shortwave could develop a few isolated
showers again Wednesday afternoon, as the CAMs suggest, but
again any shower activity will have to overcome significant dry
air in the lower levels.

Going toward the latter half of the week, we only see
amplification of the ridge over the Rockies expanding the
surface high eastward across the Central Plains over the
Missouri River Valley. Expect the dry air mass in place to
remain through the end of the week with increasing concern
Thursday into the weekend for very high to extreme fire
conditions. While precip chances remain very low to non-existent
through the weekend, warming temperatures and gusty afternoon
winds Thursday, Saturday and Sunday could lead to these very
high to extreme fire conditions. Saturday temperatures will be
climbing into the mid 70s, and low-to-mid 80s on Sunday.

The strong ridge is finally kicked off to the east by a strong
upper-level trough Sunday into Monday. The resultant cold front
will move across our area Sunday night bringing back seasonable,
but cooler temperatures for the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period, with winds the primary concern. Southeasterly wind gusts
will calm into the evening, with brief periods under 12 kts
overnight. A chance (15-20%) of light rain showers will move
across the area (particularly KOFK) later this evening, though
low-level dry air will likely leave virga as the most common
outcome.

Southwesterly to westerly winds at 35-40 kts at
1400-2000 ft will bring LLWS to KOMA and KLNK tonight (02-04Z)
before diminishing by 12-14Z as a front passing through quickly
backs surface winds to northwesterly. Northwesterly winds will
increase in strength during the morning, with gusts possibly
exceeding 20 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Wood