645
FXUS63 KOAX 262254
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
454 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A 15-25% chance of light precipitation (rain perhaps mixed
  with some snow) Wednesday, with little or no impacts
  expected.

- Turning colder Thursday through the weekend. Expect morning
  wind chills in the single digits above and below 0 Friday
  through Monday mornings. Highs may not get out of the 20s in
  many locations Friday through Sunday.

- A quick-moving system could bring light snow to the region
  late Friday into Saturday (20-30% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

High clouds are draped across Nebraska and southwest Iowa this
afternoon as the Polar Jet streams moisture across the region
south of a stationary front along the Nebraska/South Dakota
border. This front will drop south this evening through the
overnight hours turning our winds from south to north and then
stall out again across Kansas and Missouri. We could see some
light sprinkles or flurries in far southeast Nebraska/southwest
Iowa near the Kansas/Missouri state lines late tonight into
Wednesday, but there will be a lot of low-level dry air it will
need to overcome. Some CAMs suggest it could happen so have kept
in a slight chance.

Northerly winds bring an arctic air mass south into eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa, trending temperatures downward going
into the weekend. Highs will drop form the 40s today to the 30s
on Wednesday and Thursday. A secondary shortwave will bring
additional cold air in Friday-Saturday with high temperatures
dropping into the 20s and overnight lows in the teens to
single-digits with wind chills around zero.

The next system to watch comes with the secondary shortwave
Friday night into Saturday, potentially bringing accumulating
snowfall. Ensembles still haven`t come into agreement on
placement of a band of accumulating snow coming out of Canada
down across the northern Plains. GEFS members show a greater
chance that band sets up across eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa, while the ECMWF members show this band setting up off to
our east with only a light dusting of snow for parts of our
area. Right now it looks like even if we get the band of
accumulating snow to set up across our area, we`d probably only
see 1-4 inches due to limited low-level moisture.

Once this system exits cold air seems to linger with highs
remaining in the 20s to low 30s through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 448 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

A cold front diving north to south across our area will bring an
end to southerly winds and bring in northerly winds of ~5 knots
tonight, and 5-15 knots tomorrow at all TAF sites. The most
likely time for frontal passage can be found in the second FM
group in TAFs. There is also some signal in short term guidance
for a deck of low-MVFR/IFR stratus to develop across northeast
Nebraska (KOFK) between 10Z and 18Z. Just under half the models
have this feature, so have refrained from including in TAFs at
this time. If subsequent model runs show a stronger signal for
this feature to develop, or the development of a stratus layer
is observed, TAFs will be amended accordingly. Lastly, there is
a very low chance (10-15%) of flurries/light wintry mix at KLNK
between 09Z and 17Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Darrah