706
FXUS63 KOAX 070443
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1043 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds with mild temperatures in the low to mid 60s this
  afternoon and Friday afternoon.

- A strong cold front moves through the region on Saturday
  bringing much colder weather to the area. There is a medium
  (30-50%) chance of rain for much of the area. A changeover to
  a mix of rain and snow is likely for northern areas by
  Saturday evening. No impacts are expected.

- Very cold temperatures are to be expected on Sunday and
  Monday. Morning temperatures in the teens and low 20s with
  afternoon highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s are anticipated.
  Wind chills may be as low as the single digits during the
  morning hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

A dynamic weather pattern is beginning to take shape as we head
towards this weekend. In the meantime, largely zonal mid-level flow
keeps our weather quiet. Temperatures climb into the low to mid 60s
this afternoon and Friday afternoon. A weak disturbance is resulting
in high clouds today with a weak cold front for tomorrow, but this
has little impact outside of a wind shift from southwest to
northwest. The real weather maker takes shape for our region on
Saturday.

By Saturday, several key features will influence our weather. A
large upper-level low pressure is expected to be situated over
northern Ontario and the Hudson Bay. Wrapping around this feature
will be a series of shortwaves across the northern CONUS. One wave
will be east of our region, digging across the Ohio River Valley.
The next wave will be rapidly descending southeast out of
Saskatchewan into the northern Great Plains. Lastly, a trailing wave
will be taking shape over British Columbia. These repeated waves set
the stage for our first strong cold front of the season and
potential wintry precipitation also.

By Saturday morning, a developing surface low pressure should be
taking shape over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Rain
chances are expected near and north of the low pressure center.
Medium rain chances (30 to 50%) are expected for much of the region
through the afternoon hours as the low pressure begins to track off
to our east. Once this low pressure is kicked out of the area, a
very strong cold front quickly moves through the area. Temperatures
are expected to hold steady or fall through the afternoon and
evening behind this front in areas that hang onto cloud cover. At
this time, areas along the Missouri River Valley and to the
northeast are closest to the low track and will likely struggle to
climb out of the mid to upper 40s. Areas further south and west may
see a brief window of sunshine during the afternoon, allowing
temperatures to climb into the low to mid 50s. As the low pressure
continues to move off towards the east, the trailing wave will bring
a reinforcing push of cold air through the region. Temperatures are
expected to rapidly fall after sunset on Saturday and continue
falling into Sunday morning. This should allow for a changeover to
rain and snow by late Saturday evening into Saturday night for areas
along and north of I-80. Thankfully, warm ground preceding this
system should immediately melt any snow and prevent impacts.

By Sunday morning, the brunt of the cold will take hold.
Temperatures are likely to start in the lower 20s for much of the
region with a gusty northwest wind making it feel like the single
digits. A few lingering flurries may be possible for far southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa also. Despite clearing skies, continued
cold advection through Sunday afternoon may keep everyone in the 30s
for daytime highs. The gusty winds begin to subside by evening, but
this unfortunately sets the stage for the coldest weather seen thus
far this season. Clear skies and light winds allow the bottom to
drop out on temperatures as teens greet the region by Monday
morning. This cold morning struggles to warm through the afternoon
with lower 40s likely the best we can do for highs.

Thankfully, the weather pattern becomes further amplified heading
into next week as a large mid-level ridge overspreads the central
CONUS. This allows temperatures to quickly rebound to near and even
slightly above normal by Tuesday and Wednesday. Quiet and milder
weather in the 50s and 60s will be a welcomed sight for all.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

VFR conditions persist overnight with LLWS expected to be the
primary concern overnight. A few hours of strong WNW winds at
FL015 will be blowing at 40-45 knots while surface winds are
closer to 5-10 knots. This will be present at all three TAF
sites from about 10Z Friday morning to about 16Z. Otherwise,
surface winds will be the major player in the forecast with
breezy winds out of the northwest with gusts of 20-25 knots from
mid- day into the evening hours.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Nicolaisen