475
FXUS63 KOAX 061055
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
555 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry conditions continue through the weekend with
  highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the upper 30s and 40s.

- Warmer weather expected for the work week with highs back in
  the upper 70s to mid 80s.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday into Tuesday
  (30-60% chance). A few of these could be on the stronger side.
  Additional low-end chances (around 25%) continue through the
  rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Early morning analysis showed a cutoff low over east-central
Ontario with the upper level trough axis just east of the
forecast area. At the surface, high pressure was building in and
leading to a fairly quiet and cool night, with temperatures as
of 2 AM in the mid 40s to lower 50s. A few pieces of guidance
suggest we could see some patchy fog this morning, mainly in
southeast NE and southwest IA, but model soundings suggest winds
aloft should be just strong enough to keep it from becoming too
widespread. Otherwise it`ll be a quiet and cool day with highs
in the mid 60s to lower 70s, evening temps in the 50s, and
overnight lows mostly in the 40s, though a few spots could dip
into the upper 30s. Sunday will be similarly quiet with high
pressure still in control, but low level flow will become
southeasterly on the back side of the departing high and give us
a few more degrees (highs mostly in the 70s).

Heading into next week, guidance favors the development of
upper level ridging over the central CONUS which should lead to
some warmer weather through the week. Expect upper 70s to mid
80s by Tuesday. That said, we will have some off and on shower
and storm chances as various bits of shortwave energy slide
through the ridging, which could affect temperatures on a given
day.

The first chances will arrive late Sunday night into early
Monday as a shortwave currently over NV will start to approach
the area with a surface low pushing through SD. This will induce
strengthening low level moisture transport that will gradually
edge into the area through the day with a warm front pushing
northeast. By Monday afternoon/evening, guidance is in decent
agreement that we`ll have a plume of mid 50s to lower 60s
dewpoints sitting across central into eastern NE with 1000-2000
J/kg of MUCAPE, certainly enough for some thunderstorm
development as moisture transport starts to point more directly
into our area and the shortwave pushes through. In addition,
deep layer shear around 30 kts with decent low level hodograph
curvature could be just enough to yield a few stronger storms to
an isolated severe storm. Still some details to work out with
potential for early morning precip/cloud cover and timing of the
shortwave, but Monday is worth keeping a bit of an eye on. For
what it`s worth, various machine learning severe weather
algorithms suggest a 5-15% chance of severe weather.

This precip should exit by mid-day Tuesday with most guidance
favoring a dry Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Additional bits
of shortwave energy then look to pass through Thursday into next
weekend. Unfortunately, there is quite a bit of model spread on
timing and strength of these various systems, so forecast
confidence is fairly low. For now, have off and on 20-30%
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

VFR conditions favored through the period with passing clouds
around 5000-7000 ft. Can`t completely rule out some patchy fog
early in the period, but so far haven`t seen any development and
guidance continues to indicated little to no development.
Otherwise winds will remain northerly to northwesterly today
with speeds under 10 kts, followed by a switch to northeasterly
to easterly this evening and overnight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA