417
FXUS63 KOAX 042308
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
508 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect some slick roads Saturday into early Sunday as some
  snow moves through. The highest potential for at least 1" will
  be northeast of a Norfolk to Omaha line (40-70% chance).

- High temperatures over the next week will generally be in the
  30s and 40s, but Sunday will be colder, with highs in the
  teens to mid 20s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Early afternoon analysis showed an upper level trough axis
passing through the area while surface high pressure was sitting
over IA/IL/MO. In addition, a surface warm front was
approaching from the west and will give us relief from the cold,
with the mid 30s-40s behind it progged to move into the
forecast area on Friday. A few pieces of short term guidance
also suggest we could see some patchy fog develop along the
front as it pushes through late tonight/early Friday. By late
morning/early afternoon Friday, some weak shortwave energy will
be passing by to our north with associated snow falling across
SD/MN. Most guidance suggests any accumulation will stay to our
north, though a few pieces of short term guidance show some
showery precip near a cold front progged to pass through Friday
afternoon. If these develop, could see some brief snow or even
sleet showers given the convective nature depicted by various
CAMs. However, model soundings don`t show much in the way of
instability and saturated layers are fairly shallow, so
confidence in them occurring is on the lower side (5-10%
chance).

Attention then turns to snow chances Saturday into early
Sunday. Some shortwave energy currently over the Gulf of Alaska
will push toward the Rockies by Saturday morning while a surface
low spins up over eastern WY and eventually pushes through NE
and KS Saturday afternoon/evening. Guidance is in pretty good
agreement that a band of frontogenesis and snow sets up
somewhere over SD/NE/IA, though still some differences in exact
track with EPS members generally a little farther northeast than
other guidance. As it stands, consensus gives areas northeast
of a Norfolk to Omaha line about a 40-70% chance of at least 1".
The heaviest snow would likely fall Saturday afternoon into the
evening and come to an end by sunrise on Sunday. Expect some
slick spots in these areas, as well as potential for some
reduced visibility with wind gusts of 20-25 mph at times.

Farther south, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer with
guidance good warm air advection across southeast NE into
southwest IA. As a result, model soundings show fairly deep low
level saturation with lack of in-cloud ice at times, suggesting
potential for some drizzle. With surface temperatures hovering
right around freezing, some ice accumulation could occur, but
still lots of smaller scale details to work out and just 1
degree could make a pretty big difference, so confidence in this
is quite low.

We`ll be quite cold again behind the precip, with highs on
Sunday in the teens to mid 20s as surface high pressure builds
in. Lows that night will be a little more questionable as the
high pushes east and southerly flow/warm air advection return.
Currently have lows in single digits above and below 0, coolest
over west-central IA, but if that warm air advection ramps up
quicker and we get some resulting cloud cover, we could end up
several degrees warmer. We`ll then trend warmer to start next
week with highs in the upper 20s and 30s Monday followed by
upper 30s and 40s Tuesday. Guidance is in decent agreement that
another system tracks through the Plains sometime Tuesday night
or Wednesday, though still lots of spread on timing and track.
For now, have a 15-20% chance of precip (rain and snow), but
overall confidence is pretty low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 502 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

The MVFR ceilings over OFK have eroded this evening. The
remaining MVFR ceilings are expected to remain west of OMA and
LNK, but the potential for a brief reduction in ceilings will
continued to be monitored over the next few hours. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will be predominant. Winds are southerly this
evening with speeds between 10 to 15 kts. Winds speeds will
gradually decrease this evening. LLWS is anticipated early
tonight as a strong southwesterly low-level jet overspreads the
weakening southerly winds at the surface. LNK and OMA are most
likely to see impacts with OFK remaining just below LLWS
criteria. By early morning, any LLWS should cease. Winds become
more westerly heading into Friday afternoon as a frontal system
begins to move into the region.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Chehak