277
FXUS63 KOAX 081716
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1116 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- This afternoon through Saturday will have periods of rain
  (70-90+% chance) for most everyone in the area, with total
  rain amounts of 0.25" to 0.75" being most common.

- Near to above-normal high temperatures in the 50s to low 60s
  are expected through the first half of the upcoming week.

- Our next chance for rain (20-30%) will be on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

High clouds are streaming into eastern Nebraska and southwest
Iowa this morning as we see increasing southerly flow ahead of
the approaching trough currently over the Four-Corners region of
the Southwest. This approaching system is currently producing
rain across Kansas and will bring rain up into our area today.
Portions of Jefferson and Saline County may see some rain this
morning, but most of our area won`t see rain until late this
afternoon or this evening.

Eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa remain north of the warm
front today, with winds generally out of the east at the
surface. This afternoon into this evening we`ll see a
strengthening low-level jet push north into our area, above the
warm front providing lift and moisture for showers. As we remain
north of the warm-sector into the evening, the environment will
remain stable so no thunderstorms are expected.

The surface low will track through central and northeast
Nebraska on Saturday, keeping showers around through the
morning, and lifting them into northeast Nebraska Saturday
afternoon. Showers will exit the area Saturday evening as the
surface low shifts off to the east.

Winds shift to westerly behind this system meaning temperatures
really won`t drop that much behind the low. Highs will be
seasonable in the 50s on Sunday. A weak ridge will move through
early next week leading to a stretch of dry weather with high
temperatures in the 50s to low 60s through Tuesday. The next
system will arrive on Wednesday bringing back more chances for
rain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Increasing cloud cover and steadily lowering ceilings will be
the main story of this forecast. IFR ceilings will be likely at
KOFK and KLNK after 12Z. IFR ceilings at KOMA are more uncertain
at this time, so have opted to keep MVFR (fuel-alternate) for
now to finish off the TAF forecast period. Developing rain
showers may also impact TAF sites well before they become a
prevailing group in the TAFs. The earliest rain showers will
likely arrive sometime between 00Z and 06Z, though
probabilities for rain at any given time during this timeframe
will be under 50 percent. Any rain shower moving through a TAF
site will have the potential to reduce visibilities to 5-6
miles.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Darrah