537
FXUS63 KOAX 242335
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
535 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A band of flurries will traverse northeast Nebraska tonight
  from midnight to 4 AM, with no travel impacts expected.

- Decreasing chances (10-20%) of rain and snow next Wednesday,
  with little or no impacts expected.

- Much colder conditions are incoming for this weekend, where
  highs may not reach above-freezing for a good chunk of the
  area Friday on.

- Watching a quick-moving system that could bring snow (around
  20% chance) late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a messy zonal mid/upper
flow pattern with most of the action extending northeastward from
the Four Corners region towards the Northern Great Plains.
Drilling down to the local area, a recent surface analysis shows
the cold front that passed through the area over the last 24
hours draped to the south and east of the area, with a much
cooler airmass moving in alongside increasing low cloud cover.
Well behind the front in the clouds and increasing vertical
profiles, radar returns are assembling in southwest South Dakota
into northeast Nebraska forced by lift rooted in the 600/700mb
layers. As this forcing approaches, we`ll see cooling
temperatures and as a result, we`ll have a ragged line of
flurries/light snow moving through northeast Nebraska extending
into South Dakota from midnight through around 4 AM. No impacts
or accumulations are expected, but it is still worth noting.

Monday and Beyond:

As the much cooler airmass takes further hold of the area, highs
will take a significant dip with highs Monday expected to peak in
the 30s alongside gusty winds of 20-30 mph. Our recent warmth will
work against us and make those winds feel much colder, with apparent
temperatures are going to peak largely in the 20s during the day.
Dry weather will continue with warmer temperatures Tuesday in the
40s, with most of the action precipitation-wise arriving Wednesday
onward.

By Wednesday, we`ll see our zonal flow in the mid/upper levels pivot
in favor of northwesterly flow as a leeside surface system takes
shape across the OK/TX, and rapidly deepens as it arrives across the
Tennessee Valley region Thursday. We`ll find ourselves on the colder
and drier side of the precipitation shield directly north of
the surface system, with less and less precipitation being
depicted by both the GFS and ECMWF models with each update. Both
12z deterministic runs have moved any accumulation out of the
forecast area (though the 12z ensembles each have a handful of
snow-makers for Omaha and Lincoln). Long story short, impactful
snow is becoming less likely as we go forward and as models
favor a more southern trend with the system. That deepening
system will usher in particularly strong high pressure to the
area as highs tumble further and further going into the weekend
in wake of the deepening system to the east.

An arm of positive vorticity advection will try to shoot through the
area late Friday into Saturday and could bring good snow chances
into the area, with the limiting factor being that the track on the
snow band will have more potential to move north and south than most
systems, with plenty of potential to miss the area. If you`re
traveling out of the area for Thanksgiving and the following
weekend, be ready to bundle up and keep an eye on where these
systems shift, as somewhere close by may be dealing with travel
impacts and wintry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Breezy winds out of the southeast will continue overnight with
gusts up to 25 knots at times. Already MVFR cigs are building
into the western half of the area and should continue to build
east through this evening. Generally expect cigs to remain above
FL010 but some areas may flirt with that and the associated IFR
conditions.

Skies will clear around daybreak Sunday morning as southeasterly
winds continue.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen