179
FXUS63 KOAX 152132
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
332 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect a cooler Sunday, with above normal temperatures
  rounding out the weekend.

- 30-50% chance of rain Monday, alongside breezy winds out of
  the southeast gusting to 25-35 mph.

- Another storm system will move into the region Thursday
  through Friday, bringing a 20-40% chance for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a deep low off the
Baja/California coast spinning underneath ridging that spills
northwesterly flow across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS.
Taking a look at the surface, most of the primary features are
associated with the shortwave pushing through the Great Lakes
region, trailing the cold front that pushed through the local area
yesterday with a secondary weak confluence zone extending from
southwest Iowa west-northwest through Nebraska before connecting to
a surface low in northeast Wyoming. Despite the northerly winds,
ample sunshine has let temperatures climb will into the 60s for most
of the area while far southwest Iowa and areas of southeast Nebraska
reach into the lower 70s. Overnight, surface high pressure is
expected to migrate from Montana to northern Iowa and Minnesota,
slowing wind speeds and ramping up radiative cooling to the point
that we may see some areas of valley fog.

Increased cloud cover moving into the area tomorrow morning will
stunt temperatures initially, with highs only expected to top
out in the upper 50s to just over 60. Winds should be calmer
tomorrow due to limited mixing, staying generally out of the
southeast for another dry day to round out the weekend.

Monday and Beyond:

Monday tries to break up our dry weather, with the aforementioned
California low ejecting northeastward across the Colorado River
Valley before dumping out into the Central/Northern Great Plains.
The system will be at its deepest when it initially pushes into the
lee of the Rocky Mountain Front Range, weakening as it progresses
through the forecast area. Monitoring the system`s structure, model
consensus points to it not being very vertically stacked as it
passes, with the the low-level and mid-level lows being farther
north compared to the surface low that tracks right through the
middle of the forecast area. Limited cold air will be drawn into
eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa, leaving us with nearly zero
chance to see snowfall. Rainfall, on the other hand, will begin to
develop late Monday morning in a strong warm air advective regime,
that lingers into the overnight hours. Any rain that we do end up
having is expected to be extremely light, owing mostly to an
extremely dry layer that we will have at the surface.
Persistent precipitation will have to moisten the lower levels,
with model soundings hinting that many locations may have to
wait until Monday evening before rainfall triumphs over the
dryness. Those that do see measurable rainfall should only see
less than 0.1", not even making a dent in our recent dry
conditions. Models are certain that it`ll be breezy, with gusts
of 25 to 35 mph expected across the forecast area.

Tuesday we`ll be squarely behind the cold front in the wake of the
weak Monday weather system, with an outside chance that we could see
a sprinkle or two. Boundary layer lapse rates have a very small
amount of instability at its top, but the shallow depth is keeping
any mentions of rain out of the forecast for now. Wednesday through
the remainder of the forecast look to be more active, bringing rain
chances to the area as a trough pivots through the Intermountain
West Wednesday, bringing precipitation chances back to the
forecast Thursday and Friday. We may get lucky initially with
having rain as the primary precipitation type, but cooler air on
the backside of the system has more and more ensemble members
bringing snow to Omaha going into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1107 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

TAFs continue to stay on track this morning, with the main
addition to this round being a slight bump up in wind speeds at
all three sites. Gusts near 20 kts are expected to sporadically
occur through 21/22z before weaker winds move in this evening,
dropping further to below 5 kts overnight. While they decrease
in speed, a gradual wind shift will take place overnight, ending
up out of the southeast by mid-morning tomorrow. A bank of
clouds will also be glancing the KOMA/KOFK terminals beginning
12z tomorrow, bringing slightly lower clouds that should stay
FEW/SCT at FL030-FL080. We`re watching for model/forecast
trends for valley fog early tomorrow morning, but confidence is
not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen