778
FXUS63 KOAX 052323
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
623 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off showers and isolated storms will continue into
  Saturday, with the highest chances being Saturday morning
  (50-70%). Rainfall amounts around 0.10" to 0.25".

- High temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s through early
  next week. Warming into the mid to upper 80s by the middle to
  later parts of the week.

- Higher potential for storms by the end of next week, but still
  lots of details to work out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Main story for the rest of today and heading into the weekend
will be continued on and off precip chances as several bits of
shortwave energy slide through the area. Instability will be
pretty limited, but non-zero, so could see a few rumbles of
thunder at times, but these should generally be pretty isolated.
In general, expect a 20- 30% chance for most of the time
through Saturday, with a peak around 50-70% Saturday morning as
a stronger wave moves through. While it`s pretty likely you`ll
see rain at some point between now and then, amounts will be
very limited (around 0.10" to 0.25") for most. Otherwise,
temperatures will remain on the cool side with the clouds and
precip, with highs in the 70s and then possibly a few 80s
Saturday as clouds start to exit.

By Saturday night, a larger scale trough will start to build
into the midwest with a cutoff low developing just north of the
ND/Canada border. This will swing a surface cold front through
the area and possibly some low end precip chances into northeast
NE, but moisture availability ahead of the front will be quite
low, so shouldn`t amount to much. We`ll remain under the
influence of the trough/cyclonic flow through at least Monday,
so can`t completely rule out a few spotty sprinkles/light
showers, but again, moisture will be limited. This will also
keep temperatures on the cooler side with highs remaining in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will start
building in Tuesday which will give us a break in the precip
chances and some warmer weather. Widespread 80s will return
Tuesday and then mid to upper 80s, possibly 90 on Wednesday and
Thursday. Instability should also be on the increase with signs
pointing toward another wave/front moving through sometime
Thursday or Friday. If this pans out, this could be our next
severe weather risk, but still lots of details on system timing
and strength to work out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail this evening with
scattered light rain showers. However, patchy MVFR conditions
will be possible in heavier showers that do form. Shower
coverage will taper off this evening before increasing again
later in the overnight period. A deck of MVFR ceilings will push
into central Nebraska overnight, likely impacting KLNK with
lower confidence in impacts at KOMA. Shower coverage will
decrease again into Friday afternoon. Winds will remain light
through the period and from the southeast this evening before
becoming variable overnight and eventually north- northeasterly
tomorrow morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Wood