274
FXUS63 KOAX 240522
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1122 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One last warm day today with highs in the upper 50s to low
  60s.

- Rain gradually overspreads the area late tonight (20 to 40%
  chance) into much of Monday (50 to 70%).

- Windy conditions expected Tuesday with gusts of 35 to 40 mph.
  Isolated gusts up to 45 to 50 mph are not out of the question
  and may lead to fire weather concerns.

- Continue to monitor the forecast for the latest updates
  concerning winter weather potential from Thanksgiving into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

RAP 20z objective analysis shows the H5 closed low over the Four
Corners region, while yesterday`s shortwave trof has now moved into
the northeast US. While the bulk of the sfc high pressure is over
far eastern Kansas and Missouri, quiet conditions are still observed
this afternoon. METARs reported temperatures in the upper 50s to low
60s across the forecast area under mostly sunny skies.

The pleasant and quiet weather will continue this afternoon and
early evening with most seeing highs in the upper 50s to low 60s and
southerly winds. By late this evening and tonight, the 564dam low
will eject northeast toward the Central Plains. Q-vector convergence
and implied lift overspreads much of the area in tandem with an H8
LLJ, resulting in rain entering the forecast area. Latest CAM suite
shows an arcing band of precip entering our far southwest and
western areas after 04z tonight, eventually overspreading the area
by 12z Monday morning. PoPs of 20 to 40% were maintained for this
forecast package from 04z to 10z, while widespread 50 to 70% PoPs
are forecast by 12z. PoPs gradually taper off from west to east
throughout the day, exiting the forecast area by Monday
evening. Rainfall amounts remain light with storm total QPF at a
few hundredths to around 0.15 inches.

Will also need to keep an eye on fog development late this evening
and overnight. Model guidance shows fog advecting from northern
Missouri into portions of central Iowa, eventually entering western
Iowa and far eastern Nebraska. However, uncertainty exists on how
likely fog would last given that the incoming rainfall may help mix
it out. For now, have only added mentions of patchy fog in these
areas after 03z. Low temperatures for tonight were also raised by a
degree or two from NBM guidance given the overcast skies expected.
Most areas will see lows in the low to mid 40s, while highs Monday
will only warm to the low to mid 50s. Lows Monday night cool to the
mid 30s across northeast Nebraska, while low 40s are anticipated for
the rest of the area.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

An H5 shortwave trof just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest is
progged to amplify and deepen as it moves southeast toward the
Northern Plains Tuesday morning. The shortwave will eventually
induce a sfc low over eastern Wyoming, tracking along the South
Dakota/Nebraska border. However, the best H7-H5 Q-vector convergence
and implied lift is observed over the Dakotas as is moisture
transport originating from the Pacific and remnants of Monday`s
system. The bulk of deterministic and ensemble guidance keeps the
band of precip well north of the forecast area, but a few showers
could clip far northeast Nebraska. NBM extended shows 15% PoPs
barely clipping far northern Knox County at this time. Any potential
precip from this wave would most likely be rain initially, but a
change over to light snow is not out of the question depending on
how soon the strong punch of cold air at H8 moves in. This should
drop high temperatures to the mid 40s to low 50s.

The primary concern on Tuesday continues to be strong northwesterly
winds. A strong, 50 to 60 kt LLJ coupled with the aforementioned
H8 cold air advection should lead to strong subsidence just
behind the main sfc cold front as it pushes through the forecast
area. The strong subsidence should help drive down at least
some of this strong momentum to the sfc, resulting in the strong
winds. Widespread gusts of 35 to 40 mph are expected across
eastern Nebraska, with slightly lower gusts across western Iowa
by late Tuesday morning. The majority of GEFS and EPS members
suggest gusts of 35 to 45 mph across the area, while a
considerable amount of EPS members show 45 to 55 mph gusts over
northeast Nebraska. Will need to keep an eye on trends and
assess needs for wind and fire weather headlines (particularly
areas that received little to no wetting precip from Monday).

Winds gradually subside by Wednesday as sfc high pressure finally
moves into the area. Aside from some clouds and cooler highs (mid
30s across northeast Nebraska to low 40s near the Nebraska/Kansas
border), quiet conditions are expected for Wednesday and Thursday.

Beyond Thursday, model solutions show a shortwave trof over the
Pacific NW ejecting southeast, modifying the H5 pattern. Lots
of subtle differences are still seen amongst guidance, but
general consensus appears to show zonal to southwesterly flow
across the Central Plains allowing subtle waves to ride that
flow. Latest ensemble suite continues to develop a band of snow
somewhere across the Northern Plains on Friday, with the
different members shifting the band either well north, south, or
right over our forecast area. By Saturday, ensemble guidance
shows another potential round of precip but with each member
having its own spatial differences, while deterministic guidance
shows widespread areas of the Central and Northern Plains with
precip. NBM extended currently has 15 to 25% PoPs Friday evening
across mainly western Iowa and along the Missouri River Valley,
while Saturday widespread 30 to 50% PoPs are seen across much
of the forecast area, most likely due to the wide variance seen
in model placement of precipitation. With lots of uncertainty
regarding precip timing, type, and placement during this holiday
travel period, make sure to keep up to date with the forecast
for the latest updates and information.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1110 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

The fog over northern Missouri and western Iowa has remained
east of OMA this evening. Low ceilings, rain showers, and fog
continue to slowly lift northeast from Kansas. The progression
of these features has been a bit slower than anticipated. Over
the next couple hours, ceilings will gradually fall. From
southwest to northeast, MVFR ceilings and light fog is
anticipated to begin to cause impacts between 09-10Z this
morning at LNK and OFK initially. OMA follows a short time
later. Ceilings will continue to quickly fall to IFR after
this. IFR ceilings may arrive sooner than forecast, but upstream
observations are mixed between MVFR and IFR conditions. Rain
showers and patchy fog will accompany the IFR ceilings with
visibility reductions likely as a result. That said, fluctuating
visibility is anticipated at times. IFR ceilings are expected
to remain around 700 ft. A brief reduction to below 500 ft could
develop, but confidence is low and the majority of guidance
remains above this threshold. Rain showers and fog will
dissipate or exit the area by mid-morning, around 15Z. IFR
ceilings are expected to remain through the afternoon. Winds
will be light and southerly for all terminals during this TAF
period. Trends will continue to be monitored as this system
progresses into the region.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Chehak