992
FXUS63 KOAX 040447
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1147 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall activity will gradually end throughout the day, with
  some lingering showers into the evening hours

- Temperatures will be much cooler this afternoon compared to
  the last few days, with afternoon readings only maxing out in
  the lower to middle 60s.

- Drier and warmer conditions are expected for Wednesday, with
  rain chances returning for Thursday through Saturday (20-50%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Regional radar mosaic reveals scattered showers across Eastern
Nebraska and southwestern Iowa this afternoon. These showers are
in addition to rainfall that occurred last night across the
forecast area that dropped some decent amount across mainly
Northeast Nebraska where areas saw upwards of 1-2". Southeastern
NE was not so lucky last night as accumulations were generally
around a few tenths of an inch, but these areas have caught up
with the additional morning and early afternoon rainfall. Precip
activity will be on the downtrend through the remainder of
today with models indicating it should be clear of our area by
early this evening. With vastly different atmospheric setup
compared to what we had seen yesterday and this past weekend,
temperature this afternoon will be noticeably cooler, a good
25-30 degrees cooler, with afternoon readings only maxing out in
generally in the lower to middle 60s. With moisture abound
across the region, it would not be surprising to see some fog
development into the early morning hours Wednesday, resulting in
some hazardous travel conditions in certain spots.

.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

Wednesday looks to be a much more tranquil day as the broader
atmospheric pattern becomes more zonal. Rising 500mb height
anomalies to near climatological normal levels will translate to
warmer day-to-day temperatures, with highs Wednesday afternoon
ranging mostly in the middle 70s. It should be quite the nice
day to get outside as dewpoints will only be in the upper 40s
and lower 50s, making conditions feel fairly pleasant. There
will still be a decent amount of clouds around, but rainfall is
not in the forecast for this timeframe.

.THURSDAY...

Diffluence in the mid-levels, combined with upper-jet
influenced ascent and modest moister profiles will help
increase the chances for shower and thunderstorms once again on
Thursday. Right now, dynamics do not look overly impressive to
produce severe weather, and there are no other indications
(either from the SPC or machine learning guidance) to reflect
any enhanced potential for strong thunderstorms. Also, with the
lack of a flash point for convection (i.e. a frontal boundary)
any activity will likely be more spotty in nature. MaxTs look a
little cooler compared to day prior, with values ranging from
the upper 60s to mid 70s.

.FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

Friday and Saturday both look like they will continue the
active weather streak as potentially multiple troughs traverse
the Northern and Central Plains. Much like Thursday, machine
learning guidance is not picking up any severe threat at this
time, but with still being several days between now and the end
of the week, the forecast can certainly change. Temperatures
will max out around 80 degrees or so on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Patchy fog, becoming dense at times, will be the primary concern
tonight. Patchy areas of MVFR to LIFR conditions will be
possible. The highest confidence in fog tonight with be at KOMA,
though amendments will be made as needed given the low
confidence in how widespread fog will be. Otherwise, winds will
be calm and out of the northwest before veering to northeasterly
though the late morning. Skies will be mostly clear with a
scattered cloud deck at FL060-080 and a few upper- level clouds.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RW
AVIATION...Wood