110
FXUS63 KOAX 232329
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
529 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog development is likely tonight across northeast Nebraska
  into the central part of the state, especially after 3 AM.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the
  weekend.

- A cold front Sunday afternoon will begin to usher a polar
  airmass into the region, dropping high temps below normal for
  next week into the 30s and lows into the 10s/low 20s.

- Small chance (20-30%) of rain and snow next Wednesday, but
  little or no impacts expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon showcases a broad plum of
mid/upper level moisture overspreading the Central and Northern
Great Plains, where a low-amplitude ridge is centered while troughs
buttress each side along the east and west coasts. While mid/upper
level moisture is on the increase, surface moisture has been scoured
out through most of the CONUS, with only a surface warm front
adorning the area while most of the eastern CONUS has surface high
pressure in place. Highs are occurring right now with that potent
warm front allowing highs to overachieve despite increasing high
clouds, with the temps in the 50s to low-60s expected to cool
overnight into the upper 30s to near 30 degrees in northeast
Nebraska while surface moisture advection continues south of
the warm front. Even with the current dewpoints, we`ll be easily
able to cool past crossover temperatures in favor of fog
development after . As of right now, northeast Nebraska into
central Nebraska is where the thickest fog will likely be, and
it could reach as far east the NE/IA border.

Tomorrow morning, the fog may take its time before clearing and
thickening cloud cover will be in place, with more tepid highs
forecast for the afternoon in the upper 40s to low 50s. One of the
surface lows over High Plains will push its way east of the area,
dragging a cold front through. Well behind the front, will be
steeper lapse rates in the boundary layer, where some convectively-
driven light precipitation and potentially flurries developing
for a very short period across northeast Nebraska 9 PM to
midnight. No meaningful accumulations are expected and the
chances for those flurries/light precipitation currently sit at
about 10% but are increasing.

Monday and Beyond:

By the time Monday rolls around, we`ll have left the above-average
temperatures in the rear-view mirror as highs in the 30s and 40s
settle in for the foreseeable future. The jet stream will be
migrating southward while staying largely zonal with the next chance
for any meaningful precipitation coming Wednesday. Models
continue to be split on how much moisture makes its way to the
area, as a surface low deepens across OK and ejects
northeastward. The most dynamic deepening and overall
intensification of the system should occur across the Mid-
Mississippi valley, and as of right now leaves the more potent
ingredients of lift well to the south and east. With that being
said, we are still carrying 15-30% chances for a rain/snow mix
over the course of the day and into early Thursday. After that,
our coolest airmass will plunge into the NE/IA region, and lows
could find their way into the mid-teens.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Low-level wind shear develops in southeast Nebraska around 9pm
this evening at FL014 with southerly winds blowing at nearly 40
knots. This will impact KOMA and KLNK through about 3am.

Visibility will slip with the development of fog across the
northwestern portions of the area with biggest impacts expected
at KOFK with IFR conditions forecast by daybreak through about
11am. MVFR visibility is forecast at KLNK. Fog forecasts are
fickle and the fog may not develop at all or on the other end of
the spectrum, it could end up covering more real estate and end
up denser than forecast.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen