596
FXUS63 KOAX 020250
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
950 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Calm conditions expected today with highs in the upper 80s.

- Scattered storms are possible (35% chance) in northeast NE
  both Wednesday morning and evening. Widespread severe weather
  is not expected, though an isolated strong wind gust or small
  hail will be possible.

- Low end storm chances continue Thursday (~20%) south of I-80,
  before peaking Friday (40-65%) evening areawide. Scattered
  showers and storm chances continue Saturday through Monday
  (20-45% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Short Term (Today through Thursday)

The large-scale mid- to upper-level pattern this afternoon features
a ridge centered over the Four Corners region and a trough anchored
over Ontario, placing our area beneath predominantly northwesterly
flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure remains in control,
delivering a calm and clear day with highs expected to top out in
the upper 80s.

Early Wednesday morning, a shortwave disturbance and associated
vorticity maxima will track around the ridge and across the northern
Plains, bringing our next chance for precipitation. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across northeast
Nebraska, with PoPs currently ranging from 20-35%. While forcing for
ascent will be somewhat limited, elevated instability (MUCAPE up to
1000 J/kg) and modest bulk shear (25-30 kts) could support a strong
storm or two. The better severe threat is expected to remain north
and east of the area where the better shear resides, though an
isolated severe wind gust (up to 60 mph) or hail (up to 1") can`t be
ruled out with any stronger storms that do develop. Convection
should taper off by late morning, followed by clearing skies and
afternoon highs rising into the upper 80s to low 90s.

Another chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms arrives late
Wednesday afternoon into the evening as another vorticity maxima
slides through eastern SD. Most of the favorable instability and
forcing for ascent is expected to remain north of the NE-SD border,
but a small southward shift would bring this into extreme northeast
NE. We could also see brief, weak funnel clouds with any storms that
do develop in this area given the favorable 0-3 km CAPE and surface
vorticity. These funnel clouds rarely reach the ground, but could
produce 50+ mph winds in the rare cases when they do. However, the
better chances appear again just north of the NE/SD border. The SPC
currently includes extreme northeast NE in a marginal risk (level 1
of 5) for severe weather on Wednesday.

Thursday will feature continued warm conditions with highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Skies will start off mostly clear, with cloud
cover increasing through the afternoon and evening as another
shortwave approaches the region. This feature will also tighten the
pressure gradient, resulting in southerly winds gusting up at 20-25
mph. A few light showers (15-25% PoPs) may develop near the NE-KS
border late Thursday in response to a weak disturbance moving into
the southern Plains, though the better forcing and precipitation
coverage will likely remain to our south.

Long Term (Friday and Beyond)

As previously mentioned, a more potent shortwave disturbance is
expected to round the ridge and move into the region toward the end
of the work week, effectively flattening the ridge in place. This
feature is also anticipated to spin up a surface low over the
western Dakotas, which will then progress eastward. An associated
frontal boundary is expected to extend south of the low. Ahead of
this system, high temperatures on Independence Day will climb into
the upper 80s to low 90s, accompanied by gusty southerly winds (25-
30+ mph) as the pressure gradient tightens.

The best chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms this
week arrives Friday evening into early Saturday as the
aforementioned front encounters the warm, moist, and unstable
airmass in place. PoPs currently peak at 40-65% during this period.
As far as severe weather is concerned, there is some uncertainty
regarding whether the stronger forcing will align with peak diurnal
heating. Additionally, bulk shear values are expected to remain
somewhat marginal at 20-25 kts. Regardless, this will be a timeframe
to monitor closely if you have outdoor plans for the holiday.
Locally heavy rainfall is also possible, with the WPC placing much
of the area in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive
rainfall. This is supported by PWAT values of 1.5-2.0 (above the
90th percentile for sounding climatology in early July) and a warm
cloud depth approaching 3 km.

Off-and-on rain chances continue through the weekend (PoPs 20-45%)
as the flattened ridge leaves us in broadly zonal flow, allowing a
series of weak disturbances to pass through. The aforementioned
front is expected to stall and meander near the area, drifting north
and south. GEFS and ECMWF ensemble-based machine learning guidance
highlights the region with a 5-15% probability for severe weather
from Friday through Sunday. No day stands our as a clear candidate
for widespread severe weather, but a stronger storm here and there
remains possible with the details to be worked out as it approaches.

Temperatures through the extended period are expected to remain near
climatological normals for early July, with highs in the 80s to low
90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 946 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Scattered thunderstorms are possible early Wednesday morning and
the 30% chance of them affecting the KOFK area has shifted
farther south. I would put that 30% chance at KOMA (14Z) with
lesser chances at KOFK (9Z) and KLNK (14Z). Otherwise, expect
VFR conditions with southerly winds at 5-15 knots.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Nicolaisen