628
FXUS63 KOAX 250446
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1146 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog redevelopment will be possible across portions of the
  region tonight/early Saturday morning.

- Heat settles in over the region with temperatures approaching
  the mid-90s to low 100s. Heat related concerns are expected
  through at least Sunday with Monday also looking hot.

- There is a small chance of a few thunderstorms Sunday
  night/Monday morning, which could impact Monday temperatures.

- Slightly cooler temperatures return to the forecast Tuesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

The forecast period begins with an upper ridge over Montana and
Wyoming and northwest flow over the Great Plains. Fog has developed
to our east, across portions of south central Iowa and northern
Missouri. The big question will be how this impacts the Omaha CWA.
Stratus has held on longer than expected this evening toward Norfolk
and south to Columbus and Lincoln. As long as the stratus sticks
around, this will help hinder fog development. We have had some
clearing south toward Beatrice, Hebron and York. With light
southeasterly winds and clear skies, we are looking at the potential
for fog development later this evening/tonight. Some patchy dense
fog may be possible. To the east of our area, we are seeing fog
development toward south central Iowa and northern Missouri. Winds
are expected to shift, becoming more southerly as we head further
into the overnight hours which could also limit potential westward
spread of fog into the eastern portion of our CWA.

Heading into the weekend, the ridge will shift east, over the Black
Hills by Saturday morning and across the Dakotas and Nebraska by
Saturday evening. Expect Saturday highs to reach into the mid-90s to
around 104. Heat index values will be at or above 105 degrees for
most areas. Sunday temperatures will be in the mid-90s to low 100s
for highs. Sunday and Monday morning lows will not recover well and
will be in the mid to upper 70s each morning with heat index values
in the mid-70s.

A Heat Advisory remains in place for Monona County in Iowa and
several counties across eastern Nebraska from noon Saturday through
10pm Monday. Expect heat index values to reach as high as 109 during
the afternoon hours and the mid to upper 70s overnight. Knox, Cedar,
Antelope and Pierce counties in northeastern Nebraska can expect
afternoon heat index values to reach or exceed 110 degrees with
little recovery overnight. Therefore, they have been upgraded to an
Extreme Heat Warning which will be in effect from noon Saturday to
7am Monday. The Extreme Heat Watch for Douglas and Sarpy counties in
Nebraska and most of our western Iowa counties will likely need to
be upgraded to a warning for Sunday and possibly Monday, with a
westward expansion not out of the question.

A shortwave trough is expected drop into eastern Nebraska/western
Iowa Sunday evening, bringing a chance of a few areas getting
clipped with an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Should any storms
be able to develop, they could become strong to marginally severe
with large hail and damaging winds being the main concerns. Should
areas receive any storms, this could help cool things down a little
bit overnight, allowing temperatures to recover slightly. This would
likely have an impact on current forecasted temperatures for Monday.

Beginning Tuesday, we start to see a shift in the pattern with a few
disturbances trying to move across the Great Plains. This will give
us a few isolated chances for showers or storms. The more notable
change will be for some slightly cooler, although still hot
temperatures. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the low to
mid-90s each day while lows will range from the upper 60s to low
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

MVFR stratus persists at all three TAF sites early this
evening. Low level winds are veering, allowing for better warm
air advection and mixing, thus the stratus depth is decreasing.
There is a 70% probability or greater that the stratus
dissipates at KLNK and KOFK between 25/01-02Z. Currently the
possibility of MVFR status dissipating at KOMA is between about
40% by 25/02z. Regardless, short-term forecast models bringing
MVFR then IFR stratus back into the KLNK and KOMA by 06-08z,
and KOFK between 09-10z. Where stratus doesn`t develop, IFR or
LIFR fog will develop. At best, high end IFR flight rules will
persist until 25/15-16z, with rapidly improving conditions
thereafter. Clouds will become scattered by early afternoon,
though there probably will be an increase in coverage with
diurnal cumulus development.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     NEZ015-018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
     Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to noon CDT Sunday for NEZ052-
     053.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for NEZ052-053.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 7 AM CDT Monday for
     NEZ011-012-016-017.
IA...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     IAZ043.
     Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to noon CDT Sunday for IAZ055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Fortin