815
FXUS63 KOAX 052317
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
517 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy freezing drizzle will continue before clearing from
  west to east later this evening. Slick roads and surfaces will
  impact the evening commute across much of eastern NE and
  southwest IA.

- A 20-40% chance of mainly light snow is expected across
  northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa late Friday night
  into Saturday, with a wintry mix possible in parts of
  southeast NE and southwest IA.

- Low snow chances (20-30% chance) return Monday into Tuesday.
  A mid- week cooldown is expected to bring highs into the teens
  and 20s next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

A shortwave trough pushing into the central Plains this afternoon
has brought warm air and moisture advection to the area ahead of its
arrival. Through the morning and early afternoon, a light
precipitation shield has pushed up from KS/MO, impacting much of
southeast NE and southwest IA. Model soundings this afternoon
continue to indicate a textbook freezing drizzle appearance, with
moisture mostly constrained to the lowest 1-2 km. Hence why the radar
appears clear this afternoon, the moisture for the most part remains
under the radar beam as a layer of fog/low-level clouds producing a
light and patchy freezing drizzle. This light precipitation shield
has pushed a row of counties further north and west than initially
anticipated, leading to an expansion of the Winter Weather Advisory
to include all counties in the CWA along and south of a line from
Platte to Shelby county. Have also opted to lower our high
temperatures today to peak in the upper 20s as the thick cloud
shield has kept highs below freezing across the area.

While ice accumulations are expected to be the greatest (0.05-0.08")
in extreme southeast NE and southwest IA, reports and continuing to
come in of slick roads and surfaces across much of the area included
in the Winter Weather Advisory. Take is slow and careful on the
evening commute. While side streets and neighborhoods will be the
primary concern, reports have started to trickle in of travel
impacts to some of the main roads in both the Omaha and Lincoln
metros. Precipitation chances will clear from west to east this
evening, with chances ending for the area by 6-9 PM, though
slick spots will persist on any untreated surfaces. Some patchy
fog will be possible in southeast NE and southwest IA into the
early overnight hours.

A cold front will push through the area during the overnight period.
Behind the front, northwesterly wind gusts may exceed 30 mph, with
the strongest winds expected in northeast NE. For areas receiving
freezing drizzle today, caution will likely be needed on any
untreated roads and surface for the Thursday morning commute as
well. Winds will calm into the afternoon as surface high pressure
builds into the area, bringing high temperatures into the low to mid
40s. These warmer temperatures tomorrow should help to melt
away and leftover ice accumulations.

Long Term (Friday and Beyond)

Another shortwave trough sliding east will help to push a weak cold
front through the area late Thursday into early Friday. Low to mid-
level frontogenesis will help to create a band of snow across
southern South Dakota early Friday morning, potentially bringing
light snow to areas along the NE/SD border. PoPs currently peak at
10% as model soundings show considerable dry air in the sub-cloud
layer that will need to be overcome. If the dry air can be overcome,
a quick 0.10" will be possible along the NE/SD border. The frontal
passage will not have much of an effect on Friday`s temperatures as
downsloping effects will brings highs back into the low 40s.

Precipitation chances (20-40%) return late Friday night into
Saturday as a shortwave trough pushes into the central Plains.
Similar to today`s event, warm air and moisture advection associated
with the disturbance will bring a light precipitation shield to
southeast NE and southwest IA. Additionally, mid-level frontogenesis
will bring a band of light snow to northeast NE. Focusing on the
southern portion first, model soundings look very similar to today`s
with a narrow saturated layer in the lowest few kilometers and no
ice in the cloud, indicating drizzle/freezing drizzle. In northeast
Nebraska, there is still some disagreement with long range guidance
with the latitude of the snowband. Most GEFS ensemble members keep
much of the measurable snowfall just to our north while the ECMWF
trends a bit further south, brings totals of 1-2" to northeast NE.
Between these two features, a light wintry mix will be possible,
with the latitude of the mix still somewhat uncertain.

Precipitation is expected to wrap up Saturday afternoon with high
temperatures in the low 30s to low 40s. Highs look to remain
generally in the 30s on Sunday and Monday. Precipitation chances (20-
30%) return late Monday through Tuesday as another shortwave trough
begins to impinge the area. For now, there is too much spread among
long range guidance with location and intensity to say much about
impacts, though snow appears to be the dominant precipitation type.
Through the next work week, a longwave trough will dig into the
western CONUS and bring a drop in temperatures to the area. Highs
Tuesday and Wednesday look to peak in the teens and 20s with
overnight lows in the positive and negative single digits.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 517 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to persist through this
evening into the overnight hours with -FZDZ continuing at KOMA
for the next couple of hours. A front will move through the
area overnight with south winds switching to northwest behind
the boundary. The winds will strengthen behind the front with
gusts up to 20-25 kt possible at KOFK and KOMA for 3-4 hours
before diminishing. Clouds will also clear with the passage of
the front through the area.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     NEZ042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Mead