219
FXUS63 KOAX 212315
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
615 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will drop into the region tonight, bringing
  chances for showers/storms.

- Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible
  Friday afternoon/night across the region. Periodic chances for
  showers and storms will be off and on through next week.

- Unseasonably cooler temperatures are expected beginning this
  weekend and continuing through the end of the forecast period.
  Highs will be mainly in the 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

The forecast period starts out with high pressure over the Four
Corners area this morning and an upper trough extending west to east
from British Columbia to Saskatchewan.

The HRRR near surface smoke and vertically integrated smoke models
have some patchy smoke continuing to impact the area through
tonight. With the high over to our southwest and northerly flow over
the Great Plains, it appears that the smoke is coming from wildfires
in Wyoming and/or Colorado. The higher concentrations are expected
to stay to our west, over central and western Nebraska. Despite
this, some patchy haze may be visible through tonight across the
forecast area. Winds will shift to the south after midnight,
reducing some of the smoke in the region.

For the rest of today, expect winds to remain light out of the
southeast. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s for areas east
of the Missouri River. Eastern Nebraska can expect mid-80s for areas
south of I-80, with upper 80s to low 90s possible in northeastern
Nebraska. Dry conditions are expected through this evening.

A cold front will drop in from the north tonight, bringing the
potential for a few showers and storms to northern Nebraska. Models
show a broken line of storms developing over south central South
Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle, moving to the southeast through
the day Friday. The cold front will continue southeast during the
morning, bringing a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms to areas north of
I-80 and a 20-50% chance for eastern Nebraska/western Iowa in the
afternoon. There is a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) of severe weather for
Friday, with wind and hail being the main concerns with any storms
that develop. Additional thunderstorm chances linger overnight. Some
uncertainty remains on the timing/location of the initial line of
storms reaching our northern border. Expect high temperatures to
reach the mid-80s to low 90s. Lows will range from the upper 50s
along the NE/SD border to the mid-60s along the NE/IA/MO border.

Cooler air filters in behind the front on Saturday, with a
noticeable change in temperatures expected by Sunday. Saturday highs
will top out in the mid-70s to mid-80s. Sunday is shaping up to be
much cooler, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. A weak shortwave
moving through the region may kick off a few showers and storms
Sunday morning.

The area will remain in northwest flow through the end of the
forecast period. Unseasonably cool temperatures (highs in the 70s,
lows in the 40s & 50s) will persist through the end of the forecast
period. Typical temperatures for this time of the year are in the
mid-80s for highs and lows in the low to mid-60s. Periodic shower
and thunderstorm chances are expected through the end of the
forecast as a few shortwaves move through.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Light southeasterly winds will be replaced by NNW winds behind a
cold front slipping through the area over the course of the day
on Friday. Expect that transition around 14Z at KOFK and after
00Z Saturday at KOMA and KLNK. Also of concern will be the
threat of strong or severe thunderstorms working NW to SE on
Friday afternoon, evening, or possibly overnight. Timing
confidence is low, but have hinted at best two hour time windows
in current TAFs with the BKN040 cigs at all three TAF sites.
(2000-2200 at KOFK and two hours later at Omaha and Lincoln.)

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Nicolaisen