747
FXUS63 KOAX 141808
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
108 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm today with highs in the low 90s for most locations.
  Patchy fog redevelops late tonight into Wednesday morning.

- Stretch of hot weather continues into the weekend. Heat
  indices will be around 100 to 105F at times from Friday into
  Sunday.

- Dry conditions expected through at least late Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

18z RAP objective analysis shows a 1020 mb sfc high along the
Missouri River Valley into western Iowa. Aside from a few
daytime cumulus clouds moving in from the south, should be a
relatively quiet and warm afternoon with highs reaching the low
90s at most locations. Heat indices warm to the low to mid 90s
too over much of the area. Dew points were raised slightly from
NBM guidance with this forecast update, given latest
observational trends suggesting NBM underdoing them by 6 to 8F
in some cases across portions of the forecast area the past few
days.

Lows tonight cool to the mid to upper 60s. Light and variable winds
late tonight into Wednesday morning combined with the high dew
points will lead to patchy fog development again, especially in any
river valleys and low lying areas. Fog will burn off after sunrise,
with another quiet day expected for Wednesday. Temperatures warm to
the low 90s for most locations with heat indices again in the
low to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

1000-500 mb thickness will continue to expand over much of the
central CONUS during the long term period. Expect highs to
steadily climb a few degrees each day, eventually reaching the
100F mark in some spots from Friday through the weekend. With
this forecast update, Saturday and Sunday appear to be the
hottest with widespread upper 90s to low 100s, and heat indices
in the 100 to 105F range. Will need to keep a close eye on those
days, particularly Sunday as we get close to Heat Advisory
criteria. Latest NWS HeatRisk guidance continues to highlight
portions of the area in the major risk category from Friday
through Sunday. This means that the risk of heat- related
impacts will likely be major and affect anyone without proper
cooling and hydration.

Shower and storm chances appear minimal (<10% chance) through at
least late Sunday when a more potent H5 wave from the Manitoba
area ejects southward and pushes the ridge axis west toward the
Rocky Mountains. While still several days out, there could be at
least some threat for strong storms as seen from the various
machine learning severe outlooks. Some of the parameterized
models do suggest a very low chance for some showers Thursday
afternoon driven by a lingering LLJ, but this largely stays
confined over TOP, EAX, and into Iowa.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals this
afternoon and evening. A few to scattered cumulus cloud deck
will advance from the south, lowering ceilings to 3,000-5,000
ft through at least 00z. Largely expecting this to remain in
VFR range, but can`t rule out a brief drop to MVFR (10% chance).
Winds from the south southeast remain generally under 12 kts
this afternoon, becoming calm overnight. As a result, could see
some fog develop but confidence on if terminals will be impacted
remains too low for inclusion in TAF with this issuance.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Castillo