450
FXUS63 KOAX 092019
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
219 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering cloud cover and intermittent light rain (30 to 50
  percent chance) is expected through tonight, particularly
  across northeast Nebraska.

- Cool, yet slightly above normal temperatures are expected this
  week, with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s, and lows in the
  30s and low 40s.

- The next chance for rain is with a quick moving system Tuesday
  night into Wednesday, bringing a 20 to 30 percent chance of
  rain to much of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

...Today and Tonight...

Current surface analysis shows the cut-off low positioned over
southwestern Nebraska. East of the low center, a dry slot has
protruded north into northeast Nebraska. As such, clearing skies
and drier weather is expected to continue across much of eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa until our cut-off system moves
northeast across the area later this evening and tonight. Light
rain and drizzle continue to persist around the low center, and
will bring a second round of precipitation (30 to 50 percent
chance of rain) to northeast Nebraska this evening and
overnight tonight. Any rainfall accumulations will likely remain
under 0.1 inches. Areas further south, namely south of US-30,
will remain dry for the most part (rain chances 10 to 20
percent).

...Tomorrow through Friday...

The weather pattern for our region will remain relatively quiet
heading into the work week. Upper-level flow looks to remain
largely zonal with a couple embedded low-amplitude
perturbations that traverse across the Plains: one on Monday and
another Tuesday night. The Monday disturbance looks to be the
weaker of the two, ushering in a weak cold front Monday night
and allowing nighttime lows to drop into the low and mid 30s.
This system will have very little moisture to work with. As
such, rain is not expected at this time.

Tuesday is when a stronger disturbance ejects out into the
central and northern Plains from the Rockies. There will be some
amount of moisture return ahead of this trough, with surface dew
points potentially rebounding into the 50s. However, medium
range guidance does not resolve a surface low anywhere in the
CONUS, instead placing it well north into Canada. Instead, the
main surface feature that will traverse the central CONUS
Tuesday night into Wednesday will be a Pacific cold front.
Along and ahead of this front, isolated showers may develop
bringing a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain for all of eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa. Rainfall totals are expected to
remain under 0.1" for any locations that do see precipitation
during this time frame. Post-frontal lows (Wednesday night) will
dip back down into the low and mid 30s.

Otherwise, the weather will remain mild, with highs around 60
degrees and lows in the upper 30s and low 40s. Just beyond the
forecast period into next week, there is some signal in medium
range guidance that the frequency of upper-level waves will
increases and favor a more active pattern. However, there is too
much divergence amongst model solutions to discuss any specific
storm systems or finite time frames that favor stormier weather
with any confidence as of now.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1101 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

     UPDATE as of 1747 UTC...

Clearing of low-level stratus and drizzle has accelerated across
much of eastern Nebraska. Have amended the KOFK TAF to account
for this.




Low stratus and mist/drizzle will continue to clear the area
south to north over the next 3 to 4 hours. IFR ceilings have
already cleared KLNK, and are expected to clear KOMA sometime
between 18Z and 19Z. There is more uncertainty around KOFK as
the low-center will track much closer to this TAF site. The most
likely scenario is IFR ceilings with brief periods of IFR
visibilities (more uncertain so have kept out of TAFs for now)
from patchy drizzle and mist that will continue through 21Z.
There is some uncertainty with regards to how much clearing KOFK
will experience in the cloud deck from dry-slotting. There is
some potential the cloud deck will scatter out between 21Z and
00Z, but the more likely scenario is that at least a broken
layer of MVFR stratus will prevail through 12Z tomorrow
morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah