954
FXUS63 KOAX 130850
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
350 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today and tomorrow with highs in the dipping into the
  60s and increasing rain chances this evening into Tuesday.

- Warming Wednesday into Thursday with increasingly gusty winds
  and highs returning to the 70s/80s.

- Another cold front sweeps through Friday, bringing in cooler
  but still comfortable conditions this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this morning features a quickly-pivoting,
negatively-tilting vorticity maximum over Manitoba/Ontario dragging
southwesterly mid/upper flow across the central CONUS with another
trough digging southward along the Pacific Coast. That
aforementioned trough continues to drag cooler air southward across
the Northern and Central Plains, with temperatures bottoming out in
the 40s to lower 50s and surface moisture being scoured out in
tandem this morning.

A much cooler day is in store for eastern Nebraska and western Iowa
today, with highs topping out in the 60s to a hair above 70 in
southeast NE/southwest IA alongside northeasterly winds an
increasing cloud cover. Above the surface at 850 mb, south-
southeasterly winds are expected to return with the lessening
influence of the departing system, spreading warm air advection
across much of the Central and Northern Plains. Working against
that warm air advection will be a southwesterly jet streak that
is set to strengthen with the digging Pacific Coastal trough to
the west to bring mid/upper level convergence, hampering the
amount of lift above 600 mb. What this should amount to is
spotty sprinkles and rain that should begin developing mid-day,
spreading northeast from Kansas and western Nebraska. Coverage
of what is expected to be light precipitation should gradually
increase over the course of the day, but particularly overnight
before peaking late Tuesday morning/midday. Most of the area is
currently forecast to receive 0.05-0.15" of rain through
Tuesday, which is better than we`ve seen over the past week but
not much in the grand scheme of things. Forecast soundings
depict MUCAPE limited to less than 50 J/jg, but that could be
enough to give us a rumble of thunder or two over the course of
the day. Expect a gloomy Tuesday with even cooler highs in the
upper 50s to 60s, a hair under normal for this time of year and
another thing pointing out how abnormally warm October has been
so far.

Wednesday and Beyond:

Our breath of crisp fall air won`t last too long, as a quick warming
trend sets in for the mid-to-late work week, as the upper pattern
sees the aforementioned coastal trough bottom out and begin pushing
through the Interior West, building up a ridge to its immediate
east. Highs hit the 70s area-wide Wednesday with 80s returning to
all but northeast Nebraska on a windy Thursday, with only low-end
chances for rain as a few mid/upper impulses are shot out through
the flow.

Late Thursday into Friday, that trough is then expected to eject
across the Central and Northern Plains, dragging another cold front
and associated baroclinic zone through the area. With the overall
system ejecting north of the area, we`ll find less efficient
moisture return ahead of the cold front further complicated by
daytime mixing to limit the instability available for storms in
addition to any rainfall, with extended-range ML guidance
signaling little severe threat associated with its passage.
Once the cold front pushes through, the main mid/upper trough
will deepen over the central CONUS and push us back down into
the low 70s/60s for highs this weekend, which should make for an
above-normal but nice weekend to spend outside doing fall
activities.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. Northerly winds will continue at 12 kts, gusting up to
20 kts before calming under 12 kts by 07-08Z. A few isolated
showers are possible overnight (15% chance). This potential has
not been included in the TAFs at this time due to the low
confidence in shower coverage.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Wood