774
FXUS63 KOAX 240616
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
116 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An active weather pattern continues this week, with multiple
  waves of showers and storms through Thursday night. Flooding
  and some severe weather are possible.

- Temperatures will fluctuate between the 70s, 80s, and 90s,
  trending more toward 90s late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Early this morning through tonight:

Latest mesoanalysis places the primary synoptic front from north-
central IA through east-central NE into west-central KS. An outflow
boundary remnant from Monday afternoon/evening storms was displaced
farther to the south in KS, generally along I-70. Strengthening low-
level warm advection has supported the development of showers and
thunderstorms near and just north of the surface front across
portions of eastern NE as of 1 AM. The 00z Omaha sounding
indicated a very moist air mass, with a precipitable water value
of 2.13", which is nearly double the daily mean, and near the
top of the climatological distribution. So, this early morning
convection will be capable of high rain rates, and we`re
monitoring for flash flood potential.

Mid-level ridging will strengthen across the region today, while at
the surface, the front is expected to remain quasi-stationary at
it`s current position. Given the building mid-level heights, large-
scale forcing for ascent will be minimal, with the surface front
likely serving as the primary focus for additional shower and
thunderstorm development later today into tonight. That is the
general scenario depicted by the CAMs, though there is
considerable spread in the specific details. Forecast soundings
in the vicinity of the front indicate weak mid-level lapse rates
and vertical shear, with the primary hazards being heavy rain
and locally strong wind gusts associated with wet-microburst
activity.

Tonight, there is some model signal that a weak mid-level
disturbance will progress from the central High Plains into our
area. In response, a nocturnal low-level jet develops, with
increasing warm advection and moisture flux supporting more
widespread shower and thunderstorm development. The heaviest
rainfall (two to almost four inches) on Monday occurred from
Tecumseh toward Brownville and Nemaha in southeast NE, and near and
northeast of Shenandoah in southwest IA. So, those locations would
be more susceptible to flooding with any overnight thunderstorm
activity.

Highs today will range from the 70s to around 80 north of the front,
to low to mid 80s south of it.


Wednesday and Wednesday night:

The surface front is expected to lift into northeast NE and west-
central IA late Tuesday night into Wednesday. At the same time,
another mid-level disturbance is forecast to glance the region
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, with considerable shower
and thunderstorm development expected in the vicinity of the
boundary at that time. Again, heavy rainfall and related flooding
are the primary concerns, with locally damaging winds also possible.

It looks like it will be warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s
to low 90s.


Thursday and Thursday night:

Another mid-level disturbance is forecast to progress through the
northern Plains, which in turn will encourage the southward advance
of the front through the area. That boundary will be the focus for
afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm development, with
flooding and locally strong wind gusts again both possible. Highs
are expected to be similar to those on Wednesday; in the mid 80s to
low 90s.


Friday through the weekend:

The 00z global models are in reasonably good agreement in the
progression of a shortwave trough through the north-central
CONUS this weekend, with another surface front moving into the
area on Sunday. While the forecast will indicate low PoPs on
Friday and Saturday, the better precipitation potential will
exist on Saturday night and Sunday, along and ahead of the
front. Highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s on Friday and Saturday
may cool slightly on Sunday with the arrival of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

MVFR ceilings have settled across most of the western half of
the area tonight. KOMA and KOFK are forecast to slip into IFR
category by 09Z Tuesday morning. Have removed IFR forecast for
Lincoln, but that certainly isn`t set in stone. Scattered
showers will be few but regular over the next 12 hours or so
before increasing in number on Tuesday afternoon. Some storms
will be strong to severe.

Expect generally light east to southeast winds through the TAF
period outside of thunderstorm winds. In fact, 20 knot winds are
going to be tough to find through 20,000 feet.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Nicolaisen