602
FXUS63 KOAX 082345
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
645 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in place until 8 PM today as heat
  index values reach 102-110.

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms are be possible
  overnight, with damaging winds being the primary concern.

- Cooler this weekend into Monday, with periodic rain chances.
  Localized flooding and some severe weather are possible,
  mainly in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

- Temperatures begin to turn warmer once again for the latter
  half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

     Remainder of this afternoon through tonight...

Forcing for ascent attendant to a low-amplitude disturbance
moving through the area has fostered widely scattered, elevated
convection across portions of eastern NE as of early afternoon.
Cloud bases are quite high (above 12,000 ft), so much of
precipitation is likely evaporating as it falls through a fairly
deep layer of dry, elevated-mixed-layer air situated above the
boundary layer. However, brief downpours are are possible with
any stronger storms that may develop through the remainder of
this afternoon into early evening. The increase in clouds has
slowed daytime heating in some areas. However, where skies have
remained mostly sunny, temperatures have warmed into the lower
90s with heat indices of 100-105. We will maintain the Heat
Advisory in effect until 8 PM.

Otherwise, 2 PM mesoanalysis places a surface low over eastern
SD, with a trailing cool front moving through central NE. That
boundary will continue east/southeast into the area tonight,
with current CAM guidance suggesting little in the way of
convective development along that feature. Better potential for
showers and thunderstorms is indicated behind the front,
generally after midnight. And even then, there is considerable
spread in model solutions, which leads to a low confidence
forecast, warranting only 15-30% PoPs. Some potential exists for
isolated severe weather, mainly in the form of damaging wind
gusts.


     Saturday through Monday...

A mid/upper-level low currently over MT and southern portions
of Saskatchewan and Manitoba is forecast to track toward Hudson
Bay, with broad troughing being maintained across the north-
central U.S. this weekend into early next week. At the surface,
the front mentioned in the previous section will continue to
slowly settle south on Saturday before stalling across the far
southeast part of our area from Saturday night into Sunday
night.

Generally weak forcing for ascent is forecast across the region
on Saturday, leading to considerable model variability in the
timing, coverage, and duration of any convection in the vicinity
of the front. By late Saturday night and continuing into Sunday
night, forcing for ascent is forecast to strengthen ahead of a
short-wave trough moving into the area from the west. That
forcing combined with the presence of the surface front will
serve as the focus for potentially more widespread showers and
thunderstorms, mainly along and south of I-80. Ambient PWs of
1.5-2.0" will support the potential for heavy rainfall and
related flooding concerns, which is highlighted by the WPC
slight risk for southeast NE and southwest IA on Sunday and
Sunday night. While not great, some severe weather is possible,
mainly in the form of damaging wind gusts.

By Monday, the front is expected to sag south of our area, with
precipitation chances decreasing.

A cooler, low-level air mass will filter into the area behind
the front with highs mainly in the 80s.


     Tuesday through Thursday...

The global models suggest that the southern portion of the mid-
level trough mentioned above will weaken as it slowly moves
east across the central Plains. The associated the surface
front is expected to dissipate, with south winds and warmer
temperatures returning to the region. Measurable precipitation
potential appears low (<20% PoPs).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

A few storms will linger near and east of the Missouri River
this evening, but should avoid TAF sites. Expect some low level
wind shear at LNK and OMA with southwest winds around 40 kts at
1500 ft agl and surface winds out of the south-southeast around
10 kts. Additional showers and storms are expected to develop
along a front moving through the area during the early morning
hours, but there remains a lot of spread in guidance regarding
exact timing, strength, and coverage. For now included SHRA
mention at OFK and OMA, but adjustments and inclusion of TSRA
may be needed (20-30% chance), with some potential for severe
storms. Otherwise, winds behind the front will become
northwesterly to northeasterly with some lingering clouds around
3000-4000 ft during the day.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...CA