169
FXUS63 KOAX 222002
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
202 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the
  weekend.

- A cold front Sunday afternoon will begin to usher in another
  polar airmass to the region, dropping high temps below normal
  for next week into the 30s and lows into the 10s/low 20s.

- Small chance (20-30%) of rain and snow next Wednesday, but
  little or no impacts expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Quiet weather continues into the weekend with a warming trend
expected, as an upper level ridge remains in place across the
Midwest. High temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper
40 to upper 50s for Saturday, with mostly sunny skies. And
similar high temperatures are forecast for Sunday ahead of a
cold front. This frontal boundary will begin to usher in much
colder, below normal temperatures for next week.

Some of the models suggest that there could be a small chance of
flurries or snow showers Sunday night into Monday as the colder
air moves in behind the frontal boundary, but NBM remains dry.
Will keep Pops out of the forecast at this time, but keeping an
eye on trends and wouldn`t be surprised if we eventually need to
add at least slight chance pops during that time. If any
precipitation does occur, it shouldn`t have a significant
impact.

Looking farther ahead in the forecast to the middle of next
week, there`s good agreement among models that another upper
level wave will be moving out of the Rockies. Operational runs
of the GFS/ECWMF/CMC seem to be trending farther south, but NBM,
which includes all flavors of the ensembles, still suggests
small 20-30% precip chances extend northward to the I80 corridor
Wednesday into early Thursday. And this would be a rain/snow
mix. Given the southward trends of the models, it`s looking
like better chances for any accumulation would be occurring
across KS/MO at this time, with little or no impacts in our
area. Again, will keep en eye on model trends over the next
couple of days, considering the expected increased travel
leading into the Thanksgiving holiday.

Looking farther ahead in the 6-14 day period, CPC continues to
call for below normal temperatures and an above normal chance of
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions through the period with winds less than 8 knots.
Despite the light winds, have included an additional change
group when wind directions switch local critical runway
thresholds.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...DeWald