315
FXUS63 KOAX 032312
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
612 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Intermittent rain is expected from tonight through Saturday,
  with chances peaking at 40-70%. However, rainfall amounts will
  likely remain light, with most areas receiving less than 0.10".

- Dry and seasonable conditions are expected from Sunday through
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Water vapor imagery shows strong southwesterly upper flow
across the southern US as the subtropical jet streaks from the
Baja Peninsula to New England with a deep low at H5. At the
surface, a cold front is pushing into North Dakota and a surface
low near El Paso, TX is forecast to ride along the stationary
front stalled across the Southeast and bring life-threatening
flooding over the next few days.

Here in the Corn Belt, a surface high has the weather
relatively pleasant thanks to wind speeds entirely under 10 mph.
Temperatures are uniform, too, within three degrees on either
side of 49 as of 2PM.

Light rain showers are possible tonight as a shortwave rounding
the western trof ejects north through western Nebraska. Most of
the showers and associated QPF will fall west of this forecast
area. I`ve cut PoPs to below 15% for all before midnight. PoPs
increase as the forcing for ascent increases. Two areas of
precip are expected with the first passing west and then north
of the area. This will push likely PoPs into the Knox County
area by mid-morning. The other area of likely PoPs passes just
to the south and southeast, with PoPs climbing above 50% for our
southern counties in the afternoon. Generally have cut rain
chances AND QPF by decent amounts as confidence in location of
precip grows (not here). PoPs in the northern half of the CWA
climb on Friday afternoon and evening as the Dakotan cold front
slips southeast. Rain showers will taper and end on Friday
night... but not before temps slip below freezing for areas
north and west of a line from Beatrice, NE to Sioux City, IA.
This may allow a few snowflakes to fall before the precip wraps
up. Snow accumulations aren`t expected, but the 75th percentile
of NBM members brings a dusting along the SD state line. This
would likely melt nearly as quickly as it fell.

Over the next 48 hours, QPF totals remain under 0.10" though a
little convection may lead to isolated greater totals.

Behind the front on Saturday, cooler conditions settle in on
breezy northwesterly winds. Highs peak near 50 degrees but it`ll
feel cooler in the breeze. As skies clear and winds diminish on
Saturday night, temps slip into the mid-20s which qualifies as a
hard freeze.

Sunday brings temperature moderation with sunshine and
downsloping westerly winds before another cold front on Sunday
night leaves Monday cooler once again.

.LONGER TERM...

A pattern shift is expected to develop by Tuesday or mid-week
as an upper ridge develops over the western half of the CWA and
brings warmer conditions. By Wednesday and Thursday, high
temperatures should strive for 70. In fact, the NBM`s QMD
suggests about 20% chance of reaching 80F on Wednesday...
growing to about 65% by the time we get to Sunday, April 13th.
The CPC`s current 6-10 day outlook is also on board with the
area`s chances leaning both warm and dry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

VFR conditions at TAF issuance with a east northeast wind less
than 12 knots. Clouds will thicken and lower through the forecast,
with showers developing at KOFK by 11-13z, and 17-20z at KLNK/KOMA.
MVFR ceilings also develop at KOFK by 17-20 as well.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...DeWald