206
FXUS63 KOAX 291723
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1223 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with heat index
  values near 100 are expected this weekend. Winds will be
  breezy, out of the southwest at up to 20-30 mph.

- There is a low chance (15-20%) of a few showers and
  thunderstorms across the area this afternoon and Sunday.

- Above-normal temperatures and periodic thunderstorm chances
  continue next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Today through Sunday...

An MCS, moving out of South Dakota/Minnesota into northern Iowa,
brought a couple of stray showers and rumbles of thunder to parts of
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa today. Behind this wave, an upper
ridge continued to shift eastward over the Central Plains. By noon,
temperatures had already pushed into the the low 80s, and are
expected to reach low to mid 90s later this afternoon. Gusty
southwesterly winds brought dewpoints into the mid 60s, which will
eventually lead to heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.

Patchy cloud cover and continuing southwesterly winds will keep
temperatures from dropping out of the 70s overnight, before the
thermal ridge centers over the region on Sunday. Temperatures will
likely bump up a few degrees from Saturday. The current forecast
calls for highs in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices pushing
into the low 100s. However, a leading shortwave, rippling through
the ridge ahead of an approaching trough, could throw a wrench in
that. A few showers and storms developing along this wave Sunday
morning and afternoon could take a few degrees off the high
temperatures, where cloud cover persists. In addition to providing
marginal relief from the heat, a few gusty winds or small hail could
be possible with any stronger storm that develops. But any severe
weather looks unlikely with ample CAPE but weak shear.

Monday and Beyond...

The upper ridge will shift west of the area Monday and flatten,
while the previously mentioned trough moves northeast, dragging a
weak "cold" front into the region and leaving us in relatively more
zonal southwesterly flow through the upcoming workweek. While
temperatures will dip by a few degrees, highs are expected to remain
well above normal, in the low to mid 90s.

The southwesterly flow will invite multiple shortwaves to ripple
through the region next week, bringing off and on chances for
showers and storms (15-30%). Confidence in the timing and extent of
these precipitation chances remains tied to subtle wave timing and
mesoscale details, which should become clearer with time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Southwesterly winds will remain gusty this afternoon, before backing
to the south and dropping to around 12 kts by 23Z. A few isolated
showers and weak thunderstorms may clip the KLNK area between 18-
20Z, but primarily dry weather is expected to prevail with VFR skies
and visibilities. LLWS will increase across southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa around 03Z this evening, but should diminish shortly
after 12Z Sunday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG