047
FXUS63 KOAX 221711
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1111 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will slowly warm heading into the weekend, with
  highs Saturday expected to be in the upper 40s/mid 50s.

- A cold front Sunday afternoon will usher in another polar
  airmass to the region, dropping high temps for next week into
  the 30s and lows into the 10s/low 20s.

- Rain and snow may wet highways for holiday travel mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Today and Saturday...

Clear skies allowed temperatures to plummet overnight. By 2 AM most
locations had reached the low to mid 20s. Subtle ridging will build
back over the central CONUS today, allowing warmer air to return to
the region. Highs today are expected to rebound into the upper 40s
and low 50s today, under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will drop
off into the 20s again tonight, as cloud cover remains sparse.
However, Saturday will be slightly warmer, bouncing back into
the upper 40s and 50s across the forecast area, as the ridge
progresses eastward.

Sunday and Beyond...

A shortwave traveling along the Canadian border will drag a dry cold
front through the region Sunday, yielding a downward trend in
temperatures through the upcoming holiday week. Temperatures will
dip back into the 40s and low 50s across most of eastern Nebraska
and southwest Iowa Sunday. Temperatures continue to trend downward
through the coming week, with highs in 30s and 40s through
Wednesday. By Thanksgiving day and and next Friday, many locations
could struggle to make it out of the low 30s. Low temperatures will
remain in the teens and 20s each night.

While deterministic models appear to agree on temperatures turning
colder next week, they are somewhat out of sync in regards to
precipitation timing and location. The ECMWF hints at light snow
having to contend with dry air over northeast Nebraska behind the
front early Monday morning. It then brings another burst of
rain/snow to southeast Nebraska and southern Iowa Wednesday morning,
as a midlevel trough passes through Kansas.

The GFS, on the other hand, brings a stronger burst of snow, with a
more saturated air mass, to northeast Nebraska, as a vort max moves
over the area Monday. However, it keeps the Wednesday/Thursday
system farther south, over southern Missouri, leaving our forecast
area dry.

Looking at ensemble members, less than 10% have 1" or greater
snowfall across our are through Monday, and about 10-15% have 0.5"
or more for the same time. However, around 30-40% of members show 1"
or greater for the majority of our forecast area through Wednesday.
For now, will maintain the NBM`s 20-30% pops for Wednesday, and
hedge toward dry air winning out with the frontal passage Monday.
But we will be keeping a close eye on the model trends to determine
when we could see the first flakes fly this season.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions through the period with winds less than 8 knots.
Despite the light winds, have included an additional change
group when wind directions switch local critical runway
thresholds.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...DeWald