390
FXUS63 KOAX 041049
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
549 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
  portions of northeastern and southeastern Nebraska. The storms
  to the north will bring moderate to heavy rainfall to areas
  that have already received several inches of rain earlier this
  week.

- Expect a gradual warming trend and periodic chances for
  showers and storms through the end of the work week.

- A deepening trough will move across the middle of the nation
  toward the end of the forecast period. This will bring a cool
  down and additional chances for showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 503 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move across portions of
eastern Nebraska this morning. Precipitable water values ranging
from 1.3 to 1.5 inches are in place across the area. Showers and
storms that are ongoing along and south of I-80 will move to the
southeast, out of the region later this morning. A secondary area of
thunderstorms continues to move across northeastern Nebraska,
bringing moderate to heavy rainfall to areas that received several
inches of rain yesterday. With the recent rain between yesterday and
today, flooding remains a concern. A Flood Advisory remains in
effect through 4pm this afternoon for southeastern Knox and north
central Pierce counties. There is a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall for today for a portion of eastern Nebraska. A weak
shortwave moves into the region tonight, bringing another chance
(20%) of showers and storms to areas north of I-80 after midnight.

A ridge sets up over the region Tuesday with dry conditions expected
during the daytime hours. A weak mid-level shortwave will move into
the region Tuesday evening. There is a 20-40% chance of showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday evening through sunrise Wednesday.

High pressure over the Desert Southwest and ridging over Nebraska
will be in place Wednesday through Friday. Expect a gradual warming
trend through the end of the workweek with temperatures returning to
the low 90s on Thursday and Friday. A series of disturbances will
move through the region Wednesday through Friday, bringing periodic
chances for thunderstorms Wednesday and Friday. Uncertainty remains
on how the severe weather threat will pan out with these weak waves
moving in. Wednesday has been outlooked for a Marginal Risk for
severe weather.

Over the weekend, a trough is expected to drop south into the
Dakotas and Nebraska. Uncertainty in the timing and path of the
trough remains at this time. Meanwhile, a cold front will drop in
from the north, cooling highs back down into the 80s on
Saturday and the upper 70s to mid-80s on Sunday. Additional
chances for showers and storms will be possible through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

MVFR conditions are expected this morning at the terminals with
ceilings ranging from 1000-3000. Showers and thunderstorms
continue to move across eastern Nebraska, tapering off by late
morning. Winds remain fairly light out of the south to
southeast. After midnight, there is a 20% chance of a few
isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity of KOFK.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW