692
FXUS63 KOAX 250836
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
236 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Decreasing chances (15-30%) of rain and snow next Wednesday,
  with little or no impacts expected.

- Much colder conditions are incoming for this weekend, where
  highs may not reach above-freezing for a good chunk of the
  area Friday on.

- Watching a quick-moving system that could bring light snow
  (around 20% chance) late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Today through Tuesday...

A smattering of flurries and patchy drizzle developed overnight
across parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa as cold air dove
into the region. Winds remained breezy overnight, with speeds up to
15-25 mph and gust as high as 30-35 mph. By 2 AM temperatures had
dropped to the 20s and 30s across the forecast area. Skies will
continue to clear today, as a surface high settles into the Central
Plains. Temperatures today will stay noticeably cooler than Sunday,
with highs only reaching the mid to upper 30s, with gusty winds
persisting through this afternoon.

Southwesterly flow returns to the region Tuesday, as the surface
high shifts to our southeast ahead of a shortwave coming out of the
Rockies. This will help bump up temperatures Tuesday afternoon,
reaching the mid to upper 40s.

Wednesday and Beyond...

By Wednesday, the previously mentioned surface low will deepen as it
travels across the southern plains. We`ll find ourselves on the
colder and drier side of the precipitation shield, directly north of
the surface system. Deterministic models continue to depict less and
less precipitation each update. PoPs currently remain at 15-30%
along and south of I-80 in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa
Wednesday. Any precipitation will primarily fall as rain, with some
light snow mixing in during the morning and evening hours. Overall,
little to no impacts are expected from this system.

The passage of the nearby deepening low will draw a prominent upper
ridge over the western half of the country in it`s wake, allowing
colder air to plunge through the Missouri Valley from the north.
Temperatures will tumble further and further going into the weekend.
Highs on Thanksgiving day will remain in the 30s. By next Sunday
most of the area could top out in the 20s. Overnight lows will
remain well below normal, bottoming out in the teens and single
digits.

A wave of positive vorticity advection could ripple through the
northwesterly flow late Friday into Saturday, bringing snow chances
back into the area. Will maintain slight chance PoPs for Friday
night/Saturday morning, given that this band could easily shift
north or south of the forecast area between now and the end of the
week. If you are traveling anywhere in the region for Thanksgiving
and the following weekend, be ready to bundle up and keep an eye on
where these systems shift, as somewhere close by may be dealing with
travel impacts and wintry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Overcast skies are generally between FL007 to FL015 producing
MVFR to IFR conditions across the area with breezy southeasterly
winds gusting 20-32 knots. Those winds will continue through
the morning before relaxing Monday afternoon. Expect ceilings to
slowly lift overnight before clearing around sunrise.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Nicolaisen