054
FXUS63 KOAX 271051
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
551 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat continues Monday, with peak heat index values
  of 105 to 115 degrees.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday
  evening into early Tuesday, with isolated strong wind gusts
  possible.

- Temperatures settles back into the upper 80s and lower 90s
  Tuesday into the work week, with precipitation chances
  returning Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Tonight and Monday...

Another very warm and humid day unfolded beneath the persistent mid-
to upper-level ridge. High temperatures reached the lower 100s at
many locations, while continued low-level moisture transport and
evapotranspiration maintained dewpoints in the upper 70s to low 80s.
This resulted in peak heat index values of 115 to 120 degrees.

Under performing convection this evening should allow for minimal
cloud cover into Monday morning, allowing another scorching day
across the area. However, a shortwave disturbance rounding the ridge
will drive a surface front southward through the region. Winds
behind the front will shift from southerly to northeasterly,
reducing low-level moisture transport and gradually lowering
dewpoints, but bringing in wildfire smoke with some near-surface
smoke expected to filter in through the day. Little temperature drop
is expected behind the front, in fact, the drier air mass may warm
efficiently during the day as a greater share of the available energy
goes toward sensible heating. High temperatures will again reach the
upper 90s to lower 100s areawide. Dewpoints will vary
considerably across the area, remaining in the upper 70s/low
80s across southwest Iowa while falling into the mid 60s across
northeast Nebraska behind the front. As as result, peak heat
index values are expected to reach 110 to 115 degrees across
southwest Iowa, with values generally near 105 degrees
elsewhere. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect across
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, with a Heat Advisory in
effect farther north.

Monday evening into early Tuesday, another shortwave disturbance
moving from the Front Range into western Nebraska will initiate a
round of thunderstorms to our west, with activity progressing
eastward. Instability will remain plentiful, though shear is
expected to weaken as the storms approach the forecast area. Even so,
forecast soundings show a favorable wind profile and DCAPE values
near 1250 J/kg, supporting the low-end potential for isolated wind
gusts of 45 to 60 mph if storms are able to maintain themselves into
eastern Nebraska. PoPs currently peak at 15-30%.

Tuesday and Beyond...

The aforementioned shortwave disturbance will dampen the ridge and
bring temperatures down on Tuesday, though highs will still reach
the low 90s and remain slightly above seasonal norms. Dewpoints will
also decrease into the upper 60s/low 70s. A few lingering showers
may continued Tuesday morning before gradually diminishing.

For the remainder of the work week, highs will generally range from
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Additional shortwave disturbances
rounding the ridge will bring periodic precipitation chances.
Confidence continues to increase in a more widespread round of
showers and storms Thursday into Friday as a stronger shortwave
disturbances crosses the northern Plains. PoPs of 60-75% are
currently in place, with the cloud cover keeping highs to the
mid 80s. Potential exists for a few strong to severe storms,
with GEFS and EPS based machine learning guidance painting a
5-15% probability from Nebraska into the Dakotas. We`ll have to
monitor how the details shake out as it approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 551 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF cycle. A
few observations sites northwest of KOFK have dipped to MVFR
visibility due to fog, but this should dissipate soon after
sunrise and is not expected to impact KOFK. A front will make
its way through the area today, switching winds from the south
to the north northeast. Have included a few lines at KOMA given
an abrupt wind shift is expected at the terminal. Some gustiness
of 20 to 25 kts may occur at KOFK behind the front in the
afternoon but should be short lived, and all sites see winds
less than 10 kts for the duration of the period. Some near
surface smoke may affect visibilities at terminals too once they
are behind the front, but uncertainty in regards to when visibility
drops will occur remains tricky to pin point. Finally, there is
a 15 to 30% chance for some showers and storms after 03z at
KOFK and KLNK. Have not included in TAF given low confidence,
but if storms form they could be strong to severe.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-
     012-015>018-030>034-042>045.
     Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043-
     055-056.
     Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-056.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Castillo