907
FXUS63 KOAX 042319
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
619 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain showers and drizzle gradually come to an end
  tonight.

- A cold front moves through the region tonight, with a chilly
  blustery day expected for Saturday. Sunday will be much more
  pleasant.

- Much of the week ahead will be dry with warmer temperatures,
  but there are a couple of small chances for rain (30%) Tuesday
  into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Scattered rain showers continue to stream across the region this
Friday afternoon as a short wave trough lifts northeast out
ahead of the deep larger scale trough currently over AZ. Another
storm system was moving over the top of the deep trough, across
the far northern Plains. This system will give a push to the
cold front which as of 3 PM was on the doorstep of Knox county.
As expected, today`s rain showers are associated with the
frontal zone to the northwest and the better elevated forcing
and frontogenesis from the southern system in our southern
areas. The rain in far southeast NE and southwest IA has been
light but pretty persistent, while the northwestern frontal zone
is a bit more showery. Expect the overall coverage in the
southeast to lessen in the coming hours while the advancing
frontal zone will continue to support rain showers and some
post-frontal drizzle through the evening. There is a pretty
good push of post-frontal cold and dry advection incoming, so
while there will be an uptick in showers or drizzle for a few
hours tonight, it will be pretty short lived and overtaken by
drier air, cooler temps, and gusty northwest winds by Saturday.
This will make for a pretty raw Saturday with temperatures
mainly in the 40s through the afternoon and wind chills ranging
from around 20 in the morning to around 40 by mid afternoon.
Sunday on the other hand, looks much nicer with a high around 60
and much lighter winds.

Model agreement is quite strong in another shot of cold air
making a glancing blow on the local area Sunday night into
Monday, but then transitioning into a more zonal pattern for the
middle of the week with warmer temperatures and a couple of
chances for light precipitation with the passage of weak fast-
moving moisture- starved short wave troughs late Tuesday into
Wednesday night. Then a stronger upper level ridge builds in,
bringing even warmer temperatures by late in the week into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

A cold front will be moving through the TAF locations. This will
bring spotty showers or drizzle, but ending at KOFK by 02z, and
KLNK/KOMA by 10z. There will also be a period of MVFR ceilings
behind the front, with a couple hours of IFR possible at KOFK.
Northwesterly winds will also increase to 18 to 28 knots that
linger through through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Barjenbruch/DeWald