933
FXUS63 KOAX 231802
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
102 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight
  into Friday morning. Patchy rainfall totals of 0.50 to 1 inch
  are expected, especially across southeast Nebraska.

- Highs will remain in the 70s today and rise into the 80s
  Friday before jumping into the 90s to near 100 degrees
  Saturday.

- Dangerous heat and humidity builds this weekend, with heat
  index values reaching 105 to 115 degrees Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Today and Tomorrow...

A few widely scattered showers are moving across the area this
afternoon as a shortwave disturbance crosses central Nebraska and
directs low-level moisture transport into the region. Rainfall
amounts this afternoon will remain light, generally limited to a
trace to a few hundredths of an in inch. Persistent cloud cover will
hold high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s. Northwesterly flow
aloft is also bringing a bit of wildfire smoke to the area, with
small concentrations making it the surface.

Precipitation chances will increase after midnight as another
shortwave disturbance pivots into the region. Strengthening low-
level moisture transport and a nocturnal LLJ directed into
southeast Nebraska will support another round of scattered
showers. Sufficient elevated instability will also be present
for a few embedded thunderstorms overnight, particularly across
southeast Nebraska.

The environment will support efficient rainfall production, with
PWAT values rising slightly above 2 inches, exceeding the 90th
percentile of sounding climatology, and warm-cloud depths reaching 4-
4.5 km. Rainfall totals will depend on where the heavier bands of
showers track but amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are expected across much
of the area, with isolated totals exceeding 1 inch possible. Latest
HREF guidance indicates a 40-80% probability of at least 0.50 inch
and a 30-60% probability of at least 1 inch, with the highest
probabilities across southeast Nebraska.

Showers will gradually clear from west to east Friday morning, with
most of the area dry by noon. Cloud cover will slowly break up and
improve behind the departing precipitation shield, allowing
afternoon highs to recover into the upper 80s across eastern
Nebraska and mid 70s towards southwest Iowa.

Saturday and Beyond...

Mid- to upper-level ridging will amplify and expand northeastward
into the region this weekend, resulting in a warming trend. A
corridor of 25 to 30 degrees C temperatures at 850 mb will spread
across the area, while continued low-level moisture transport and
evapotranspiration push dewpoints well into the 70s and potentially
near 80 degrees across southwest Iowa.

Confidence is high that the weekend will be hot and humid, with
model guidance continuing to trend upward on temperatures. GFS/GEFS
appear to mix too deeply into the very warm air aloft, producing
surface temperatures of 105 to 115 degrees that are likely too high.
EPS guidance appears more reasonable, with highs generally in the
upper 90s to around 105 degrees, though it maintains higher
dewpoints.

The latest forecast package calls for highs in the mid 90s to around
100 degrees Saturday, with heat index values from 100 to 105
degrees. Heat is expected to peak Sunday and Monday, when highs
reach the upper 90s to around 105 degrees and heat index values
climb into the 105 to 115 degree range. Heat headlines will likely
be needed, especially given the limited overnight relief as low
temperatures remain in the mid to upper 70s.

Confidence in Monday`s temperatures is somewhat lower as a shortwave
disturbance rounds the ridge, potentially weakening it and bringing
cloud cover/precipitation to the area. Long-range guidance remains
split on the exact timing and track of these disturbances, but a
front will likely move southward across the region sometime Monday
into Tuesday, shifting low-level flow to northeasterly and steadily
lowering dewpoints behind the front. The timing of this front will
be important, as an earlier passage could reduce peak heat index
values across portions of the area Monday.

Additional disturbances will move through during the work week,
gradually weakening the ridge and bringing highs closer to seasonal
norms in the upper 80s and low 90s Tuesday and beyond. Periodic PoPs
of 15-30% remain in place through the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions are favored into the evening, with a broken to
overcast cloud deck at FL060-090. A few widely scattered
showers will move across the area this afternoon, with the
highest chance of impacts at KLNK (30% chance). Showers will
increase in coverage after 24/06Z, with periods of rain likely
(70-90% chance) at every terminal into Friday morning.
Thunderstorm chances peak in southeast Nebraska, primarily at
KLNK. Ceilings will gradually decrease through this period, with
MVFR and patchy IFR conditions likely at all terminals. Showers
will clear from west to east, with ceilings improving just past
the end of the forecast period. Winds will remain calm and out
of the south, taking on a southeasterly component through the
period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood