275
FXUS63 KOAX 141053
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
553 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rainfall will continue filling in this morning, peaking
  around noon before exiting the area late this evening.

- Temperatures quickly warm back up on Wednesday and Thursday
  with afternoon highs reaching back into the 70s and even low
  80s alongside breezy winds.

- Another cold front sweeps through through the region on Friday
  bringing cooler temperatures and increased rain chances into
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Today:

Water vapor imagery this morning features a broad, postively-tilted
ridge pointing from Texas towards the Great Lakes region, with
southwesterly flow sandwiched between it and a positively
tilted trough based along the California Coast. In that
southwesterly flow is a mid/upper jet streak that is dumping out
over the Great/High Plains, with broad right exit region
subsidence fighting both an incoming shortwave over northeast
Colorado and a broad warm air advective regime over the forecast
area. Despite northeasterly winds and notable temperature-
dewpoint spreads, much of the column above the surface has had
plenty of moisture that has been realized by the aforementioned
forcing to fill in rain showers over the forecast area. Expect
light rain coverage to increase through the morning before
peaking around noon as the shortwave arrives and the warm air
advection is at its peak. The lack deep lift should only amount
to rather meager rainfall totals that should struggle to reach
0.1" aside from areas of northeast Nebraska that could see
double of that amount. Any remaining rainfall chances should
begin exiting the area completely after 7 PM, after highs top
out in the 50s in northeast Nebraska, with 60s across much of
eastern Nebraska and Iowa, and low 70s for parts of far
southeast Nebraska.

Wednesday and Beyond:

For Wednesday and Thursday, we`ll see the positively-tilted western
trough begin translating across the Interior West, becoming
neutrally-tilted as it does so. This will work to build up a
mid/upper ridge that the forecast area will be on the western
edge of, and help kick start a quick warmup over the course of
the two days. Highs Wednesday are forecast to hit the 70s and
80s (a bump of about 15 degrees over the previous day), with
Thursday seeing slightly warmer temperatures in the lower 80s
area-wide. As far as rain chances go for these two days, models
foresee weaker but still present warm air advection and slight
mid-level height falls driving spotty chances for light rain
across northeast Nebraska while better chances stay relegated to
western South Dakota. Signals for a breezy Thursday have
slightly lessened of yesterday`s forecast, making 40 mph winds
look unlikely and therefore decreasing any fire danger threat.

Late Thursday through Friday morning, that trough will continue its
ejection to the northeast and sweep a cold front across the area.
Forecast soundings along the front as it passes through show a
sheared but instability-lacking setup for anyone looking for a
thunderstorm or two, though the mass convergence in the low
levels may allow for some shallow rain showers as it passes.
Highs should take a dip into the 70s for Friday afternoon, with
additional decreases into the 60s for the what will a pleasant
weekend. Beyond Sunday, the forecast diverges considerable, and
is evident in the spread between the percentiles of the NBM max
temps. Global deterministic models differ wildly for the
evolution and timing of a trough entering from the west, but
what is sure is that our roller coaster of high temperatures is
set to continue into next week regardless of the timing of the
system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conditions start out the TAF period this morning, with a
bank of lower clouds and rain incoming from the southwest, set
to bring restrictions early into the TAF period at KOFK and
KLNK followed by KOMA by 15z. 16z to 21z is expected to have the
peak coverage of showers across the three terminals, with
ceilings between FL010-FL020 expected before clearing out.
Clouds will stick around alongside winds at 10 kts or less, with
IFR conditions spreading into the KOFK and KLNK terminals while
KOMA is expected to dodge them. Overnight and early tomorrow,
some drizzle and/or mist may stick around with those lower
ceilings, and could bring MVFR to IFR visibilities to go with
the ceiling restrictions.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen